Market Thoughts
@marketthoughts.bsky.social
The NASDAQ reached last week's bottom, the SP almost, and they both rebounded strongly. They had to, or else. They are not ready for the "or else". Next week NVIDIA results will surprise nobody by being excellent, but will give an excuse for anything. Till then I expect no breakout in any direction.
November 14, 2025 at 9:05 PM
The NASDAQ reached last week's bottom, the SP almost, and they both rebounded strongly. They had to, or else. They are not ready for the "or else". Next week NVIDIA results will surprise nobody by being excellent, but will give an excuse for anything. Till then I expect no breakout in any direction.
The NASDAQ has crossed its bottom from a week ago, till the futures thought that was none of their business, they should left that kind of decisions to the cash market, and rose a bit. NASDAQ is the engine of this bull, so perhaps it's more meaningful for it to cross the line than for the SP.
November 14, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The NASDAQ has crossed its bottom from a week ago, till the futures thought that was none of their business, they should left that kind of decisions to the cash market, and rose a bit. NASDAQ is the engine of this bull, so perhaps it's more meaningful for it to cross the line than for the SP.
Things are getting hairier, with the ABC trade (All But Cash) from just a week ago, changed to Cash Is King. Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, all is being sold for the dear fiat currency, so debased but so useful at the same time. However, to sign the bull's dead certificate, breaking SP 6630 is needed.
November 14, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Things are getting hairier, with the ABC trade (All But Cash) from just a week ago, changed to Cash Is King. Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, all is being sold for the dear fiat currency, so debased but so useful at the same time. However, to sign the bull's dead certificate, breaking SP 6630 is needed.
Yesterday, Oracle CDS spreads surpassed 100. I think that most crisis are debt crisis, when lenders start to worry about their money in the hands of these people, that suddenly don't seem so respectable anymore. So they buy insurance (CDS's), and the price of insurance rises.
November 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Yesterday, Oracle CDS spreads surpassed 100. I think that most crisis are debt crisis, when lenders start to worry about their money in the hands of these people, that suddenly don't seem so respectable anymore. So they buy insurance (CDS's), and the price of insurance rises.
Euro stocks solidly in the red, following the US market but less intensely, as investors know Euro valuations are more reasonable. Expect the pattern to continue if the correction goes on. SP 6700 is support, but the real McCoy will be the bottom of a week ago, 6630. If that is broken, run.
November 14, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Euro stocks solidly in the red, following the US market but less intensely, as investors know Euro valuations are more reasonable. Expect the pattern to continue if the correction goes on. SP 6700 is support, but the real McCoy will be the bottom of a week ago, 6630. If that is broken, run.
Gold came down too. Gold has now a duality imposed by the momentum crazy money. Now gold is no longer just a safe haven. As it has been rising a lot for a long time, the gigantic momentum crowd has chased it and they retire, rather counterintuitively, when risk rises. $4K keeps being a mind magnet.
November 13, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Gold came down too. Gold has now a duality imposed by the momentum crazy money. Now gold is no longer just a safe haven. As it has been rising a lot for a long time, the gigantic momentum crowd has chased it and they retire, rather counterintuitively, when risk rises. $4K keeps being a mind magnet.
This market has made me so conditioned that I fully expected a big last-hours rebound that would paint a less frightening candle. Nonesuch. Only the VIX was a bit subdued, probably the only damage control that they could afford, to avoid automated selling by volatility control funds. Ugly day.
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
This market has made me so conditioned that I fully expected a big last-hours rebound that would paint a less frightening candle. Nonesuch. Only the VIX was a bit subdued, probably the only damage control that they could afford, to avoid automated selling by volatility control funds. Ugly day.
In all the carnage, it might seem of not particular importance the fact of Bitcoin losing the 100K mark. It still has time to recover it and do like nothing had happened, it did just that a couple of days ago. If not, the headlines start printing, and lots of people can get nervous.
November 13, 2025 at 7:37 PM
In all the carnage, it might seem of not particular importance the fact of Bitcoin losing the 100K mark. It still has time to recover it and do like nothing had happened, it did just that a couple of days ago. If not, the headlines start printing, and lots of people can get nervous.
If the SP closes like that (6750) or lower, it would have made what I like to call a "well-thought-out evening star". The market takes two days to doubt about the upside, instead of the usual one, and then the big red candle. It's a sure (not really) sign of trend reversal (don't bet on it).
November 13, 2025 at 6:21 PM
If the SP closes like that (6750) or lower, it would have made what I like to call a "well-thought-out evening star". The market takes two days to doubt about the upside, instead of the usual one, and then the big red candle. It's a sure (not really) sign of trend reversal (don't bet on it).
TSLA set a top at the stockholders' meeting. If I had a conspiracy oriented mind, it would be oriented to somebody buying lots of calls till that day, and now the calls are expiring, expiring... But that's crazy, it's not like they had to vote something important that day...
November 13, 2025 at 4:13 PM
TSLA set a top at the stockholders' meeting. If I had a conspiracy oriented mind, it would be oriented to somebody buying lots of calls till that day, and now the calls are expiring, expiring... But that's crazy, it's not like they had to vote something important that day...
Euro session getting progressively redder, like a vampi... I guess I used that simile already, not long ago, which is meaningful. Futures up, cash down session are starting to be common, it would (anecdotally) seem. This matches a long honored process called distribution.
November 13, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Euro session getting progressively redder, like a vampi... I guess I used that simile already, not long ago, which is meaningful. Futures up, cash down session are starting to be common, it would (anecdotally) seem. This matches a long honored process called distribution.
Of particular interest, narrative-wise, is for me the outperformance of Apple these last sessions. Some investors are starting to consider that perhaps it wasn't so suicidal to refrain from building enormous data centers. It's a dangerous idea to have, so I expect more GigaWatts announcements soon.
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Of particular interest, narrative-wise, is for me the outperformance of Apple these last sessions. Some investors are starting to consider that perhaps it wasn't so suicidal to refrain from building enormous data centers. It's a dangerous idea to have, so I expect more GigaWatts announcements soon.
Euro stocks flat, with tech of all things outperforming. US futures a bit red with tech underperforming. The cracks in the AI narrative are widening. We are now entering the phase of stock selection: "This one bad (ORACLE, META), but this one good (NVIDIA, PALANTIR)". Before it was "anything goes".
November 13, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Euro stocks flat, with tech of all things outperforming. US futures a bit red with tech underperforming. The cracks in the AI narrative are widening. We are now entering the phase of stock selection: "This one bad (ORACLE, META), but this one good (NVIDIA, PALANTIR)". Before it was "anything goes".
Bitcoin following all downsides of the NASDAQ. Once again, Bitcoin shows that it's just part of the fantasy-values, that are bought because they go up, and go up because they are bought. When the fantasy gets a bit cracked in one part, it's apparently more contagious than measles.
November 12, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Bitcoin following all downsides of the NASDAQ. Once again, Bitcoin shows that it's just part of the fantasy-values, that are bought because they go up, and go up because they are bought. When the fantasy gets a bit cracked in one part, it's apparently more contagious than measles.
"The coldness spread first through the outer realms of the Empire", paraphrasing Mr. Asimov in his Foundation books. The most fantasy-loaded values are not bubbly anymore, are rather subdued. The hot core is NVIDIA, but NVIDIA is just a chip maker, an up and down industry if there is one.
November 12, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"The coldness spread first through the outer realms of the Empire", paraphrasing Mr. Asimov in his Foundation books. The most fantasy-loaded values are not bubbly anymore, are rather subdued. The hot core is NVIDIA, but NVIDIA is just a chip maker, an up and down industry if there is one.
Euro stocks solidly green on strength from US futures. They are very ready however to give up all gains on any show of weakness. The market keeps being bullish based on previous rise and conviction of eternal rise. The Buffet indicator indicates otherwise, but what does he know.
November 12, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Euro stocks solidly green on strength from US futures. They are very ready however to give up all gains on any show of weakness. The market keeps being bullish based on previous rise and conviction of eternal rise. The Buffet indicator indicates otherwise, but what does he know.
Euro stocks solid green on yesterday's US euphoria and some good results. All sectors green but defensives less so. US futures weak on NVIDIA redness, they need no more reasons. NVIDIA, notwithstanding yesterday's jump, looks toppy. However, flows are positive till end of year, so there is that.
November 11, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Euro stocks solid green on yesterday's US euphoria and some good results. All sectors green but defensives less so. US futures weak on NVIDIA redness, they need no more reasons. NVIDIA, notwithstanding yesterday's jump, looks toppy. However, flows are positive till end of year, so there is that.
Euro stocks strongly up, risk outperforming, all sectors green. Reason being the US market rebounding after euroland close, and more still in the futures. The euro markets are waiting for a correction in the US, to correct too though a bit less probably. But they see this is not the real one, so up.
November 10, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Euro stocks strongly up, risk outperforming, all sectors green. Reason being the US market rebounding after euroland close, and more still in the futures. The euro markets are waiting for a correction in the US, to correct too though a bit less probably. But they see this is not the real one, so up.
Finally, the all important SP level of the 6700 was saved on close. It had to be. Now we can go back to the uppity up mood, or the market makers will cover themselves and allow more downside. The seasonality keeps being positive, so it's a difficult call. Losing the 6700 should be key.
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Finally, the all important SP level of the 6700 was saved on close. It had to be. Now we can go back to the uppity up mood, or the market makers will cover themselves and allow more downside. The seasonality keeps being positive, so it's a difficult call. Losing the 6700 should be key.
The levels where automatic selling is triggered have been crossed. That's an advisory to navigators: beware the big waves. Trade defensively.
November 7, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The levels where automatic selling is triggered have been crossed. That's an advisory to navigators: beware the big waves. Trade defensively.
Yesterday, I wanted to pick the, I presumed, short time blowup of TSLA when the $1t conditional reward was approved, and short the stock. I know, I know, it's not a stock, it's a religion, but still. Anyway, couldn't do it, I missed the blowup, so fleeting it was. Seems like I missed an opportunity.
November 7, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Yesterday, I wanted to pick the, I presumed, short time blowup of TSLA when the $1t conditional reward was approved, and short the stock. I know, I know, it's not a stock, it's a religion, but still. Anyway, couldn't do it, I missed the blowup, so fleeting it was. Seems like I missed an opportunity.
Like a vampires film, the euro session has been getting progressively redder. Things are getting ugly. US futures are losing the supports, but of course that means nothing till the cash session runs. The Hindenburg and the Titanic are watching us with interest.
November 7, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Like a vampires film, the euro session has been getting progressively redder. Things are getting ugly. US futures are losing the supports, but of course that means nothing till the cash session runs. The Hindenburg and the Titanic are watching us with interest.
Euro markets flat-reddish, on ugly US session yesterday and recovery in the US futures overnight. So waiting to see what the cash market will bring. The VIX, that yesterday rose but not so much as I expected, keeps rising today even on green futures. The line in the sand is yesterday's lows in SP.
November 7, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Euro markets flat-reddish, on ugly US session yesterday and recovery in the US futures overnight. So waiting to see what the cash market will bring. The VIX, that yesterday rose but not so much as I expected, keeps rising today even on green futures. The line in the sand is yesterday's lows in SP.
On the upside, nothing technical was broken, the VIX kept under 20, so not too much automatic selling will be triggered. I would say that's deliberate. They expect tomorrow to be upwards, the week to be saved, and pray for the buybacks to come in force. I'd like to see the 0DTE levels for tomorrow.
November 6, 2025 at 9:15 PM
On the upside, nothing technical was broken, the VIX kept under 20, so not too much automatic selling will be triggered. I would say that's deliberate. They expect tomorrow to be upwards, the week to be saved, and pray for the buybacks to come in force. I'd like to see the 0DTE levels for tomorrow.
Today was, what in the professional analysis circles is known as an "ugly day". Not so much the drop size, but the lack of rationale, and the nasty close, selling pressure winning the day to the ODTE sellers, something rarely seen. Ah, to the Hindenburg Omen, we have added the Titanic Syndrome. Fun.
November 6, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Today was, what in the professional analysis circles is known as an "ugly day". Not so much the drop size, but the lack of rationale, and the nasty close, selling pressure winning the day to the ODTE sellers, something rarely seen. Ah, to the Hindenburg Omen, we have added the Titanic Syndrome. Fun.