When LLMs go head-to-head with expert human forecasters, they consistently lose. Metaculus Pro forecasters decisively outperformed the top AI models in recent tournaments. Turns out pattern recognition isn't the same as understanding complex systems.

Metaculus teammates here shielding themselves from sunlight / the outdoors, what's new. Thanks for a great event!

Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there

Join us in forecasting these critical questions. Your predictions matter now more than ever.

Explore all questions and compete here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

Special thanks to @brendannyhan.bsky.social and our partners at Bright Line Watch for their question contributions.

📈 Current community predictions on key questions:

Effective US tariff rate at end of 2026: 9.7%
Federal judge impeached by Republican Representatives before 2027: 20% probability
Party with House plurality after 2026 midterms: Democrats 78%, Republicans 21.9%

Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

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Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

Featured new questions:

Will the Supreme Court expand beyond 9 justices before 2029?
www.metaculus.com/questions/36...

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Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

We also offer services where we promote questions to many forecasters or to pro forecasters, including via tournaments. If you want to explore options like these, or publishing a set of questions, we're happy to help.

Hi, click sign up on www.metaculus.com and then use the +Create button to submit a question. Questions that are submitted with the guidelines in mind are much more likely to be accepted and to publish quickly: www.metaculus.com/question-wri...

In my book 'Think Clearly,' there is an entire chapter about the art & science of forecasting:

• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules

Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es