Market Thoughts
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Well, the fat lady sang, the cash market closed, and de verdict is in: It was a gallant rebound, but ultimately it closed under the last bottom. So we have a down leg from ATH, an up leg NOT reaching the previous top, and another down leg breaking the previous bottom. That's a turnaround setup.
November 18, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Well, the fat lady sang, the cash market closed, and de verdict is in: It was a gallant rebound, but ultimately it closed under the last bottom. So we have a down leg from ATH, an up leg NOT reaching the previous top, and another down leg breaking the previous bottom. That's a turnaround setup.
Lots of time still to the close, but now it doesn't look like a drill, but the real thing. A close like it's now, SP under 6600, VIX over 25, it would trigger a lot of automatic selling. Of course you have the buy-the-dip'ers and buybacks, and flows, but you just need to look at the tape.
November 18, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Lots of time still to the close, but now it doesn't look like a drill, but the real thing. A close like it's now, SP under 6600, VIX over 25, it would trigger a lot of automatic selling. Of course you have the buy-the-dip'ers and buybacks, and flows, but you just need to look at the tape.
SP absolutely has to rebound on open, or else. 0DTE option sellers sold puts between 6650 and 6600. That's something different, not a main put wall, they are covering their bets. That's the whole thing, though. At some point, they stop defending the levels and start covering themselves.
November 18, 2025 at 2:10 PM
SP absolutely has to rebound on open, or else. 0DTE option sellers sold puts between 6650 and 6600. That's something different, not a main put wall, they are covering their bets. That's the whole thing, though. At some point, they stop defending the levels and start covering themselves.
Euro stocks avoiding the fate of getting progressively redder by the astute trick of starting the session well in the red. Technical indicators are being broken on the euro indices, and they are not waiting today to see if the US cash once again saves its own levels.
November 18, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Euro stocks avoiding the fate of getting progressively redder by the astute trick of starting the session well in the red. Technical indicators are being broken on the euro indices, and they are not waiting today to see if the US cash once again saves its own levels.
Bitcoin reaches warp speed, downwards this time. Perhaps is Bitcoin, a value without the distractions of valuation, prospects, results or usefulness, telling us the truth about the change of mind of the momentum investors. The US futures, loaded with all that, stubbornly refuse to cross its red line
November 18, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Bitcoin reaches warp speed, downwards this time. Perhaps is Bitcoin, a value without the distractions of valuation, prospects, results or usefulness, telling us the truth about the change of mind of the momentum investors. The US futures, loaded with all that, stubbornly refuse to cross its red line
Another nasty Asian session and the US futures again kissing their red lines, crossing them at some moments. One has to ask, seeing the recurring weakness in the Asian sessions, if Japanese carry trade unwinding doesn't have a lot to do with it. With higher local yields and lower yen, it could be.
November 18, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Another nasty Asian session and the US futures again kissing their red lines, crossing them at some moments. One has to ask, seeing the recurring weakness in the Asian sessions, if Japanese carry trade unwinding doesn't have a lot to do with it. With higher local yields and lower yen, it could be.
Meaningful that gold keeps following the risk assets. Obviously its trend-following hot-money is still not purged. Looking at the chart it looks like more correction needed. On the other side, it might be the $4K magnet acting up. Like in the SP, breakout of the last daily bottom will clarify things
November 17, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Meaningful that gold keeps following the risk assets. Obviously its trend-following hot-money is still not purged. Looking at the chart it looks like more correction needed. On the other side, it might be the $4K magnet acting up. Like in the SP, breakout of the last daily bottom will clarify things
And here we are again. SP and Nasdaq kissing the line of no return. I expect another rebound, of course, if not today, tomorrow. But that's the funny part of it, you never know for sure. Specially worrying is the daily downtrend of GOOG, that should be more rewarded for expending lots of money.
November 17, 2025 at 7:50 PM
And here we are again. SP and Nasdaq kissing the line of no return. I expect another rebound, of course, if not today, tomorrow. But that's the funny part of it, you never know for sure. Specially worrying is the daily downtrend of GOOG, that should be more rewarded for expending lots of money.
A sense of déjà-vu today, with the Euro session getting progressively redder. I think I've seen this film and it doesn't end well. However, it's likely that the impending NVIDIA results will temper everybody. I don't know why, I mean what surprises can be expected from the results, but that's me.
November 17, 2025 at 1:51 PM
A sense of déjà-vu today, with the Euro session getting progressively redder. I think I've seen this film and it doesn't end well. However, it's likely that the impending NVIDIA results will temper everybody. I don't know why, I mean what surprises can be expected from the results, but that's me.
Euro stocks moderately in the red, as US futures green but losing brightness as the day goes on. Euro markets no longer believe the US futures, they know that now the cash market has its own ideas. Interesting will be what happens with Alphabet, that started very strong on new big data centers.
November 17, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Euro stocks moderately in the red, as US futures green but losing brightness as the day goes on. Euro markets no longer believe the US futures, they know that now the cash market has its own ideas. Interesting will be what happens with Alphabet, that started very strong on new big data centers.
Bitcoin keeps being unconvinced of the chance of upside. It took part half-heartedly in Friday's rebound, but, not having the option of resting during weekends, is again testing the lows of the candle that broke the $100K. Really, if you had 100 millions in Bitcoin, what would you be doing now?
November 16, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Bitcoin keeps being unconvinced of the chance of upside. It took part half-heartedly in Friday's rebound, but, not having the option of resting during weekends, is again testing the lows of the candle that broke the $100K. Really, if you had 100 millions in Bitcoin, what would you be doing now?
The only safe lessons from these past two weeks are for me:
- This is not the market of yore (say a couple of months ago). Something has changed.
-Bull is still not ready to give up. Not at this time of the year, not with so much money about to come to the economy, one way or the other.
- This is not the market of yore (say a couple of months ago). Something has changed.
-Bull is still not ready to give up. Not at this time of the year, not with so much money about to come to the economy, one way or the other.
November 16, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The only safe lessons from these past two weeks are for me:
- This is not the market of yore (say a couple of months ago). Something has changed.
-Bull is still not ready to give up. Not at this time of the year, not with so much money about to come to the economy, one way or the other.
- This is not the market of yore (say a couple of months ago). Something has changed.
-Bull is still not ready to give up. Not at this time of the year, not with so much money about to come to the economy, one way or the other.
Reverse repos facility almost dried, at $1.5 paltry billions. The US government has a coupe of good shots to keep rolling over short term debt (FAIR act and stablecoins), but won't probably be enough, so big QE in the future. Whatever the Fed might like to do, they won't let the Treasury default.
November 16, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Reverse repos facility almost dried, at $1.5 paltry billions. The US government has a coupe of good shots to keep rolling over short term debt (FAIR act and stablecoins), but won't probably be enough, so big QE in the future. Whatever the Fed might like to do, they won't let the Treasury default.
Introducing themselves into the market's narrative these last two weeks are the worries :
- AI debt and how it's going to be paid. See META and ORACLE as examples. Before it was supposed to be free cash flow.
- The legal but misleading devices used by hyperscalers to get AI expenses out of balance.
- AI debt and how it's going to be paid. See META and ORACLE as examples. Before it was supposed to be free cash flow.
- The legal but misleading devices used by hyperscalers to get AI expenses out of balance.
November 15, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Introducing themselves into the market's narrative these last two weeks are the worries :
- AI debt and how it's going to be paid. See META and ORACLE as examples. Before it was supposed to be free cash flow.
- The legal but misleading devices used by hyperscalers to get AI expenses out of balance.
- AI debt and how it's going to be paid. See META and ORACLE as examples. Before it was supposed to be free cash flow.
- The legal but misleading devices used by hyperscalers to get AI expenses out of balance.
The NASDAQ reached last week's bottom, the SP almost, and they both rebounded strongly. They had to, or else. They are not ready for the "or else". Next week NVIDIA results will surprise nobody by being excellent, but will give an excuse for anything. Till then I expect no breakout in any direction.
November 14, 2025 at 9:05 PM
The NASDAQ reached last week's bottom, the SP almost, and they both rebounded strongly. They had to, or else. They are not ready for the "or else". Next week NVIDIA results will surprise nobody by being excellent, but will give an excuse for anything. Till then I expect no breakout in any direction.
The NASDAQ has crossed its bottom from a week ago, till the futures thought that was none of their business, they should left that kind of decisions to the cash market, and rose a bit. NASDAQ is the engine of this bull, so perhaps it's more meaningful for it to cross the line than for the SP.
November 14, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The NASDAQ has crossed its bottom from a week ago, till the futures thought that was none of their business, they should left that kind of decisions to the cash market, and rose a bit. NASDAQ is the engine of this bull, so perhaps it's more meaningful for it to cross the line than for the SP.
Things are getting hairier, with the ABC trade (All But Cash) from just a week ago, changed to Cash Is King. Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, all is being sold for the dear fiat currency, so debased but so useful at the same time. However, to sign the bull's dead certificate, breaking SP 6630 is needed.
November 14, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Things are getting hairier, with the ABC trade (All But Cash) from just a week ago, changed to Cash Is King. Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, all is being sold for the dear fiat currency, so debased but so useful at the same time. However, to sign the bull's dead certificate, breaking SP 6630 is needed.
Yesterday, Oracle CDS spreads surpassed 100. I think that most crisis are debt crisis, when lenders start to worry about their money in the hands of these people, that suddenly don't seem so respectable anymore. So they buy insurance (CDS's), and the price of insurance rises.
November 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Yesterday, Oracle CDS spreads surpassed 100. I think that most crisis are debt crisis, when lenders start to worry about their money in the hands of these people, that suddenly don't seem so respectable anymore. So they buy insurance (CDS's), and the price of insurance rises.
Euro stocks solidly in the red, following the US market but less intensely, as investors know Euro valuations are more reasonable. Expect the pattern to continue if the correction goes on. SP 6700 is support, but the real McCoy will be the bottom of a week ago, 6630. If that is broken, run.
November 14, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Euro stocks solidly in the red, following the US market but less intensely, as investors know Euro valuations are more reasonable. Expect the pattern to continue if the correction goes on. SP 6700 is support, but the real McCoy will be the bottom of a week ago, 6630. If that is broken, run.
Gold came down too. Gold has now a duality imposed by the momentum crazy money. Now gold is no longer just a safe haven. As it has been rising a lot for a long time, the gigantic momentum crowd has chased it and they retire, rather counterintuitively, when risk rises. $4K keeps being a mind magnet.
November 13, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Gold came down too. Gold has now a duality imposed by the momentum crazy money. Now gold is no longer just a safe haven. As it has been rising a lot for a long time, the gigantic momentum crowd has chased it and they retire, rather counterintuitively, when risk rises. $4K keeps being a mind magnet.
This market has made me so conditioned that I fully expected a big last-hours rebound that would paint a less frightening candle. Nonesuch. Only the VIX was a bit subdued, probably the only damage control that they could afford, to avoid automated selling by volatility control funds. Ugly day.
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
This market has made me so conditioned that I fully expected a big last-hours rebound that would paint a less frightening candle. Nonesuch. Only the VIX was a bit subdued, probably the only damage control that they could afford, to avoid automated selling by volatility control funds. Ugly day.
In all the carnage, it might seem of not particular importance the fact of Bitcoin losing the 100K mark. It still has time to recover it and do like nothing had happened, it did just that a couple of days ago. If not, the headlines start printing, and lots of people can get nervous.
November 13, 2025 at 7:37 PM
In all the carnage, it might seem of not particular importance the fact of Bitcoin losing the 100K mark. It still has time to recover it and do like nothing had happened, it did just that a couple of days ago. If not, the headlines start printing, and lots of people can get nervous.
If the SP closes like that (6750) or lower, it would have made what I like to call a "well-thought-out evening star". The market takes two days to doubt about the upside, instead of the usual one, and then the big red candle. It's a sure (not really) sign of trend reversal (don't bet on it).
November 13, 2025 at 6:21 PM
If the SP closes like that (6750) or lower, it would have made what I like to call a "well-thought-out evening star". The market takes two days to doubt about the upside, instead of the usual one, and then the big red candle. It's a sure (not really) sign of trend reversal (don't bet on it).
TSLA set a top at the stockholders' meeting. If I had a conspiracy oriented mind, it would be oriented to somebody buying lots of calls till that day, and now the calls are expiring, expiring... But that's crazy, it's not like they had to vote something important that day...
November 13, 2025 at 4:13 PM
TSLA set a top at the stockholders' meeting. If I had a conspiracy oriented mind, it would be oriented to somebody buying lots of calls till that day, and now the calls are expiring, expiring... But that's crazy, it's not like they had to vote something important that day...
Euro session getting progressively redder, like a vampi... I guess I used that simile already, not long ago, which is meaningful. Futures up, cash down session are starting to be common, it would (anecdotally) seem. This matches a long honored process called distribution.
November 13, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Euro session getting progressively redder, like a vampi... I guess I used that simile already, not long ago, which is meaningful. Futures up, cash down session are starting to be common, it would (anecdotally) seem. This matches a long honored process called distribution.