Apparently $250b, just in cryptos, I wonder where they are gone.

I cannot avoid it. Every time I write "anything goes" I think of this :-)

In one week, we'll have the TSLA results. It's always an uncomfortable time for Tesla investors, as reality will intrude in Fantasyland. Fortunately, the effect is fleeting.

The Leading Economic Index kept its downward walk in August, expanding an uncommon divergence with the ever-rising stock market.

Mr. Bahnsen of the Dividend Cafe shares this chart. There is not much to add to it.

US market cap is again double the GDP. It's just numbers, I know, but somehow it seems reasonable that there must be some relation between the value of the traded companies and the total output of the economy. 150% was enough to puncture the Internet bubble in 2000.

On the topic of "hard" data resilience vs "soft" data negativity, we have the medium-hard LEI. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8% in March (revised downward from the –0.7% originally reported).

The market kept rising on diminishing breadth. Now four consecutive sessions with negative breadth. Indexes can go up on negative breadth, but the Magnificent 7 now aren't what they were. Wait till the McClellan oscillator closes up the lower dotted line, after being down it. Usually works.

Equal weight SP500 underperforming in the last sessions. McClellan Oscillator turning down on lackluster breadth. This is a market being hold up by the big names and little else. That's not a good structure.

The FX market, the most liquid and less emotional one, has never bought the "nicer headlines" narrative. The US dollar keeps subdued. Tonight, bonds again at their red lines, although the 30Y won't touch its by a smidge. It's like it's saving it for a special occasion.

So, tariffs. Big picture, the main characters are first, the EU, yes, they trade a *lot* more than China with the US. Second Canada and Mexico, yes each of them trade a lot more than China, then Southeast Asia considered as a block. And then China. China is just the poster child. (source: Wikipedia)

Container volume is going to drop next week, even more the week after. It reminds us that the consequences of the trade war have a delay to become apparent. Well that delay is mostly over, so perhaps next week we'll see some more action about ending the tariffs nonsense. #EconSky

This is a weekly chart of the SP 500. Look at the last weeks, then look at the rest. That should be enough to convince you that we are in a different environment. When the environment changes you change your mind. Don't think that the "markets always go up" mantra cuts it anymore. #EconSky

This is a chart of the first tariffs trade mini-war, end of 2018. Notice the first leg down, the two rebounds to the 200D average, and the final leg down, 20% total from max. We could be repeating history, only the second rebound is not guaranteed, and of course the 2019 recovery neither. #EconSky

The 9 trillion conundrum. 9 trillion is the amount of US Treasury debt to need refinancing this year. Talk about a second mortgage! Like a light-year, the enormousness of a trillion precludes imagination. Anything that derails the rollover can cause waves much bigger than any tariffs. #EconSky

GDPNow estimate for Q1 still very low. Some say that the humongous gold repatriations of late (caused by fear of tariffs) have discombobulated it, but won't affect the real GDP. OK, but I'm still trying to wrap my head around a estimate that uses data that won't be in the real one. #EconSky

Shiller's PE still on 35, even after the correction. One of the fundamental questions for investors is if the "neutral" PE, that was about 15 long time ago, has moved. It seems to have moved, but is the new normal 20 or 25, or other. Anyway 35 seems too disconnected from reality to be true. #EconSky

White House adviser expects US GDP growth of at least 2% to 2.5% in Q1. They should exchange views with the Atlanta Fed, a bit of a round table to reach a consensus...

Japanese bond yields at max (chart from tradingeconomics.com). US bond yields down a lot. Anybody remembering the carry trade? #stocks #EconSky