Matt Buford
@mattbuford.bsky.social
Storage is growing pretty fast on ERCOT:
July 25, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Storage is growing pretty fast on ERCOT:
Obviously energy intensive industry, especially that with lower margins, is going to go where energy is abundant and cheap vs. scarce and expensive.
If CA decarbonizes by pushing energy intensive industry to other states and then imports those products, have they really decarbonized?
If CA decarbonizes by pushing energy intensive industry to other states and then imports those products, have they really decarbonized?
June 6, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Obviously energy intensive industry, especially that with lower margins, is going to go where energy is abundant and cheap vs. scarce and expensive.
If CA decarbonizes by pushing energy intensive industry to other states and then imports those products, have they really decarbonized?
If CA decarbonizes by pushing energy intensive industry to other states and then imports those products, have they really decarbonized?
This is true, but I also think there's something to be said for decarbonizing while growing output vs. decarbonizing while just holding output steady for decades. Texas now produces 2.6x the electricity that California produces, and the difference is growing fast.
June 6, 2025 at 6:46 AM
This is true, but I also think there's something to be said for decarbonizing while growing output vs. decarbonizing while just holding output steady for decades. Texas now produces 2.6x the electricity that California produces, and the difference is growing fast.
And, it's not only population migration. Even if the population levels stay the same, if energy-hungry industries move from CA to TX, is CA really doing something to reduce pollution or are they just shifting it elsewhere?
(sorry, this chart source doesn't go back to 1990)
(sorry, this chart source doesn't go back to 1990)
May 26, 2025 at 3:41 PM
And, it's not only population migration. Even if the population levels stay the same, if energy-hungry industries move from CA to TX, is CA really doing something to reduce pollution or are they just shifting it elsewhere?
(sorry, this chart source doesn't go back to 1990)
(sorry, this chart source doesn't go back to 1990)
That's obviously a ridiculous caricatured example, yet in reality there was a dramatic difference in growth.
May 26, 2025 at 3:33 PM
That's obviously a ridiculous caricatured example, yet in reality there was a dramatic difference in growth.
While falling pollution is obviously the goal, holding it steady while having massive growth is a pretty good step in the right direction.
Take ERCOT for example. Massive growth while FF generation is basically flat. But yes, in the long term we do want/need it to actually go down.
Take ERCOT for example. Massive growth while FF generation is basically flat. But yes, in the long term we do want/need it to actually go down.
May 26, 2025 at 6:02 AM
While falling pollution is obviously the goal, holding it steady while having massive growth is a pretty good step in the right direction.
Take ERCOT for example. Massive growth while FF generation is basically flat. But yes, in the long term we do want/need it to actually go down.
Take ERCOT for example. Massive growth while FF generation is basically flat. But yes, in the long term we do want/need it to actually go down.
Beware of people using too-recent data. Many counter data sources keep increasing months after initially being posted, as reports trickle in late.
In this screenshot, Jan+Feb 2025 = 88
As of today, Jan+Feb 2025 = 175
Same period 2024 = 174
And still (slowly) rising.
In this screenshot, Jan+Feb 2025 = 88
As of today, Jan+Feb 2025 = 175
Same period 2024 = 174
And still (slowly) rising.
May 8, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Beware of people using too-recent data. Many counter data sources keep increasing months after initially being posted, as reports trickle in late.
In this screenshot, Jan+Feb 2025 = 88
As of today, Jan+Feb 2025 = 175
Same period 2024 = 174
And still (slowly) rising.
In this screenshot, Jan+Feb 2025 = 88
As of today, Jan+Feb 2025 = 175
Same period 2024 = 174
And still (slowly) rising.
I did some digging on the SPR design drawdown capacity and compared it to Biden's actual drawdown rate. The design drawdown capacity lowers as the caverns empty, but even so, it looks like we never even hit 25% of the drawdown capacity.
April 30, 2025 at 12:29 AM
I did some digging on the SPR design drawdown capacity and compared it to Biden's actual drawdown rate. The design drawdown capacity lowers as the caverns empty, but even so, it looks like we never even hit 25% of the drawdown capacity.
I'm not an expert, but I'd say it likely has a lot to do with electricity prices being so cheap in TX and expensive in CA.
April 24, 2025 at 7:17 PM
I'm not an expert, but I'd say it likely has a lot to do with electricity prices being so cheap in TX and expensive in CA.
Right, this is utility scale data from ERCOT. Rooftop is relatively small in Texas though. Here's a chart I have showing how including rooftop makes a big difference in CA but a small difference in TX:
April 24, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Right, this is utility scale data from ERCOT. Rooftop is relatively small in Texas though. Here's a chart I have showing how including rooftop makes a big difference in CA but a small difference in TX:
Here is ERCOT data through March, though note that this is 12 month trailing periods (not per-month numbers):
April 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Here is ERCOT data through March, though note that this is 12 month trailing periods (not per-month numbers):
As further proof that the February 2021 oil production dip was storm related, switch to the weekly chart and zoom in. Crude production was significantly lower than pre-inauguration levels for literally only 2 weeks, starting when Uri hit, then it jumped right back to where it was even before Biden.
March 31, 2025 at 12:36 AM
As further proof that the February 2021 oil production dip was storm related, switch to the weekly chart and zoom in. Crude production was significantly lower than pre-inauguration levels for literally only 2 weeks, starting when Uri hit, then it jumped right back to where it was even before Biden.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill has clearly stopped. Last year, Biden awarded contracts for SPR refill deliveries all the way through May 2025. However, the January deliveries were lower than expected, and the February deliveries were almost nonexistent.
March 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill has clearly stopped. Last year, Biden awarded contracts for SPR refill deliveries all the way through May 2025. However, the January deliveries were lower than expected, and the February deliveries were almost nonexistent.
She apparently doesn't know that Florida hates offshore drilling so much that they amended their constitution to ban it in all state waters. They don't even specify the Gulf of Mexico. It's all state waters.
www.flsenate.gov/laws/constit...
www.flsenate.gov/laws/constit...
March 4, 2025 at 3:27 AM
She apparently doesn't know that Florida hates offshore drilling so much that they amended their constitution to ban it in all state waters. They don't even specify the Gulf of Mexico. It's all state waters.
www.flsenate.gov/laws/constit...
www.flsenate.gov/laws/constit...
For the SPR discussion, our SPR 90 day obligation is based on net imports. As a net exporter, our IEA SPR obligation is 0 barrels.
IEA obligation dashboard:
www.iea.org/data-and-sta...
Current SPR days coverage (undefined/infinite):
www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...
IEA obligation dashboard:
www.iea.org/data-and-sta...
Current SPR days coverage (undefined/infinite):
www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...
February 28, 2025 at 1:24 AM
For the SPR discussion, our SPR 90 day obligation is based on net imports. As a net exporter, our IEA SPR obligation is 0 barrels.
IEA obligation dashboard:
www.iea.org/data-and-sta...
Current SPR days coverage (undefined/infinite):
www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...
IEA obligation dashboard:
www.iea.org/data-and-sta...
Current SPR days coverage (undefined/infinite):
www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...
Hmm, something is going on with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill. Biden already bought 3,465 thousand barrels for delivery to the SPR in February, but 21 days into the month there is no movement at all.
Maybe it got caught up in Trump's pauses?
Maybe it got caught up in Trump's pauses?
February 27, 2025 at 4:36 AM
Hmm, something is going on with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill. Biden already bought 3,465 thousand barrels for delivery to the SPR in February, but 21 days into the month there is no movement at all.
Maybe it got caught up in Trump's pauses?
Maybe it got caught up in Trump's pauses?
You can see this most clearly on days when there are low/negative prices for many hours. All the thermal gas/coal plants throttle down to their minimum and become almost flat lines with no changes, until prices rise again and they start throttling up again.
February 17, 2025 at 7:34 PM
You can see this most clearly on days when there are low/negative prices for many hours. All the thermal gas/coal plants throttle down to their minimum and become almost flat lines with no changes, until prices rise again and they start throttling up again.
It did end up breaking 2 GW:
February 17, 2025 at 12:42 AM
It did end up breaking 2 GW:
Nearly a 2 GW jump in the ERCOT solar record today:
February 16, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Nearly a 2 GW jump in the ERCOT solar record today:
Here's a map of Trump's offshore oil ban areas (the orange area):
February 15, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Here's a map of Trump's offshore oil ban areas (the orange area):
Biden's rescheduling of mandated SPR sales is visualized below.
Note that executing mandated sales early has no long term impact on SPR levels, which is why the current SPR forecast re-converges with the pre-Biden SPR forecast around 2028.
Note that executing mandated sales early has no long term impact on SPR levels, which is why the current SPR forecast re-converges with the pre-Biden SPR forecast around 2028.
February 12, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Biden's rescheduling of mandated SPR sales is visualized below.
Note that executing mandated sales early has no long term impact on SPR levels, which is why the current SPR forecast re-converges with the pre-Biden SPR forecast around 2028.
Note that executing mandated sales early has no long term impact on SPR levels, which is why the current SPR forecast re-converges with the pre-Biden SPR forecast around 2028.
Just a reminder that the Heritage Foundation is the origin of both the "we need to permanently drain the SPR" movement and also the "I can't believe Biden drained the SPR" movement.
February 7, 2025 at 5:09 AM
Just a reminder that the Heritage Foundation is the origin of both the "we need to permanently drain the SPR" movement and also the "I can't believe Biden drained the SPR" movement.
Biden executed many of the Republican mandated sales a few years earlier than mandated, but that oil was going to be sold soon anyway, even if Biden had never touched the SPR. It was required by law.
January 21, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Biden executed many of the Republican mandated sales a few years earlier than mandated, but that oil was going to be sold soon anyway, even if Biden had never touched the SPR. It was required by law.
They've done it before. Nearly all of the oil sold under the Biden admin was mandated to be sold by a Republican controlled Congress in laws passed from 2015-2018. This was done to fund those bills, of course.
January 21, 2025 at 1:10 AM
They've done it before. Nearly all of the oil sold under the Biden admin was mandated to be sold by a Republican controlled Congress in laws passed from 2015-2018. This was done to fund those bills, of course.
List of all winners of this third round of funding (note they're all government agencies):
January 15, 2025 at 8:55 PM
List of all winners of this third round of funding (note they're all government agencies):