Marc Chandler
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Political economist
Focus global capital markets
Focus global capital markets
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Standpat Fed, Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, while Cat-and-Mouse with Officials on Yen Continues
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 24, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Widespread talk Fed checked FX rates, which is not unusual, but some are saying Fed explicitly said it was doing so on behalf of the US Treasury. Now that is unusual and gives the appearance of verbal intervention by the Fed. FWIW
January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Widespread talk Fed checked FX rates, which is not unusual, but some are saying Fed explicitly said it was doing so on behalf of the US Treasury. Now that is unusual and gives the appearance of verbal intervention by the Fed. FWIW
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
The U.S. Didn’t Lose to Globalization. It Invented a Better Version of It.
The U.S. globalized by exporting firms, not goods, Marc Chandler and Adam Farhat write in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ Maintains Steady Policy, Heightened Intervention Watch, while PBOC sets Dollar Fix Below CNY7.0
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:05 PM
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ Maintains Steady Policy, Heightened Intervention Watch, while PBOC sets Dollar Fix Below CNY7.0
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:05 PM
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
Collective sigh of relief. POTUS backed away from the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs for Feb 1 on several European countries. Also, JGBs continue their fragile recovery from Tues rout.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
A Collective Sigh of Relief
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 22, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Collective sigh of relief. POTUS backed away from the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs for Feb 1 on several European countries. Also, JGBs continue their fragile recovery from Tues rout.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
With POTUS backing off of both the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs on several European countries objected to his overtures, I suspect #$USD has scope to rise in the next couple of sessions.
January 21, 2026 at 8:14 PM
With POTUS backing off of both the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs on several European countries objected to his overtures, I suspect #$USD has scope to rise in the next couple of sessions.
Appeasement is a dangerous thing. POTUS says all he is asking for is Greenland. Really? Why then does he show map with a US flag covering Canada, too? US and NATO free to build more in Greenland, and is so important, why has the US reduced its presence there?
January 21, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Appeasement is a dangerous thing. POTUS says all he is asking for is Greenland. Really? Why then does he show map with a US flag covering Canada, too? US and NATO free to build more in Greenland, and is so important, why has the US reduced its presence there?
The idea that the yen's weakness yesterday while JGB yields spiked is some how a new development rests too much on theory and not enough on what has actually happened. In Q1 25 the 100-day rolling correlation between changes in the the dollar vs JPY and 10-year was...(1/2)
January 21, 2026 at 1:13 PM
The idea that the yen's weakness yesterday while JGB yields spiked is some how a new development rests too much on theory and not enough on what has actually happened. In Q1 25 the 100-day rolling correlation between changes in the the dollar vs JPY and 10-year was...(1/2)
Japanese verbal intervention helped steady JGBs while not spurring a sell-off of the yen. Could be a big day for the SCOTUS. Meanwhile note the 1 bln euro of options struck at $1.1690. The calm in the capital markets seems fragile.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/eeri...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/eeri...
Eerie and Nervous Calm in Capital Markets
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 21, 2026 at 12:07 PM
Japanese verbal intervention helped steady JGBs while not spurring a sell-off of the yen. Could be a big day for the SCOTUS. Meanwhile note the 1 bln euro of options struck at $1.1690. The calm in the capital markets seems fragile.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/eeri...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/eeri...
The pot is stirred. More turmoil in Davos. Market anxiety elevated. Bond, equities and the dollar have been sold hard. Gold, silver, and Swiss franc havens. US 10yr has approached 4.30%, highest since last September.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
Drama Unfolds: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar have Been Sold
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 20, 2026 at 11:59 AM
The pot is stirred. More turmoil in Davos. Market anxiety elevated. Bond, equities and the dollar have been sold hard. Gold, silver, and Swiss franc havens. US 10yr has approached 4.30%, highest since last September.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
#$USD is mostly softer amid heightened tensions over Greenland, where the US has reduced it military presence in recent years. As rumored, Japan PM called for a snap election next month. China's Q4 GDP mixed but PBOC fixed CNY higher. US on holiday.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
Greenback Slips Amid Heightened Tensions over Greenland
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:03 PM
#$USD is mostly softer amid heightened tensions over Greenland, where the US has reduced it military presence in recent years. As rumored, Japan PM called for a snap election next month. China's Q4 GDP mixed but PBOC fixed CNY higher. US on holiday.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
#$USD opening firmer after weekend developments. Euro trading thru $1.1585 where 2.1 bln euro in options expire tomorrow 10 am ET. It is off ~1/4 cent, while #$GBP was off almost 1/2 cent before steadying. Weak close before the weekend, but... Weekly: marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
January 18, 2026 at 6:35 PM
#$USD opening firmer after weekend developments. Euro trading thru $1.1585 where 2.1 bln euro in options expire tomorrow 10 am ET. It is off ~1/4 cent, while #$GBP was off almost 1/2 cent before steadying. Weak close before the weekend, but... Weekly: marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Dollar's Upside Correction Since around Christmas may be in the Final Phase
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 17, 2026 at 12:22 PM
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Some suspect BOJ could intervene what US is on holiday. I am skeptical. One reason is that if they intervene and BOJ at the end of the week does not raise rates and the prime minister calls for a snap election--the intervention could go for naught.
January 16, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Some suspect BOJ could intervene what US is on holiday. I am skeptical. One reason is that if they intervene and BOJ at the end of the week does not raise rates and the prime minister calls for a snap election--the intervention could go for naught.
Futures market now has about 45 bp of easing discounted for the Fed this year. It implies a year end effective rate of about 3.18%, the highest since the end of last July.
January 16, 2026 at 3:47 PM
Futures market now has about 45 bp of easing discounted for the Fed this year. It implies a year end effective rate of about 3.18%, the highest since the end of last July.
USD firms after POTUS seemed to rule out Hassett at Fed's helm, saying he likes him where he is at. Yet, could Miran get the nod? Stocks have turned lower and the 4.20% capped the 10yr Treasury yield.
January 16, 2026 at 3:38 PM
USD firms after POTUS seemed to rule out Hassett at Fed's helm, saying he likes him where he is at. Yet, could Miran get the nod? Stocks have turned lower and the 4.20% capped the 10yr Treasury yield.
The USD is trading softer against the G10 currencies but the broad consolidation seen in recent days continues. Yen shorts covered amid heightened fear of intervention perhaps when US markets are closed Monday. Verbal intervention continued.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
US Dollar Finishing Week Softly but Within Consolidative Ranges
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 16, 2026 at 12:02 PM
The USD is trading softer against the G10 currencies but the broad consolidation seen in recent days continues. Yen shorts covered amid heightened fear of intervention perhaps when US markets are closed Monday. Verbal intervention continued.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
FX option expirations tomorrow:
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
January 15, 2026 at 8:35 PM
FX option expirations tomorrow:
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
MXN and CNH make new highs, while the greenback consolidate against G10 currencies. JPY stabilized with threats of intervention and BOJ to take yen weakness inflation implications into account. Operation Arctic Endurance sees NATO troops in Greenland.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
The Dollar is Firm but Consolidating
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:59 AM
MXN and CNH make new highs, while the greenback consolidate against G10 currencies. JPY stabilized with threats of intervention and BOJ to take yen weakness inflation implications into account. Operation Arctic Endurance sees NATO troops in Greenland.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
Some large FX options expire tomorrow:
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
January 14, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Some large FX options expire tomorrow:
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
USD consolidation broadly continues. Japanese officials have taken a couple of steps up the intervention escalation ladder, injecting a note of caution. PRC reports a big trade surplus. Will it SCOTUS rule on US tariffs?
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
The Dollar Consolidates while Japan Steps Up its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 14, 2026 at 12:02 PM
USD consolidation broadly continues. Japanese officials have taken a couple of steps up the intervention escalation ladder, injecting a note of caution. PRC reports a big trade surplus. Will it SCOTUS rule on US tariffs?
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
JPY Slumps
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 13, 2026 at 11:49 AM
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
JPY Slumps
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 13, 2026 at 11:49 AM
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
New Push Against the Federal Reserve Sends the Dollar, and US Bonds and Stocks Lower, and Helps Lift Gold and Silver to Record Highs
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:03 PM
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...