Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
November 18, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Fund managers: “Companies are over-investing.”
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
Also fund managers: near record-low cash and nearly max-long equities… otherwise known as over-invested.
sherwood.news/markets/fund...
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
November 3, 2025 at 3:02 PM
'US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom'
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Missed this one in the last post... 'Retail participation in the equity market (~22%) now stands at its strongest since February 2021.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
October 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
'Retail Call Option Frenzy: Retail call buying is hitting new record levels — a clear sign of renewed confidence.'
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
October 20, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
October 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com
DailyChartbook.com
October 15, 2025 at 8:05 PM
"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com
DailyChartbook.com
'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com
October 15, 2025 at 4:54 PM
'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com
"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:31 PM
"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com
'Companies still say that they intend to increase AI usage but actual adoption rates among large companies appear to have already peaked.' @peterberezin.bsky.social
October 14, 2025 at 6:04 PM
'Companies still say that they intend to increase AI usage but actual adoption rates among large companies appear to have already peaked.' @peterberezin.bsky.social
Inflation swaps, consumer surveys, and CPI diffusion data tell a different story...
'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...
'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...
October 14, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Inflation swaps, consumer surveys, and CPI diffusion data tell a different story...
'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...
'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...
In a month marked by headlines of circular AI deals, NVIDIA sits at the center – the world’s largest company – still flagged by Beneish M-Score as an earnings manipulator.
September 28, 2025 at 7:16 PM
In a month marked by headlines of circular AI deals, NVIDIA sits at the center – the world’s largest company – still flagged by Beneish M-Score as an earnings manipulator.
The AI infrastructure debate’s heating up, as spending on data centers set to outpace office construction
sherwood.news/tech/ai-infr...
sherwood.news/tech/ai-infr...
September 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
The AI infrastructure debate’s heating up, as spending on data centers set to outpace office construction
sherwood.news/tech/ai-infr...
sherwood.news/tech/ai-infr...
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model fires higher - Q3 at 3.9% thanks to stronger consumption and exports. www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
September 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model fires higher - Q3 at 3.9% thanks to stronger consumption and exports. www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
'The TLC includes only a household’s minimal needs: housing, medical care, transportation, groceries, child care, technology such as smartphones and internet connections, and miscellaneous expenses...Since 2001 the alternative index has risen 1.3 times faster than the CPI.' buff.ly/oDMVkS4
September 22, 2025 at 12:31 PM
'The TLC includes only a household’s minimal needs: housing, medical care, transportation, groceries, child care, technology such as smartphones and internet connections, and miscellaneous expenses...Since 2001 the alternative index has risen 1.3 times faster than the CPI.' buff.ly/oDMVkS4
If the average equity allocation in the US "fell" back to its 2000 peak, it would imply a 25%+ drawdown.
September 18, 2025 at 8:21 PM
If the average equity allocation in the US "fell" back to its 2000 peak, it would imply a 25%+ drawdown.
My go-to small-cap gauge, Value Line Median 3-5 Yr Appreciation Potential, just hit the bottom 5%. Since ’73, at today’s 35% they’ve returned only 2.6% next yr (vs 9.9% avg). Last here in Dec, but futures bets were heavier.
September 15, 2025 at 8:05 PM
My go-to small-cap gauge, Value Line Median 3-5 Yr Appreciation Potential, just hit the bottom 5%. Since ’73, at today’s 35% they’ve returned only 2.6% next yr (vs 9.9% avg). Last here in Dec, but futures bets were heavier.
"Inflation is broadening. Here's percent of items that had at least a 3 percent (annualized) price increase over the last month, something Waller used to flag the 2023 disinflation." - Mike Konczal
www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-440
www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-440
September 12, 2025 at 4:57 PM
"Inflation is broadening. Here's percent of items that had at least a 3 percent (annualized) price increase over the last month, something Waller used to flag the 2023 disinflation." - Mike Konczal
www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-440
www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-440
The average equity allocation in the US hit a record high in Q2. Record allocations, record concentration, record valuations... Full speed ahead - tracks uncharted.
September 11, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The average equity allocation in the US hit a record high in Q2. Record allocations, record concentration, record valuations... Full speed ahead - tracks uncharted.
'Investors are exuberant not just in the stock market, but in the gold and bond markets as well. That has hardly ever happened before, and it doesn’t bode well for any of these asset classes.'
www.marketwatch.com/story/invest...
www.marketwatch.com/story/invest...
September 9, 2025 at 5:15 PM
'Investors are exuberant not just in the stock market, but in the gold and bond markets as well. That has hardly ever happened before, and it doesn’t bode well for any of these asset classes.'
www.marketwatch.com/story/invest...
www.marketwatch.com/story/invest...
The bull market since 2022 has basically been a bet the Fed can't hold. The 2s-3m spread has sat under -50 bps (at least two cuts priced in) almost the whole way up - breaking the 1973 and 1979 records for deep inversions.
September 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM
The bull market since 2022 has basically been a bet the Fed can't hold. The 2s-3m spread has sat under -50 bps (at least two cuts priced in) almost the whole way up - breaking the 1973 and 1979 records for deep inversions.
Good piece, Conor. Honestly, I still get pissed every time I eat out and see the bill, and I’m uneasy about AI. …tried to capture that sentiment in a chart last week.
September 6, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Good piece, Conor. Honestly, I still get pissed every time I eat out and see the bill, and I’m uneasy about AI. …tried to capture that sentiment in a chart last week.
Our new global USD liquidity gauge (M2 + inst. money funds, large time deposits, RRP, Eurodollars). The ratio of stock market cap to this broad liquidity measure is back at dot-com levels - and it explains forward 10yr returns well.
September 5, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Our new global USD liquidity gauge (M2 + inst. money funds, large time deposits, RRP, Eurodollars). The ratio of stock market cap to this broad liquidity measure is back at dot-com levels - and it explains forward 10yr returns well.
Powell: “Expectations remain well anchored.”
Market: Inflation swaps back above 3%. Anchored?
Market: Inflation swaps back above 3%. Anchored?
September 4, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Powell: “Expectations remain well anchored.”
Market: Inflation swaps back above 3%. Anchored?
Market: Inflation swaps back above 3%. Anchored?
Powell: “Expectations remain well anchored.”
Consumers: 5yr consumer inflation expectations are +2 SD above average. Anchored?
Consumers: 5yr consumer inflation expectations are +2 SD above average. Anchored?
September 4, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Powell: “Expectations remain well anchored.”
Consumers: 5yr consumer inflation expectations are +2 SD above average. Anchored?
Consumers: 5yr consumer inflation expectations are +2 SD above average. Anchored?