Kalani o Māui
@mauiboymacro.bsky.social
Kamaʻāina | Entrepreneur | Investor | Wall St Alum | Former Financial Services Executive
Pinned
Tariff dividend? I’m still waiting for my DOGE dividend. 🤷🏼♂️
BREAKING: Trump has announced a $2,000 payment to most Americans, funded by U.S. tariff revenues.
November 9, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Tariff dividend? I’m still waiting for my DOGE dividend. 🤷🏼♂️
New Rule: You will die before your house is ever paid off. 👇🏼
JUST IN: US President Donald Trump has insinuated that he may recommend 50 year mortgages to the Americsn public on TruthSocial
November 8, 2025 at 10:08 PM
New Rule: You will die before your house is ever paid off. 👇🏼
So OpenAI wants a Federal backstop for data center investments so they can continue to spend ridiculous amounts of money which benefits Nvidia while Jensen tries to scare the Trump administration by saying China is tracking to win the AI race.
None of us have enough disdain for these people.
None of us have enough disdain for these people.
NVIDIA’S JENSEN HUANG SAYS CHINA ‘WILL WIN’ AI RACE WITH US: FT
November 6, 2025 at 2:07 AM
So OpenAI wants a Federal backstop for data center investments so they can continue to spend ridiculous amounts of money which benefits Nvidia while Jensen tries to scare the Trump administration by saying China is tracking to win the AI race.
None of us have enough disdain for these people.
None of us have enough disdain for these people.
Fuck off.
We’re in the “OpenAI-CFO-thinks-the-government-should-backstop-AI-financing” part of the cycle. 🤡
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 6, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Fuck off.
South Korea KOSPI 200 😳
November 5, 2025 at 1:59 AM
South Korea KOSPI 200 😳
Nikkei 225 Index 😳
November 5, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Nikkei 225 Index 😳
Reposted by Kalani o Māui
... preloading - "what's a phase transition?"
November 1, 2025 at 6:10 PM
... preloading - "what's a phase transition?"
Reposted by Kalani o Māui
On the subject of "alternative" valuation measures, note that this "valuation" measure matched current levels at the *beginning of the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 market collapses, surging to higher, presumably "overvalued" levels at 2002, 2009, 2020 recession lows, and after the 2023 market plunge.
November 1, 2025 at 5:53 PM
On the subject of "alternative" valuation measures, note that this "valuation" measure matched current levels at the *beginning of the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 market collapses, surging to higher, presumably "overvalued" levels at 2002, 2009, 2020 recession lows, and after the 2023 market plunge.
Job cuts hit a fresh high in October as private-sector related cuts surge, highlighting weakening demand for labor and continued labor shedding by firms.
@macroedgeres.bsky.social
@macroedgeres.bsky.social
October 31, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Job cuts hit a fresh high in October as private-sector related cuts surge, highlighting weakening demand for labor and continued labor shedding by firms.
@macroedgeres.bsky.social
@macroedgeres.bsky.social
Reposted by Kalani o Māui
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
October 30, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
Back to back Hindenburg Omens. 👇🏼
October 31, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Back to back Hindenburg Omens. 👇🏼
For the millionth time…
The "market" is just total shares outstanding. If you put cash "into" the market, you hand your cash to a seller. In return, they hand their shares of stock to you. Someone has to hold the pieces of paper and digital entries called "cash" until the Fed retires them.
There's no bucket in the middle
There's no bucket in the middle
October 30, 2025 at 4:28 PM
For the millionth time…
We recorded a Hindenburg Omen yesterday. 👇🏼
October 30, 2025 at 2:51 PM
We recorded a Hindenburg Omen yesterday. 👇🏼
Reposted by Kalani o Māui
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
October 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
There’s nothing that circular vendor financing and accounting fraud can’t accomplish. 👇🏼
JUST IN 🚨: Nvidia $NVDA becomes the first company in history to be worth $5 Trillion
October 29, 2025 at 2:58 AM
There’s nothing that circular vendor financing and accounting fraud can’t accomplish. 👇🏼
It’s a banger. 👇🏼
New comment is up! 🐳😉
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:41 PM
It’s a banger. 👇🏼
October Job Cuts 👇🏼
October 28, 2025 at 8:24 PM
October Job Cuts 👇🏼
OER (Owners Equivalent of Rent) is something I’ve spent a lot of time on in previous posts. 👇🏼
This has a more than 40% weighting in the CPI calculation, so if this trend continues (as I expect it to), deflation is the risk that almost nobody is talking about.
This has a more than 40% weighting in the CPI calculation, so if this trend continues (as I expect it to), deflation is the risk that almost nobody is talking about.
October 24, 2025 at 3:39 PM
OER (Owners Equivalent of Rent) is something I’ve spent a lot of time on in previous posts. 👇🏼
This has a more than 40% weighting in the CPI calculation, so if this trend continues (as I expect it to), deflation is the risk that almost nobody is talking about.
This has a more than 40% weighting in the CPI calculation, so if this trend continues (as I expect it to), deflation is the risk that almost nobody is talking about.
One of my all time favorites. 👇🏼
“Sideways” premieres 21 yrs ago today.
“I still don't know why he cast me,” Paul Giamatti said of director Alexander Payne. “I seriously thought this is some vast practical joke. .. I went out to dinner with him and he was, like, I really want you to do this movie and I wanted to go, ‘But why?’”
“I still don't know why he cast me,” Paul Giamatti said of director Alexander Payne. “I seriously thought this is some vast practical joke. .. I went out to dinner with him and he was, like, I really want you to do this movie and I wanted to go, ‘But why?’”
October 22, 2025 at 11:09 PM
One of my all time favorites. 👇🏼
Thread 🧵
Not my data, from a friend on X:
After a recent Jan 2025 retroactive reclassification of C&I and Consumer Loans finally started reporting into the FRED statistics.
Not my data, from a friend on X:
After a recent Jan 2025 retroactive reclassification of C&I and Consumer Loans finally started reporting into the FRED statistics.
What's one of the papers/articles you've read on NBFIs? I'm still at a lost of knowing the exact exposure.
October 21, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Thread 🧵
Not my data, from a friend on X:
After a recent Jan 2025 retroactive reclassification of C&I and Consumer Loans finally started reporting into the FRED statistics.
Not my data, from a friend on X:
After a recent Jan 2025 retroactive reclassification of C&I and Consumer Loans finally started reporting into the FRED statistics.
Considering that most of the gains in M2 have been the monetary base not money, makes Mark’s chart is even scarier.
October 21, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Considering that most of the gains in M2 have been the monetary base not money, makes Mark’s chart is even scarier.
With all due respect to Bob, traditional banks are loaning much more money to NDFIs, who are then making all the high risk loans. They just moved the risk, but it’s still systemic.
October 20, 2025 at 3:48 PM
With all due respect to Bob, traditional banks are loaning much more money to NDFIs, who are then making all the high risk loans. They just moved the risk, but it’s still systemic.
I don’t understand the trolling here. He made a call that was incorrect. But his track record beats almost everyone (amateurs and pros). 👇🏼
Does one bad call two years ago define you?
Does one bad call two years ago define you?
October 18, 2025 at 9:22 PM
I don’t understand the trolling here. He made a call that was incorrect. But his track record beats almost everyone (amateurs and pros). 👇🏼
Does one bad call two years ago define you?
Does one bad call two years ago define you?
