Marc Chandler
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Political economist
Focus global capital markets
Focus global capital markets
Monroe Doctrine? Supposed to keep Europe out--
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
January 10, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Monroe Doctrine? Supposed to keep Europe out--
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
Trendline in $Euro being frayed.
Be prepared www.marctomarket.com
Be prepared www.marctomarket.com
November 11, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Trendline in $Euro being frayed.
Be prepared www.marctomarket.com
Be prepared www.marctomarket.com
USD is narrowly mixed, except for GBP, which is off around 0.4% after a flat CPI boosted chances of a rate cut as early as next week. This seems exaggerated. Volatility in gold and rare earth equities continues.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/flat...
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/flat...
October 22, 2025 at 10:11 AM
USD is narrowly mixed, except for GBP, which is off around 0.4% after a flat CPI boosted chances of a rate cut as early as next week. This seems exaggerated. Volatility in gold and rare earth equities continues.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/flat...
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/flat...
I think the market has not yet recognized the importance of Beijing's announcements over the past 48 hours. If enforced, they could be game changers. Or they could negotiating chits for US concessions (Taiwan, chips, etc)
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:
October 10, 2025 at 10:20 AM
I think the market has not yet recognized the importance of Beijing's announcements over the past 48 hours. If enforced, they could be game changers. Or they could negotiating chits for US concessions (Taiwan, chips, etc)
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:
Bessent in January 2024
September 10, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Bessent in January 2024
Thoughts on the yuan: marctomarket.com/2025/09/over...
Yes, the yuan is under-valued, most currencies are. The common element is an over-valued dollar. There are other fundamental drivers of fx besides trade balances. Consider JPY, more undervalued than CNY and trade deficit. tl;dr, spoiler:
Yes, the yuan is under-valued, most currencies are. The common element is an over-valued dollar. There are other fundamental drivers of fx besides trade balances. Consider JPY, more undervalued than CNY and trade deficit. tl;dr, spoiler:
September 3, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Thoughts on the yuan: marctomarket.com/2025/09/over...
Yes, the yuan is under-valued, most currencies are. The common element is an over-valued dollar. There are other fundamental drivers of fx besides trade balances. Consider JPY, more undervalued than CNY and trade deficit. tl;dr, spoiler:
Yes, the yuan is under-valued, most currencies are. The common element is an over-valued dollar. There are other fundamental drivers of fx besides trade balances. Consider JPY, more undervalued than CNY and trade deficit. tl;dr, spoiler:
September Monthly. Big month ahead.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/sept...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/sept...
September 1, 2025 at 11:31 AM
September Monthly. Big month ahead.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/sept...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/sept...
PBOC set the $USD fix at a new low for the year. The fix is the main way it manages the exchange rate. It has been moving the reference rate by a multiple seen at the start of the year. See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/mark...
tl;dr? Spoiler
tl;dr? Spoiler
August 25, 2025 at 10:16 AM
PBOC set the $USD fix at a new low for the year. The fix is the main way it manages the exchange rate. It has been moving the reference rate by a multiple seen at the start of the year. See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/mark...
tl;dr? Spoiler
tl;dr? Spoiler
The USD reversed lower ahead of the weekend, dragged lower by the drop in US rates, spurred by the changing risk assessment offered by Fed Chair Powell. Additional dollar losses look likely.
See marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
See marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
August 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The USD reversed lower ahead of the weekend, dragged lower by the drop in US rates, spurred by the changing risk assessment offered by Fed Chair Powell. Additional dollar losses look likely.
See marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
See marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
$USD has risen this week and appears to be discounting a hawkish Powell. Mkt vulnerable buy rumor sell fact. He might not be as hawkish as many expect but no panic, no 50 bp, not mistake last month. Supply and demand for labor is weakening.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/the-...
www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/the-...
August 22, 2025 at 10:19 AM
$USD has risen this week and appears to be discounting a hawkish Powell. Mkt vulnerable buy rumor sell fact. He might not be as hawkish as many expect but no panic, no 50 bp, not mistake last month. Supply and demand for labor is weakening.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/the-...
www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/the-...
@FT
claims $USD falling while long rates rise, but shows a chart of the 2-30 year yield curve. Claims fiscal dominance, but Fed has kept rates higher than fiscal authorities want. Highest core CPI in 5 months.
$USD and 30yr yield do not move in sync. No new.
claims $USD falling while long rates rise, but shows a chart of the 2-30 year yield curve. Claims fiscal dominance, but Fed has kept rates higher than fiscal authorities want. Highest core CPI in 5 months.
$USD and 30yr yield do not move in sync. No new.
August 20, 2025 at 12:19 PM
@FT
claims $USD falling while long rates rise, but shows a chart of the 2-30 year yield curve. Claims fiscal dominance, but Fed has kept rates higher than fiscal authorities want. Highest core CPI in 5 months.
$USD and 30yr yield do not move in sync. No new.
claims $USD falling while long rates rise, but shows a chart of the 2-30 year yield curve. Claims fiscal dominance, but Fed has kept rates higher than fiscal authorities want. Highest core CPI in 5 months.
$USD and 30yr yield do not move in sync. No new.
New 10-year highs in Shanghai. In July large capital outflows--mainland bought bonds on HK connect and foreigners reduced Chinese bond holdings. Global funds look underweight Chinese equities. PBOC gradually lower USD fix. See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/kiwi...
Spoiler:
Spoiler:
August 20, 2025 at 11:50 AM
New 10-year highs in Shanghai. In July large capital outflows--mainland bought bonds on HK connect and foreigners reduced Chinese bond holdings. Global funds look underweight Chinese equities. PBOC gradually lower USD fix. See www.marctomarket.com/2025/08/kiwi...
Spoiler:
Spoiler:
Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed's Hand?: The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The… marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
August 17, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed's Hand?: The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The… marctomarket.com/2025/08/week...
At the last press conference, Powell explained why the key metric now is the unemployment rate not the job growth as both the supply and demand for labor has fallen. See marctomarket.com/2025/08/tell...
tl;dr? Spoiler:
tl;dr? Spoiler:
August 14, 2025 at 12:12 PM
At the last press conference, Powell explained why the key metric now is the unemployment rate not the job growth as both the supply and demand for labor has fallen. See marctomarket.com/2025/08/tell...
tl;dr? Spoiler:
tl;dr? Spoiler:
As noted in today commentary: 1.11 bln euros of options at $1.1650 expire today. Today's high, so far is a little above $1.1655. Now below $1.1650. Still, US CPI sufficiently benign to keep expectations for a rate cut next month intact.
marctomarket.com/2025/08/rba-...
marctomarket.com/2025/08/rba-...
August 12, 2025 at 12:53 PM
As noted in today commentary: 1.11 bln euros of options at $1.1650 expire today. Today's high, so far is a little above $1.1655. Now below $1.1650. Still, US CPI sufficiently benign to keep expectations for a rate cut next month intact.
marctomarket.com/2025/08/rba-...
marctomarket.com/2025/08/rba-...
August 12, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Seems rich that while US tariffs disrupt global trade, many call on China to allow the yuan to appreciate for the good of the world economy. The $JPY and $euro are more undervalued. The real problem is the overvalued dollar. My take: marctomarket.com/2025/08/us-t...
Spoiler:
Spoiler:
August 8, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Seems rich that while US tariffs disrupt global trade, many call on China to allow the yuan to appreciate for the good of the world economy. The $JPY and $euro are more undervalued. The real problem is the overvalued dollar. My take: marctomarket.com/2025/08/us-t...
Spoiler:
Spoiler:
The PBOC has introduced more flexibility into the setting of the $USD fix, but three-month CNY vol has fallen, and yesterday reached a new 1-yr low. Might i encourage officials to pursue more flexibility?
marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-...
Spoiler:
marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-...
Spoiler:
July 31, 2025 at 11:14 AM
The PBOC has introduced more flexibility into the setting of the $USD fix, but three-month CNY vol has fallen, and yesterday reached a new 1-yr low. Might i encourage officials to pursue more flexibility?
marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-...
Spoiler:
marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-...
Spoiler:
$USD has come back better bid today. The mkt may see a BOJ hike later this year, but it has offered the $JPY little comfort, with rising US rates. UK's poor news continued today with a disappointing bounce in retail sales, weighing on $GBP.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/07/the-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/07/the-...
July 25, 2025 at 10:08 AM
$USD has come back better bid today. The mkt may see a BOJ hike later this year, but it has offered the $JPY little comfort, with rising US rates. UK's poor news continued today with a disappointing bounce in retail sales, weighing on $GBP.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/07/the-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/07/the-...
Heavy $USD trumps larger-than-expected UK contraction in April. $GBP up ~0.25%. Dollar-bloc currencies are under-performing. US to sell 30-year bonds today to finish week's coupon sales. 6-month rare earths from China suggest challenges to return.
marctomarket.com/2025/06/cant...
marctomarket.com/2025/06/cant...
June 12, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Heavy $USD trumps larger-than-expected UK contraction in April. $GBP up ~0.25%. Dollar-bloc currencies are under-performing. US to sell 30-year bonds today to finish week's coupon sales. 6-month rare earths from China suggest challenges to return.
marctomarket.com/2025/06/cant...
marctomarket.com/2025/06/cant...
ECB as expected cut 25 bp. $Eur wobbled but little changed net-net. New forecasts:
June 5, 2025 at 12:20 PM
ECB as expected cut 25 bp. $Eur wobbled but little changed net-net. New forecasts:
There are many narratives around the rise of US note and bond yields. Some talk about a capital strike against the US. Still, the first cut should be to look at change in the projection of the overnight rate.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/week...
marctomarket.com/2025/05/week...
May 24, 2025 at 5:15 PM
There are many narratives around the rise of US note and bond yields. Some talk about a capital strike against the US. Still, the first cut should be to look at change in the projection of the overnight rate.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/week...
marctomarket.com/2025/05/week...
Two things: 1. POTUS say US to impose tariffs in 2-3 weeks unilaterally as lacks capacity to negotiate with the world. 2. US has signaled intent to cut Supplemental Leverage Ratio, which makes Tsy holdings more attractive blunting de-risking by Europe.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/us-t...
marctomarket.com/2025/05/us-t...
May 16, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Two things: 1. POTUS say US to impose tariffs in 2-3 weeks unilaterally as lacks capacity to negotiate with the world. 2. US has signaled intent to cut Supplemental Leverage Ratio, which makes Tsy holdings more attractive blunting de-risking by Europe.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/us-t...
marctomarket.com/2025/05/us-t...
Today:
1. PBOC dollar fix little changed from Apr 30. Helps stabilize regional currency.
2. US tariff on chips is unlikely to be announced tomorrow before the public commentary ends.
3. Merz loses first vote in Bundestag. Embarrassing but meaningless.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/pboc...
1. PBOC dollar fix little changed from Apr 30. Helps stabilize regional currency.
2. US tariff on chips is unlikely to be announced tomorrow before the public commentary ends.
3. Merz loses first vote in Bundestag. Embarrassing but meaningless.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/pboc...
May 6, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Today:
1. PBOC dollar fix little changed from Apr 30. Helps stabilize regional currency.
2. US tariff on chips is unlikely to be announced tomorrow before the public commentary ends.
3. Merz loses first vote in Bundestag. Embarrassing but meaningless.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/pboc...
1. PBOC dollar fix little changed from Apr 30. Helps stabilize regional currency.
2. US tariff on chips is unlikely to be announced tomorrow before the public commentary ends.
3. Merz loses first vote in Bundestag. Embarrassing but meaningless.
marctomarket.com/2025/05/pboc...
Beijing waited for our daily comment to be posted to announce a 34% tariff on all US goods (April 10), suspending licenses for 6 US products, and will impose exports controls on some rare earths.
marctomarket.com/2025/04/frid...
marctomarket.com/2025/04/frid...
April 4, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Beijing waited for our daily comment to be posted to announce a 34% tariff on all US goods (April 10), suspending licenses for 6 US products, and will impose exports controls on some rare earths.
marctomarket.com/2025/04/frid...
marctomarket.com/2025/04/frid...