Maybe Johnson and the freedmen? (I'm just guessing, no source).

I’m perfectly willing to concede that my analysis is offering some terrible reasoning if your assessment of the ‘26 election is correct.

But I also don’t see how shutting down the government accomplishes anything of value in your scenario.

Assume your assessment is correct. How does shutdown now help anything? Wouldn’t a better time for drastic action be after you’ve won the election and reveal the regime to be illegitimately holding power? And in the interim do all you can to win that election?

Like, what’s success under a shutdown?

This is all meant to be optimistic, Tom. I'm sorry you are so down on the state of the country and our politics.

What probability do you assign to your theory being wrong? Seems like there might be some sort of Pascal's Wager to be had here strategically.

Fully admitting I'm no normie Dem, I'm not convinced you've correctly identified their current demeanor and/or possible electoral reaction to (non)events.

Well, that's certainly fair. If there's no point in contesting '26 because it literally can't be won by the opposition, the calculus definitely changes and strategic analysis based on winning it is moot/bad.

On the upside, if the Dems *do* win the '26 elections, we can falsify your assessment.

Six, I think.

Also, you aren’t trying to “not pay a heavy price.” You are trying to win. No one ever has.

Absent the shutdown fight, decent chance Clinton loses in ‘96. He was absolutely spiraling in 1995.

But I don't want to misconstrue your arg, because maybe you just think a shutdown isn't a worse option than not a shutdown, and the point is that a shutdown is actually the best policy/electoral move because it energizes people rather than depresses them. Also not obviously wrong! (tho I disagree).

But your argument seems to be that avoiding a shutdown might be the "least-worst option" but it's still bad because...it's "surrender?"

That doesn't make any sense to me, and seems like a pride argument of the form "the things that win feel bad so I'll feel good rather than win." 2/

I'm not sure I'm following your argument here. My view is that a shutdown right now will result in no policy gains and make the Dems worse off WRT the '26 election. If you disagree, totally reasonable. I could be wrong! 1/

Wait, what's the alternative to winning the next election?

My whole point is that shutting down the government is counterproductive to that end.

Thanks!