McGarvy
@mcgarvy.bsky.social
it took me 6 years to get there but here we are
November 12, 2025 at 5:01 PM
it took me 6 years to get there but here we are
If I’m a republican, the thing I would be worried about right now is whether Trump’s actions in the past year have done permanent damage to Latino voters, cause a 30-40 point swing in one year is a lot more than just a vibe shift.
November 6, 2025 at 3:37 PM
If I’m a republican, the thing I would be worried about right now is whether Trump’s actions in the past year have done permanent damage to Latino voters, cause a 30-40 point swing in one year is a lot more than just a vibe shift.
This entire election can be summarized with this one map.
The Upper East Side and the incredibly wealthy 57th-79th street area voted **heavily** for Cuomo
The further uptown you go, the lower the average income is. By the time you hit 96th street and East Harlem, you’re in Zohran territory.
The Upper East Side and the incredibly wealthy 57th-79th street area voted **heavily** for Cuomo
The further uptown you go, the lower the average income is. By the time you hit 96th street and East Harlem, you’re in Zohran territory.
November 5, 2025 at 7:02 AM
This entire election can be summarized with this one map.
The Upper East Side and the incredibly wealthy 57th-79th street area voted **heavily** for Cuomo
The further uptown you go, the lower the average income is. By the time you hit 96th street and East Harlem, you’re in Zohran territory.
The Upper East Side and the incredibly wealthy 57th-79th street area voted **heavily** for Cuomo
The further uptown you go, the lower the average income is. By the time you hit 96th street and East Harlem, you’re in Zohran territory.
Mikie Sherrill improved over Kamala Harris’ margins in every single county. All of them. Every. Single. One.
November 5, 2025 at 5:14 AM
Mikie Sherrill improved over Kamala Harris’ margins in every single county. All of them. Every. Single. One.
Most of the remaining vote in NYC looks pretty favorable to Zohran. The Mamdate seems likely to survive.
November 5, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Most of the remaining vote in NYC looks pretty favorable to Zohran. The Mamdate seems likely to survive.
Sherrill might not be done yet. Most of the outstanding vote looks pretty favorable to her. She might expand her lead even further.
November 5, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Sherrill might not be done yet. Most of the outstanding vote looks pretty favorable to her. She might expand her lead even further.
Septum piercings rise up
November 5, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Septum piercings rise up
Cumtown for DNC Chair
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Cumtown for DNC Chair
Decision Desk predicting Eric Adams will NOT be the next mayor of NYC
November 5, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Decision Desk predicting Eric Adams will NOT be the next mayor of NYC
6pm update:
Manhattan - 73.1%
Brooklyn - 69.3%
Staten Island - 65.4%
Queens - 62.6%
Bronx - 54.3%
Total - 66.2%
+ mail ballots, we’re at 1.85m with 3 hours left. The story of the day, as it was on primary day, is the remarkable turnout in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The Mamdate seems inevitable.
Manhattan - 73.1%
Brooklyn - 69.3%
Staten Island - 65.4%
Queens - 62.6%
Bronx - 54.3%
Total - 66.2%
+ mail ballots, we’re at 1.85m with 3 hours left. The story of the day, as it was on primary day, is the remarkable turnout in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The Mamdate seems inevitable.
November 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
6pm update:
Manhattan - 73.1%
Brooklyn - 69.3%
Staten Island - 65.4%
Queens - 62.6%
Bronx - 54.3%
Total - 66.2%
+ mail ballots, we’re at 1.85m with 3 hours left. The story of the day, as it was on primary day, is the remarkable turnout in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The Mamdate seems inevitable.
Manhattan - 73.1%
Brooklyn - 69.3%
Staten Island - 65.4%
Queens - 62.6%
Bronx - 54.3%
Total - 66.2%
+ mail ballots, we’re at 1.85m with 3 hours left. The story of the day, as it was on primary day, is the remarkable turnout in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The Mamdate seems inevitable.
Mail-in ballots update:
NYC released the batch of accepted mail in ballots that will be included in tonight’s tally, which adds another 102k to the total.
Manhattan - 63.8%
Brooklyn - 58.4%
Staten Island - 54%
Queens - 51.6%
Bronx - 42.8%
6pm drop coming soon 👀
NYC released the batch of accepted mail in ballots that will be included in tonight’s tally, which adds another 102k to the total.
Manhattan - 63.8%
Brooklyn - 58.4%
Staten Island - 54%
Queens - 51.6%
Bronx - 42.8%
6pm drop coming soon 👀
November 4, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Mail-in ballots update:
NYC released the batch of accepted mail in ballots that will be included in tonight’s tally, which adds another 102k to the total.
Manhattan - 63.8%
Brooklyn - 58.4%
Staten Island - 54%
Queens - 51.6%
Bronx - 42.8%
6pm drop coming soon 👀
NYC released the batch of accepted mail in ballots that will be included in tonight’s tally, which adds another 102k to the total.
Manhattan - 63.8%
Brooklyn - 58.4%
Staten Island - 54%
Queens - 51.6%
Bronx - 42.8%
6pm drop coming soon 👀
3pm update:
Manhattan - 58%
Brooklyn - 56.2%
Staten Island - 50.4%
Queens - 47.9%
Bronx - 40%
Total - 51.9%
E-Day turnout hits 720k, and we’ve been averaging about 90k per hour through the late morning/early afternoon lull. Things are going to pick up from here on out.
Manhattan - 58%
Brooklyn - 56.2%
Staten Island - 50.4%
Queens - 47.9%
Bronx - 40%
Total - 51.9%
E-Day turnout hits 720k, and we’ve been averaging about 90k per hour through the late morning/early afternoon lull. Things are going to pick up from here on out.
November 4, 2025 at 8:17 PM
3pm update:
Manhattan - 58%
Brooklyn - 56.2%
Staten Island - 50.4%
Queens - 47.9%
Bronx - 40%
Total - 51.9%
E-Day turnout hits 720k, and we’ve been averaging about 90k per hour through the late morning/early afternoon lull. Things are going to pick up from here on out.
Manhattan - 58%
Brooklyn - 56.2%
Staten Island - 50.4%
Queens - 47.9%
Bronx - 40%
Total - 51.9%
E-Day turnout hits 720k, and we’ve been averaging about 90k per hour through the late morning/early afternoon lull. Things are going to pick up from here on out.
12pm update:
Manhattan - 49.7%
Brooklyn - 46.3%
Staten Island - 41.1%
Queens - 38.7%
Bronx - 30.7%
WOW. 460k votes in 6 hours. We might reach 2m total turnout by the end of the day. Brooklyn is making up one-third of the E-Day turnout.
Manhattan - 49.7%
Brooklyn - 46.3%
Staten Island - 41.1%
Queens - 38.7%
Bronx - 30.7%
WOW. 460k votes in 6 hours. We might reach 2m total turnout by the end of the day. Brooklyn is making up one-third of the E-Day turnout.
November 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
12pm update:
Manhattan - 49.7%
Brooklyn - 46.3%
Staten Island - 41.1%
Queens - 38.7%
Bronx - 30.7%
WOW. 460k votes in 6 hours. We might reach 2m total turnout by the end of the day. Brooklyn is making up one-third of the E-Day turnout.
Manhattan - 49.7%
Brooklyn - 46.3%
Staten Island - 41.1%
Queens - 38.7%
Bronx - 30.7%
WOW. 460k votes in 6 hours. We might reach 2m total turnout by the end of the day. Brooklyn is making up one-third of the E-Day turnout.
Really good sign for Mikie Sherrill in Somerset. Somerset indies leaned D in 2024 by 60/40 margins. Looking like Sherrill is up about 20 points here as of 10am. D+14 in ‘24.
November 4, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Really good sign for Mikie Sherrill in Somerset. Somerset indies leaned D in 2024 by 60/40 margins. Looking like Sherrill is up about 20 points here as of 10am. D+14 in ‘24.
First batch of E-Day check-ins. 190k votes through the first 3 hours. On pace for 1m E-Day votes.
Very concerning turnout signs for Cuomo in Bronx/Staten Island, his strongest boroughs. They make up about 20% of NYC voters but only made up 15% of the early vote, and only 17% of E-Day thus far.
Very concerning turnout signs for Cuomo in Bronx/Staten Island, his strongest boroughs. They make up about 20% of NYC voters but only made up 15% of the early vote, and only 17% of E-Day thus far.
November 4, 2025 at 2:26 PM
First batch of E-Day check-ins. 190k votes through the first 3 hours. On pace for 1m E-Day votes.
Very concerning turnout signs for Cuomo in Bronx/Staten Island, his strongest boroughs. They make up about 20% of NYC voters but only made up 15% of the early vote, and only 17% of E-Day thus far.
Very concerning turnout signs for Cuomo in Bronx/Staten Island, his strongest boroughs. They make up about 20% of NYC voters but only made up 15% of the early vote, and only 17% of E-Day thus far.
Polls close in 14 hours
November 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Polls close in 14 hours
Whoops, I lied. Another 136k votes dropped earlier today. This batch broke for Sherrill by 17%, increasing her total party ID lead to 290k. More bad news for Ciattarelli as the late EV turnout is not breaking in his favor.
November 3, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Whoops, I lied. Another 136k votes dropped earlier today. This batch broke for Sherrill by 17%, increasing her total party ID lead to 290k. More bad news for Ciattarelli as the late EV turnout is not breaking in his favor.
Early voting in New Jersey has finished and it’s all good news for Mikie Sherrill. Last year, Dems had an 11-point margin in the early vote by party ID. This year, they walk into Election Day with a 22-point margin, and Sherrill has at least a 200k vote lead to work with.
November 3, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Early voting in New Jersey has finished and it’s all good news for Mikie Sherrill. Last year, Dems had an 11-point margin in the early vote by party ID. This year, they walk into Election Day with a 22-point margin, and Sherrill has at least a 200k vote lead to work with.
Day 9 (and final): update
Manhattan - 75.3%
Brooklyn - 70.5%
Queens - 65.3%
Staten Island - 58.5%
Bronx - 51.5%
Over 150k ballots case on marathon day, by far the highest single day tally. The early vote turnout reached 68% of the total EV from 2024.
Manhattan - 75.3%
Brooklyn - 70.5%
Queens - 65.3%
Staten Island - 58.5%
Bronx - 51.5%
Over 150k ballots case on marathon day, by far the highest single day tally. The early vote turnout reached 68% of the total EV from 2024.
November 3, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Day 9 (and final): update
Manhattan - 75.3%
Brooklyn - 70.5%
Queens - 65.3%
Staten Island - 58.5%
Bronx - 51.5%
Over 150k ballots case on marathon day, by far the highest single day tally. The early vote turnout reached 68% of the total EV from 2024.
Manhattan - 75.3%
Brooklyn - 70.5%
Queens - 65.3%
Staten Island - 58.5%
Bronx - 51.5%
Over 150k ballots case on marathon day, by far the highest single day tally. The early vote turnout reached 68% of the total EV from 2024.
Day 8 update:
Manhattan - 61.8%
Brooklyn - 54.8%
Queens - 51.6%
Staten Island - 45.7%
Bronx - 40.6%
Whoo buddy. The biggest day of early voting by far with over 103k ballots. We’re probably looking at another big surge tomorrow for marathon day. We’re already at 54% of the ‘24 EV turnout.
Manhattan - 61.8%
Brooklyn - 54.8%
Queens - 51.6%
Staten Island - 45.7%
Bronx - 40.6%
Whoo buddy. The biggest day of early voting by far with over 103k ballots. We’re probably looking at another big surge tomorrow for marathon day. We’re already at 54% of the ‘24 EV turnout.
November 1, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Day 8 update:
Manhattan - 61.8%
Brooklyn - 54.8%
Queens - 51.6%
Staten Island - 45.7%
Bronx - 40.6%
Whoo buddy. The biggest day of early voting by far with over 103k ballots. We’re probably looking at another big surge tomorrow for marathon day. We’re already at 54% of the ‘24 EV turnout.
Manhattan - 61.8%
Brooklyn - 54.8%
Queens - 51.6%
Staten Island - 45.7%
Bronx - 40.6%
Whoo buddy. The biggest day of early voting by far with over 103k ballots. We’re probably looking at another big surge tomorrow for marathon day. We’re already at 54% of the ‘24 EV turnout.