Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race.

How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...

Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆

• $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others
• Level up your forecasting skills
• Build your reputation
• New topical questions each week

Get started:
metaculus.com/tournament/m...

This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested.

$15k in prizes. New questions live:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order.

Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool.
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

How capable will top AI models be in 2025?

Forecast:
• LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities
• model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA

— in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/

Will we see:

• An IAEA-like international regulator for AI?
• Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible?
• Leading AI models evaluated by METR?

Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research.

Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/

🗳️ Which candidate will win Super Tuesday?
🥇 What country will lead the Summer Olympics medal table?

Metaculus is launching multiple choice questions: Forecast likelihoods across outcomes & automatically ensure probabilities sum to 100%.

Learn more & get started:
www.metaculus.com/questions/20...

We've launched our 3rd annual FluSight Challenge, delivering forecasts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with returning partner Lehigh University! Your predictions can help public health officials combat the spread of influenza: www.metaculus.com/tournament/f...

$5K in prizes (1/4)