Metaculus
@metaculus.bsky.social
Metaculus is a forecasting platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events.
https://www.metaculus.com/home/
https://www.metaculus.com/home/
Reposted by Metaculus
How might the world look after the development of AGI, and what should we do about it now? Help us think about this at our workshop on Post-AGI Economics, Culture and Governance!
We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency.
post-agi.org
We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency.
post-agi.org
October 28, 2025 at 10:06 PM
How might the world look after the development of AGI, and what should we do about it now? Help us think about this at our workshop on Post-AGI Economics, Culture and Governance!
We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency.
post-agi.org
We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency.
post-agi.org
Reposted by Metaculus
U.S. DEMOCRACY THREAT INDEX
-- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...)
"This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."
-- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...)
"This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Political scientists warn that US democracy is under threat. Do forecasters expect US democracy to erode?
www.metaculus.com
October 22, 2025 at 11:32 AM
U.S. DEMOCRACY THREAT INDEX
-- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...)
"This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."
-- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...)
"This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."
Reposted by Metaculus
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
October 1, 2025 at 6:08 PM
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Reposted by Metaculus
When LLMs go head-to-head with expert human forecasters, they consistently lose. Metaculus Pro forecasters decisively outperformed the top AI models in recent tournaments. Turns out pattern recognition isn't the same as understanding complex systems.
October 1, 2025 at 11:48 AM
When LLMs go head-to-head with expert human forecasters, they consistently lose. Metaculus Pro forecasters decisively outperformed the top AI models in recent tournaments. Turns out pattern recognition isn't the same as understanding complex systems.
Reposted by Metaculus
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
Reposted by Metaculus
we have scanned the horizon (ably guided by @metaculus.bsky.social); I am now off to spend some time with some Fabian women
September 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
we have scanned the horizon (ably guided by @metaculus.bsky.social); I am now off to spend some time with some Fabian women
Reposted by Metaculus
New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
September 17, 2025 at 1:35 PM
New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Reposted by Metaculus
Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
August 25, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
Reposted by Metaculus
Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...
July 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...
Reposted by Metaculus
Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there
June 17, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race.
How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...
How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...
June 12, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race.
How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...
How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...
Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆
• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week
Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...
• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week
Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...
May 5, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆
• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week
Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...
• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week
Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...
This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested.
$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
May 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested.
$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
Reposted by Metaculus
A timeline vizualising AI forecasts from @Metaculus and @ManifoldMarkets
April 17, 2025 at 12:43 PM
A timeline vizualising AI forecasts from @Metaculus and @ManifoldMarkets
Reposted by Metaculus
In my book 'Think Clearly,' there is an entire chapter about the art & science of forecasting:
• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules
Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es
• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules
Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es
Kiko Llaneras' Website | Journalist and Writer
Kiko Llaneras' website, author of the book 'Think Clearly' and data journalist at EL PAÍS
kiko.llaneras.es
April 12, 2025 at 10:46 AM
In my book 'Think Clearly,' there is an entire chapter about the art & science of forecasting:
• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules
Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es
• The fascinating story of @Metaculus
• Ideas from two superforecasters
• And details about those rules
Here's the book ✨
thinkclearly.llaneras.es
Reposted by Metaculus
New @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting Qs contributed by Bright Line Watch to POTUS Predictions series; $15K prize pool
-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations
Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations
Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
www.metaculus.com
April 1, 2025 at 12:13 AM
New @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting Qs contributed by Bright Line Watch to POTUS Predictions series; $15K prize pool
-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations
Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations
Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order.
Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
March 31, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order.
Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...
Reposted by Metaculus
KEEPING AN EYE ON H5N1
19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.
19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.
March 15, 2025 at 12:59 PM
KEEPING AN EYE ON H5N1
19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.
19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.
Reposted by Metaculus
🔮 ¿Crees que puedes predecir 2025? 🔮
Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus.
¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios!
Descubre cómo participar👇
Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus.
¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios!
Descubre cómo participar👇
March 12, 2025 at 2:14 PM
🔮 ¿Crees que puedes predecir 2025? 🔮
Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus.
¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios!
Descubre cómo participar👇
Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus.
¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios!
Descubre cómo participar👇
Reposted by Metaculus
Oh, I should include a Thank you Metaculus for the opportunity to help the world by forecasting and giving my point of view to help the world by give good data on each issue I forecast on.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Brian H.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Brian H.
Just got this email-- Ryan Beck
Hi brianhelip,
Thank you for your participation in the short-term phase of the Biosecurity Tournament, which earned you 31st place in the leaderboard. Your winnings from this tournament are $103. You can find the final leaderboard here.
Hi brianhelip,
Thank you for your participation in the short-term phase of the Biosecurity Tournament, which earned you 31st place in the leaderboard. Your winnings from this tournament are $103. You can find the final leaderboard here.
February 20, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Oh, I should include a Thank you Metaculus for the opportunity to help the world by forecasting and giving my point of view to help the world by give good data on each issue I forecast on.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Brian H.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Brian H.
How capable will top AI models be in 2025?
Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA
— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/
Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA
— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/
March 27, 2024 at 9:18 PM
How capable will top AI models be in 2025?
Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA
— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/
Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA
— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/
Will we see:
• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?
Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.
Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/
• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?
Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.
Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/
March 13, 2024 at 9:01 PM
Will we see:
• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?
Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.
Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/
• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?
Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.
Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/
Building new nuclear power in the US is incredibly challenging, and Plant Vogtle's Unit 3 is the first new reactor in 30+ years.
When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US.
Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...
When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US.
Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...
Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?
The aggregate of 54 Metaculus community forecasters was 30% on Feb 26, 2024.
metaculus.com
February 26, 2024 at 7:59 PM
Building new nuclear power in the US is incredibly challenging, and Plant Vogtle's Unit 3 is the first new reactor in 30+ years.
When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US.
Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...
When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US.
Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...
Israel stated it will extend ground operations into Rafah unless Hamas releases captives before Ramadan.
Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12?
The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...
Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12?
The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...
Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?
The aggregate of 104 Metaculus community forecasters was 43% on Feb 23, 2024.
metaculus.com
February 23, 2024 at 7:31 PM
Israel stated it will extend ground operations into Rafah unless Hamas releases captives before Ramadan.
Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12?
The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...
Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12?
The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...