Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com
Pinned
Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
· Oct 20
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Failing the OC test is unusual for the higher-rated tranches of CLOs. The performance of the portfolio raises questions about the outlook for the broader private credit market, which has mushroomed in recent years but is now showing signs of weakness.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BlackRock Private Credit CLO Fails Key Tests as Bad Loans Mount
A portfolio of private credit loans managed by BlackRock Inc. has performed so poorly that the money manager has waived some management fees – a rarity in the credit world.
www.bloomberg.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:08 PM
‘Failing the OC test is unusual for the higher-rated tranches of CLOs. The performance of the portfolio raises questions about the outlook for the broader private credit market, which has mushroomed in recent years but is now showing signs of weakness.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
GOOGLE DEEPMIND CEO: “.. It feels like there’s obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing, really, being tens of billions of dollars. That seems a little unsustainable. It’s not quite logical to me.”
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
November 18, 2025 at 8:27 PM
GOOGLE DEEPMIND CEO: “.. It feels like there’s obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing, really, being tens of billions of dollars. That seems a little unsustainable. It’s not quite logical to me.”
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
$GOOGL
sources.news/p/demis-hass...
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
November 18, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
BofA FMS: FMS cash level drops to 3.7% from 3.8%
Lowest in 15 years
Lowest in 15 years
November 18, 2025 at 10:26 AM
BofA FMS: FMS cash level drops to 3.7% from 3.8%
Lowest in 15 years
Lowest in 15 years
“There is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand.” - Julian Robertson, March 2000
“My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” www.ft.com/content/cec3...
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry to close hedge fund as he warns on valuations
Asset manager famous for bet against US housing market says stock prices are unhinged from fundamentals
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:48 AM
“There is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand.” - Julian Robertson, March 2000
Reposted by Mark Dodson
This chart shows the explosion in the percentage of exchange-traded equity funds that use leverage, which recently soared to 33%, three times the prior peak in 2022.
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Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This chart shows the explosion in the percentage of exchange-traded equity funds that use leverage, which recently soared to 33%, three times the prior peak in 2022.
Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
Get investing and trading insights inside the #1 newsletter for Elliott wave: tinyurl.com/454j3h75
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
November 3, 2025 at 3:02 PM
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
This chart is going around and purports to show that EM central banks are behind rising gold prices. This chart is bogus. The rise in gold prices is driving up the gold share in central bank holdings. So this plots price against price. Volumes are stable.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
October 27, 2025 at 12:22 PM
This chart is going around and purports to show that EM central banks are behind rising gold prices. This chart is bogus. The rise in gold prices is driving up the gold share in central bank holdings. So this plots price against price. Volumes are stable.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Retail speculation isn’t just a U.S. story…
“Investing is often treated like gambling rather than long-term planning—almost like Squid Game.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Wipeouts Threaten Korea Retail Army Chasing Riskiest Investments
The nation’s mom-and-pop investors are piling into risky assets as they try to build enough wealth to buy a home.
www.bloomberg.com
October 22, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Retail speculation isn’t just a U.S. story…
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
October 20, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Today, working-class investors are flocking to all these markets: stocks, betting and crypto. They are beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance. Or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On.
Working-class investors are flocking to stocks, betting and crypto, beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance—or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.
www.wsj.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:53 PM
‘Today, working-class investors are flocking to all these markets: stocks, betting and crypto. They are beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance. Or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Equity FLASH Update - Citadel Securities
Citadel Securities is an award-winning global market-maker across a broad array of fixed income and equity products.
www.citadelsecurities.com
October 16, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨
October 16, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
October 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com
DailyChartbook.com
October 15, 2025 at 8:05 PM
"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com
DailyChartbook.com
Reposted by Mark Dodson
“It is precisely China’s belief that Trump will fold—as he appeared to do on magnets earlier this year—that has led them to massively escalate.” www.wsj.com/world/china/...
China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump
Chinese leader Xi Jinping thinks the president will fold before launching new tariffs that would roil markets.
www.wsj.com
October 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
“It is precisely China’s belief that Trump will fold—as he appeared to do on magnets earlier this year—that has led them to massively escalate.” www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Single-stock implied volatility is now very elevated relative to the S&P index volatility, with the gap surging to multi-year highs.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/780 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 2:15 PM
‘Single-stock implied volatility is now very elevated relative to the S&P index volatility, with the gap surging to multi-year highs.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/780 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Reposted by Mark Dodson
"It does not surprise me that we are seeing late-cycle accidents,” Rowan said on Tuesday. “I think it’s a desire to win in a competitive market that sometimes leads to shortcuts. In some of these more levered credits, there’s been a willingness to cut corners.” www.ft.com/content/f1b6...
Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards
Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns of ‘willingness to cut corners’
www.ft.com
October 15, 2025 at 3:28 PM
"It does not surprise me that we are seeing late-cycle accidents,” Rowan said on Tuesday. “I think it’s a desire to win in a competitive market that sometimes leads to shortcuts. In some of these more levered credits, there’s been a willingness to cut corners.” www.ft.com/content/f1b6...
'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com
October 15, 2025 at 4:54 PM
'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com
'The five-day average for call volumes in GLD recently hit a record, while those for its silver peer are at their highest since 2021.'
sherwood.news/markets/gold...
sherwood.news/markets/gold...
Gold and silver are the new meme stocks
Momentum. Flows. Options activity. Intense retail enthusiasm. It’s all there....
sherwood.news
October 15, 2025 at 4:52 PM
'The five-day average for call volumes in GLD recently hit a record, while those for its silver peer are at their highest since 2021.'
sherwood.news/markets/gold...
sherwood.news/markets/gold...
"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:31 PM
"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com