Marc Chandler
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Political economist
Focus global capital markets
Focus global capital markets
Reposted by Marc Chandler
POTUS tells CNBC next Fed chair, and he is leaning toward Warsh/Hassett and more the former, should consult with him on rates. Seems to make it more likely that Powell stays as on Governor when term as chair ends in May.
December 12, 2025 at 9:01 PM
POTUS tells CNBC next Fed chair, and he is leaning toward Warsh/Hassett and more the former, should consult with him on rates. Seems to make it more likely that Powell stays as on Governor when term as chair ends in May.
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Week Ahead: US jobs and CPI but market is still debating if T-bill purchases are QE. Independence of Fed challenged by POTUS desire to be consulted on rates. BOJ hike and BOE cut coming. USD bulls on the defensive. See marctomarket.com/2025/12/next...
Next Week: Six G-10 Central Banks Meet, But Only Two Move--BOE Cuts and BOJ Hikes
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Week Ahead: US jobs and CPI but market is still debating if T-bill purchases are QE. Independence of Fed challenged by POTUS desire to be consulted on rates. BOJ hike and BOE cut coming. USD bulls on the defensive. See marctomarket.com/2025/12/next...
Week Ahead: US jobs and CPI but market is still debating if T-bill purchases are QE. Independence of Fed challenged by POTUS desire to be consulted on rates. BOJ hike and BOE cut coming. USD bulls on the defensive. See marctomarket.com/2025/12/next...
Next Week: Six G-10 Central Banks Meet, But Only Two Move--BOE Cuts and BOJ Hikes
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Week Ahead: US jobs and CPI but market is still debating if T-bill purchases are QE. Independence of Fed challenged by POTUS desire to be consulted on rates. BOJ hike and BOE cut coming. USD bulls on the defensive. See marctomarket.com/2025/12/next...
POTUS tells CNBC next Fed chair, and he is leaning toward Warsh/Hassett and more the former, should consult with him on rates. Seems to make it more likely that Powell stays as on Governor when term as chair ends in May.
December 12, 2025 at 9:01 PM
POTUS tells CNBC next Fed chair, and he is leaning toward Warsh/Hassett and more the former, should consult with him on rates. Seems to make it more likely that Powell stays as on Governor when term as chair ends in May.
USD remains vulnerable after yesterday's sell-off in response to the FOMC. The surprise was the $40 bln of T-bill this month and will continue few months at least. Poor jobs data capped the Aussie. New low for USD vs CNH/CNY
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Dollar Remains on the Defensive after the FOMC
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
December 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
USD remains vulnerable after yesterday's sell-off in response to the FOMC. The surprise was the $40 bln of T-bill this month and will continue few months at least. Poor jobs data capped the Aussie. New low for USD vs CNH/CNY
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
The USD is consolidating in narrow ranges ahead of the FOMC meeting. Sept dots showed median view of 1 cut next year. Mkt sees at two and knows Powell's successor will be more dovish. Canada CB meets too. Mkt is pricing in 1st hike in Sept-Oct 26.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
Fed Day with 10-year Yield at a Three-Month High
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 10, 2025 at 11:11 AM
The USD is consolidating in narrow ranges ahead of the FOMC meeting. Sept dots showed median view of 1 cut next year. Mkt sees at two and knows Powell's successor will be more dovish. Canada CB meets too. Mkt is pricing in 1st hike in Sept-Oct 26.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
The USD is consolidating in narrow ranges ahead of the FOMC meeting. Sept dots showed median view of 1 cut next year. Mkt sees at two and knows Powell's successor will be more dovish. Canada CB meets too. Mkt is pricing in 1st hike in Sept-Oct 26.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
Fed Day with 10-year Yield at a Three-Month High
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 10, 2025 at 11:11 AM
The USD is consolidating in narrow ranges ahead of the FOMC meeting. Sept dots showed median view of 1 cut next year. Mkt sees at two and knows Powell's successor will be more dovish. Canada CB meets too. Mkt is pricing in 1st hike in Sept-Oct 26.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/fed-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
$USD is mostly softer against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is at a 7-day low. RBA delivers a hawkish hold, but Aussie capped at recent highs ~$0.6550. US threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water dispute.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
Hawkish Hold by the RBA; Will the Fed Deliver a Hawkish Cut Tomorrow?
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 9, 2025 at 11:14 AM
$USD is mostly softer against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is at a 7-day low. RBA delivers a hawkish hold, but Aussie capped at recent highs ~$0.6550. US threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water dispute.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
$USD is mostly softer against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is at a 7-day low. RBA delivers a hawkish hold, but Aussie capped at recent highs ~$0.6550. US threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water dispute.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
Hawkish Hold by the RBA; Will the Fed Deliver a Hawkish Cut Tomorrow?
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 9, 2025 at 11:14 AM
$USD is mostly softer against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is at a 7-day low. RBA delivers a hawkish hold, but Aussie capped at recent highs ~$0.6550. US threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water dispute.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/hawk...
USD is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover. The G10 central bank meetings begin tomorrow with the RBA, Bank of Canada and Fed on Wed, and SNB on Thurs. Only Fed to cut. MXN and CNY are a little softer after new highs for the year last week.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Central Bank Meetings
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 8, 2025 at 11:10 AM
USD is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover. The G10 central bank meetings begin tomorrow with the RBA, Bank of Canada and Fed on Wed, and SNB on Thurs. Only Fed to cut. MXN and CNY are a little softer after new highs for the year last week.
marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Week Ahead--Four G10 central banks meet. Market suspects RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada are done cutting barring a new shock. Fed to cut and more next year. Will RBA and/or Canada hike next year?
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/week...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/week...
Week Ahead: Fed to Cut but RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada Set to Hold, and Market Thinks They are Done
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
December 6, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Week Ahead--Four G10 central banks meet. Market suspects RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada are done cutting barring a new shock. Fed to cut and more next year. Will RBA and/or Canada hike next year?
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/week...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/week...
$USD consolidating. Surge in German factory orders has had little impact on the $eur. Japanese household spending slumps, but little impact on $JPY. RBI cut as expected. Canadian jobs and US Sept PCE deflator on tap.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/germ...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/germ...
German Factory Orders Surprise to the Upside, Japan Household Spending Surprise to the Downside, while the Greenback Consolidates
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
December 5, 2025 at 11:11 AM
$USD consolidating. Surge in German factory orders has had little impact on the $eur. Japanese household spending slumps, but little impact on $JPY. RBI cut as expected. Canadian jobs and US Sept PCE deflator on tap.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/germ...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/germ...
$USD downside momentum has stalled today, though increased speculation of a BOJ rate hike extends the $JPY gains with USD returning to Monday's lows. Strong Australian household spending underpins A$. RBI intervenes after INR sets record low.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Dollar's Downside Momentum Stalls
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 4, 2025 at 11:09 AM
$USD downside momentum has stalled today, though increased speculation of a BOJ rate hike extends the $JPY gains with USD returning to Monday's lows. Strong Australian household spending underpins A$. RBI intervenes after INR sets record low.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
News wires report Chinese state-owned banks were bidding for USD earlier today. With the PBOC encouraging a weaker greenback through the setting its references rate at new lows, can it be that the Chinese banks have commercial activity to conduct and it is not intervention?
December 3, 2025 at 3:28 PM
News wires report Chinese state-owned banks were bidding for USD earlier today. With the PBOC encouraging a weaker greenback through the setting its references rate at new lows, can it be that the Chinese banks have commercial activity to conduct and it is not intervention?
USD is heavy. Against several G10 currencies, it has been sold through last month's lows. Stronger EMU final PMI is part of story, but even in places that disappointed, like Australia's Q3 GDP or Swiss CPI, the currencies have rallied.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/afte...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/afte...
After Pausing Yesterday, the Greenback's Slide is Extended Today
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
December 3, 2025 at 11:06 AM
USD is heavy. Against several G10 currencies, it has been sold through last month's lows. Stronger EMU final PMI is part of story, but even in places that disappointed, like Australia's Q3 GDP or Swiss CPI, the currencies have rallied.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/afte...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/afte...
Euro bouncing in early North American turnover. Still watch for 925 mln euro option expiring at $1.1625 today. USD flirting with JPY156, where options for $835 mln expire today, and $950 mln of options at JPY156.50 also expire today.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
December 2, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Euro bouncing in early North American turnover. Still watch for 925 mln euro option expiring at $1.1625 today. USD flirting with JPY156, where options for $835 mln expire today, and $950 mln of options at JPY156.50 also expire today.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
USD is consolidating but with US rates remaining firm, I suspect there is still scope for corrective upticks after its recent pullback. News stream is quiet. JPY is weakest despite ~80% chance of BOJ hike this month and solid 10-year auction.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
Is the Dollar's Consolidation a Prelude to an Upside Correction?
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
December 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
USD is consolidating but with US rates remaining firm, I suspect there is still scope for corrective upticks after its recent pullback. News stream is quiet. JPY is weakest despite ~80% chance of BOJ hike this month and solid 10-year auction.
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
See marctomarket.com/2025/12/is-d...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
New monthly drops. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
December 2025 Monthly
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
November 29, 2025 at 12:08 PM
New monthly drops. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
JPY leads today's move against the USD. BOJ Gov Ueda strongest comments about rate hike this month and odds of Fed cut continue to run high. Funding currency shift from JPY to USD and CHF. Stocks and bonds weaker. Dollar bloc underperforms.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
Dollar Losses Extended, while Stocks and Bonds Retreat
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:11 AM
JPY leads today's move against the USD. BOJ Gov Ueda strongest comments about rate hike this month and odds of Fed cut continue to run high. Funding currency shift from JPY to USD and CHF. Stocks and bonds weaker. Dollar bloc underperforms.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/12/doll...
New monthly drops. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
December 2025 Monthly
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
November 29, 2025 at 12:08 PM
New monthly drops. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/dece...
$USD outlook within large geopolitical framing and policy context.
Of course CNY is under-valued. Aside from the Swiss franc, what currency is not? Still, while finding PRC policies objectionable, I think many critics have not recognized PBOC is allowing the yuan to appreciate--even if not as fast as critics want and (1/3)
November 28, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Of course CNY is under-valued. Aside from the Swiss franc, what currency is not? Still, while finding PRC policies objectionable, I think many critics have not recognized PBOC is allowing the yuan to appreciate--even if not as fast as critics want and (1/3)
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Notable fx option expirations today:
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
November 28, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Notable fx option expirations today:
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
Notable fx option expirations today:
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
November 28, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Notable fx option expirations today:
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
$1.1570 for ~780 mln euros
JPY156.50 for ~$516 mln
$1.3200 for ~GBP760 mln
www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-...
USD is trading with a firmer bias today. The pendulum of expectations may have swung as far in favor of a cut next month pending more data. But the yen is drawing little support from shift toward BOJ hike.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-... pic.x.com/8i7oxzcRwY
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-... pic.x.com/8i7oxzcRwY
USD Bounces into the End of the Week
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
November 28, 2025 at 11:16 AM
USD is trading with a firmer bias today. The pendulum of expectations may have swung as far in favor of a cut next month pending more data. But the yen is drawing little support from shift toward BOJ hike.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-... pic.x.com/8i7oxzcRwY
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/usd-... pic.x.com/8i7oxzcRwY
Between now and the end of 2026, the Fed funds futures are implying 91 bp of cuts. That is 3 cuts fully and about 2/3 chance of a 4th. If Fed wants to push back against mkt expectations--time is running out. Blackout period begins this week. Be attentive to planted stories. Wouldn't be 1st time.
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Between now and the end of 2026, the Fed funds futures are implying 91 bp of cuts. That is 3 cuts fully and about 2/3 chance of a 4th. If Fed wants to push back against mkt expectations--time is running out. Blackout period begins this week. Be attentive to planted stories. Wouldn't be 1st time.