Market Thoughts
@marketthoughts.bsky.social
Apparently, the automatic selling that I predicted would happen, is happening, only it's drowned by the shorts closing. Whatever, because the reason shorts are closing is because there are still enough buyers to hold the market. So flows are generally positive, and we exit the buyback blackout now.
February 10, 2026 at 11:08 AM
Apparently, the automatic selling that I predicted would happen, is happening, only it's drowned by the shorts closing. Whatever, because the reason shorts are closing is because there are still enough buyers to hold the market. So flows are generally positive, and we exit the buyback blackout now.
0DTE sellers have given the SP500 permission to close above the 7000 mark, by moving their posts a bit up. There is still resistance on 7000, but much diminished, then resistance increases gradually, so not much leeway, but the market can get its 7000 headline today. Tomorrow jobs rep., so harder.
February 10, 2026 at 11:05 AM
0DTE sellers have given the SP500 permission to close above the 7000 mark, by moving their posts a bit up. There is still resistance on 7000, but much diminished, then resistance increases gradually, so not much leeway, but the market can get its 7000 headline today. Tomorrow jobs rep., so harder.
Japan's Nikkei keeps very strong, as it should. The recently won supermajority of the government party makes a big wave of spending sure. Japanese bonds are not reacting, in a "sell the rumor, buy the news" kind of thing. At 18, Nikkei's PE is not cheap, but relatively to Nasdaq's 33 is not so bad.
February 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Japan's Nikkei keeps very strong, as it should. The recently won supermajority of the government party makes a big wave of spending sure. Japanese bonds are not reacting, in a "sell the rumor, buy the news" kind of thing. At 18, Nikkei's PE is not cheap, but relatively to Nasdaq's 33 is not so bad.
Euro stocks flat, with mixed sectors. Taking exception of the US last two sessions, where a short squeeze raised the stock dogs, the market is married to its new idea of "AI out, some tech out, cyclicals and value in". But it's still refining it, unsure of which parts of the old economy to buy.
February 10, 2026 at 9:54 AM
Euro stocks flat, with mixed sectors. Taking exception of the US last two sessions, where a short squeeze raised the stock dogs, the market is married to its new idea of "AI out, some tech out, cyclicals and value in". But it's still refining it, unsure of which parts of the old economy to buy.
Euro stocks slightly up on general positive flows to (relative) value. Nikkei euphoric after win of big spending PM on the elections. This euphoria will probably last, as did with Germany. Everybody however very wary of the US markets, nobody trusts them a bit, and Friday's rebound even less.
February 9, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Euro stocks slightly up on general positive flows to (relative) value. Nikkei euphoric after win of big spending PM on the elections. This euphoria will probably last, as did with Germany. Everybody however very wary of the US markets, nobody trusts them a bit, and Friday's rebound even less.
Today's Tradable Trends Thread:
Bitcoin is in a down trend, but is not tradable for me, due to its low cap and high level of manipulation (don't they usually come together)
Gold, silver were in a nice uptrend, but went parabolic and corrected. I prefer to leave parabolic things alone for a time.
Bitcoin is in a down trend, but is not tradable for me, due to its low cap and high level of manipulation (don't they usually come together)
Gold, silver were in a nice uptrend, but went parabolic and corrected. I prefer to leave parabolic things alone for a time.
February 8, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Today's Tradable Trends Thread:
Bitcoin is in a down trend, but is not tradable for me, due to its low cap and high level of manipulation (don't they usually come together)
Gold, silver were in a nice uptrend, but went parabolic and corrected. I prefer to leave parabolic things alone for a time.
Bitcoin is in a down trend, but is not tradable for me, due to its low cap and high level of manipulation (don't they usually come together)
Gold, silver were in a nice uptrend, but went parabolic and corrected. I prefer to leave parabolic things alone for a time.
According to SemiAnalysis.com, Anthropic is adding more revenue every month than OpenAI. I really think that the next big event in the AI story will be the implosion of OpenAI. Difficult to say which form will take, however. First ones damaged, Microsoft, Oracle. Then all the rest.
February 7, 2026 at 6:36 PM
According to SemiAnalysis.com, Anthropic is adding more revenue every month than OpenAI. I really think that the next big event in the AI story will be the implosion of OpenAI. Difficult to say which form will take, however. First ones damaged, Microsoft, Oracle. Then all the rest.
Bitcoin, after a strong rebound yesterday, is back on the downside. Remember that this whole leg down started with somebody selling strong on weekends. Then the price recovered, but not quite, during the week, rinse and repeat till something broke. So weekends are dangerous for longs.
February 7, 2026 at 9:40 AM
Bitcoin, after a strong rebound yesterday, is back on the downside. Remember that this whole leg down started with somebody selling strong on weekends. Then the price recovered, but not quite, during the week, rinse and repeat till something broke. So weekends are dangerous for longs.
Quote: "The Bitcoin downside is more worrying because there is no narrative, no known cause for it". I'll offer one. The main "raison d'être" of Bitcoin, having a digital wallet, is now taken by the stablecoins, better and cheaper. Only speculation remains, and there are a lot of competition there.
February 6, 2026 at 9:39 PM
Quote: "The Bitcoin downside is more worrying because there is no narrative, no known cause for it". I'll offer one. The main "raison d'être" of Bitcoin, having a digital wallet, is now taken by the stablecoins, better and cheaper. Only speculation remains, and there are a lot of competition there.
The reasoning of the market: "Well, we thought building AI data centers was a great idea, till we didn't. Now we think of it like a fool's errand. But what's certain is that they are going to stimulate the economy in general, and NVIDIA in particular. So there we are. But the AI dream is broken.
February 6, 2026 at 5:20 PM
The reasoning of the market: "Well, we thought building AI data centers was a great idea, till we didn't. Now we think of it like a fool's errand. But what's certain is that they are going to stimulate the economy in general, and NVIDIA in particular. So there we are. But the AI dream is broken.
Best sector by far in Europe today was construction. That's a sector poised to explode when a truce of some kind happens in the Ukraine. Does somebody know something that we don't? Or is perhaps just positioning for whenever happens. Something to follow.
February 6, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Best sector by far in Europe today was construction. That's a sector poised to explode when a truce of some kind happens in the Ukraine. Does somebody know something that we don't? Or is perhaps just positioning for whenever happens. Something to follow.
Euro stocks flat, with defensives massively outperforming. Rotation to value and yielding assets is the word of the day, but it has happened before and then the market mind switches track. Defensives are boring, after all. Automatic selling is triggered in the SP, so beware the bear traps.
February 6, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Euro stocks flat, with defensives massively outperforming. Rotation to value and yielding assets is the word of the day, but it has happened before and then the market mind switches track. Defensives are boring, after all. Automatic selling is triggered in the SP, so beware the bear traps.
In case anybody is confused by the ups and downs of the stock market, and think today was just one more such, well, it wasn't. We are now no longer on the top of the hill getting near to and then back from, the slippery slope. We are fully in the slippery slope, and have started to slide in earnest.
February 5, 2026 at 10:38 PM
In case anybody is confused by the ups and downs of the stock market, and think today was just one more such, well, it wasn't. We are now no longer on the top of the hill getting near to and then back from, the slippery slope. We are fully in the slippery slope, and have started to slide in earnest.
The real driver of the market today was Bitcoin. It's not a big market, but a lot of speculators were leveraged, so they have been either nuked or margin called. This will make them sell other things, hopefully with profits. What I mean is that these things chain.
February 5, 2026 at 9:23 PM
The real driver of the market today was Bitcoin. It's not a big market, but a lot of speculators were leveraged, so they have been either nuked or margin called. This will make them sell other things, hopefully with profits. What I mean is that these things chain.
So, in the end the bears carried the day, but it was not a K.O. However, we got a bad close, under 6800, and, probably more important in the medium term, a VIX over 20. If this keeps a couple of days, volatility control funds will sell, if they are not selling already. CTA's of course are at it.
February 5, 2026 at 9:07 PM
So, in the end the bears carried the day, but it was not a K.O. However, we got a bad close, under 6800, and, probably more important in the medium term, a VIX over 20. If this keeps a couple of days, volatility control funds will sell, if they are not selling already. CTA's of course are at it.
I watch the charts too much, I know, but today is special. It's like watching a fighting match between Ursus "The Claw" Bear, and John "The Horn" Bull. Well, really the bull is no bull but a lot of market makers that win a lot if the market remains in range, but I can have my own fantasies.
February 5, 2026 at 7:45 PM
I watch the charts too much, I know, but today is special. It's like watching a fighting match between Ursus "The Claw" Bear, and John "The Horn" Bull. Well, really the bull is no bull but a lot of market makers that win a lot if the market remains in range, but I can have my own fantasies.
Tesla and Palantir are clearly underperforming the indexes. The meme stocks ETF is down 6% too. Is the era of the fantasy stocks over? It never is, fantasy just change horses, but still, if you are in the wrong horse, it's perhaps time to revisit your assumptions.
February 5, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Tesla and Palantir are clearly underperforming the indexes. The meme stocks ETF is down 6% too. Is the era of the fantasy stocks over? It never is, fantasy just change horses, but still, if you are in the wrong horse, it's perhaps time to revisit your assumptions.
Very fast, the SP has moved down to the key support point al 6800. It should rebound there, and no mistake. If it closes down that point, a lot of automatic selling will be triggered, not to mention the effect on the VIX and vol control funds selling too. Still lots of time to the close, though.
February 5, 2026 at 3:18 PM
Very fast, the SP has moved down to the key support point al 6800. It should rebound there, and no mistake. If it closes down that point, a lot of automatic selling will be triggered, not to mention the effect on the VIX and vol control funds selling too. Still lots of time to the close, though.
Some bad signs for the market: automatic selling has been triggered for at least some operators, with the close under 6900. Also, 0DTE's have moved the posts down, with resistance now at 6800, so the road is free till there. Breadth is good, but I keep thinking that's just to hold the index levels.
February 5, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Some bad signs for the market: automatic selling has been triggered for at least some operators, with the close under 6900. Also, 0DTE's have moved the posts down, with resistance now at 6800, so the road is free till there. Breadth is good, but I keep thinking that's just to hold the index levels.
Euro stocks solidly red with Tech curiously outperforming. The famed rotation seems to have stopped rotating to euro values, for the moment. Bitcoin didn't join the end of session US recovery and is now in full crash mode. Results didn't got used to rebound either, so AI narrative seems quite dead.
February 5, 2026 at 9:53 AM
Euro stocks solidly red with Tech curiously outperforming. The famed rotation seems to have stopped rotating to euro values, for the moment. Bitcoin didn't join the end of session US recovery and is now in full crash mode. Results didn't got used to rebound either, so AI narrative seems quite dead.
The Roundhill Meme ETF is dropping 10% today. That's it, that's the end. I mean, if people start losing faith on random money-losing stocks pumped up with funny images, by some undocumented stranger in some podcast, then there is no more hope for this market.
February 4, 2026 at 5:20 PM
The Roundhill Meme ETF is dropping 10% today. That's it, that's the end. I mean, if people start losing faith on random money-losing stocks pumped up with funny images, by some undocumented stranger in some podcast, then there is no more hope for this market.
The fight of the SP not to lose the 6900 is epic. And curious, other days, like yesterday for example, options sellers had no problem letting it be crossed, to recover it at the session's end. But today they have gone full Gandalf on that level. I guess they fear that if lost today, is lost for good
February 4, 2026 at 4:17 PM
The fight of the SP not to lose the 6900 is epic. And curious, other days, like yesterday for example, options sellers had no problem letting it be crossed, to recover it at the session's end. But today they have gone full Gandalf on that level. I guess they fear that if lost today, is lost for good
European value stocks look better by the day. Today the FTSE 100, the lowest PE among the big Euro indexes, is outperforming the rest. The money leaving tech has to go somewhere, after all. Today it's going to bonds, who were discomfited earlier by the Treasury minutes, but now recover.
February 4, 2026 at 4:12 PM
European value stocks look better by the day. Today the FTSE 100, the lowest PE among the big Euro indexes, is outperforming the rest. The money leaving tech has to go somewhere, after all. Today it's going to bonds, who were discomfited earlier by the Treasury minutes, but now recover.
Nasdaq very disjointed from the SP, even if both share the same big fishes as big percentage of the total. SP keeps the 6900 by hitting the remaining 490 stocks. I keep saying that that strategy has a limit, but I keep being proved wrong, or at least early, which is the same in markets' play.
February 4, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Nasdaq very disjointed from the SP, even if both share the same big fishes as big percentage of the total. SP keeps the 6900 by hitting the remaining 490 stocks. I keep saying that that strategy has a limit, but I keep being proved wrong, or at least early, which is the same in markets' play.
Bitcoin is following the chart of the Nasdaq so closely that you can superimpose even the hourly charts, and they look the same. Something must been lost in the Bitcoin narrative, but I don't follow it, so cannot say what, only that the predictive value is now lost, is just same time follow.
February 4, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Bitcoin is following the chart of the Nasdaq so closely that you can superimpose even the hourly charts, and they look the same. Something must been lost in the Bitcoin narrative, but I don't follow it, so cannot say what, only that the predictive value is now lost, is just same time follow.