Manuel Müller
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
Senior Research Fellow @fiia.fi | Blogger @foederalist.eu | EU integration & supranational democracy | Views my own, of course
Das BAMF ist gerade in Hongkong in den Medien.
Germany deported a Uyghur woman back to China rather than to Turkey after a bureaucratic mix-up, government sources said Monday, with critics slamming a "huge blunder" that endangered her life. In full: buff.ly/YQPwRed
Germany deported Uyghur woman to China in bureaucratic bungle
Germany deported a Uyghur woman back to China rather than to Turkey after a bureaucratic mix-up, government sources said Monday, with critics slamming a "huge blunder" that endangered her life.
buff.ly
November 11, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Das BAMF ist gerade in Hongkong in den Medien.
Reposted by Manuel Müller
Worth translating: interview w/ @valentimvicente.bsky.social on a very plausible explanation for the rise of the radical right in Europe:
Norms that made voting far-right parties socially undesirable have eroded - and the availability of far-right parties met a certain "demand" that already existed
Norms that made voting far-right parties socially undesirable have eroded - and the availability of far-right parties met a certain "demand" that already existed
"Es herrscht die falsche Annahme, dass viele Wähler, die früher Mitte-rechts-Parteien gewählt haben, im Herzen noch immer Mitte-rechts sind. Meine Arbeit legt aber nahe, dass diese Menschen schon vorher extrem rechts gedacht haben"
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
Vicente Valentim: "Angela Merkel lag richtig"
Haben Menschen früher rechter gedacht, als sie gewählt haben? Der Forscher Vicente Valentim sagt, dass wir eine Ursache für den Erfolg extrem rechter Parteien übersehen.
www.zeit.de
November 6, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Worth translating: interview w/ @valentimvicente.bsky.social on a very plausible explanation for the rise of the radical right in Europe:
Norms that made voting far-right parties socially undesirable have eroded - and the availability of far-right parties met a certain "demand" that already existed
Norms that made voting far-right parties socially undesirable have eroded - and the availability of far-right parties met a certain "demand" that already existed
My @fiia.fi colleague and Middle East expert Timo R. Stewart (@timostewart.bsky.social) has just been awarded the "Scientist of the Year" award of the Finnish Union of Research Professionals.
Congrats, Timo, well deserved!
Congrats, Timo, well deserved!
Lämpimät onnittelut, Vuoden tieteentekijä Timo R. Stewart! 💐@timostewart.bsky.social
#VuodenTieteentekijä
tieteentekijat.fi/timo-r-stewa...
#VuodenTieteentekijä
tieteentekijat.fi/timo-r-stewa...
Timo R. Stewart on Vuoden tieteentekijä
Vuoden tieteentekijä -palkinto on myönnetty tutkija ja tietokirjailija Timo R. Stewartille Tieteentekijäpäivässä Helsingissä.
tieteentekijat.fi
November 7, 2025 at 9:43 PM
My @fiia.fi colleague and Middle East expert Timo R. Stewart (@timostewart.bsky.social) has just been awarded the "Scientist of the Year" award of the Finnish Union of Research Professionals.
Congrats, Timo, well deserved!
Congrats, Timo, well deserved!
"Few voters who prioritize bigotry want the diet version."
I think this wording epitomises the issue better than the similar, but more vague "voters prefer the original to the copy". Because it *is* bigotry we're talking about - and the far right will always beat democratic parties in that game.
I think this wording epitomises the issue better than the similar, but more vague "voters prefer the original to the copy". Because it *is* bigotry we're talking about - and the far right will always beat democratic parties in that game.
Democrats Sweep 2025 Elections, 2024 Narratives Crumble
"Be more anti-immigrant, be more anti-trans, be more positive towards anti-democracy bigots like Charlie Kirk. Not as much as Republicans, but move in that direction, since that’s supposedly where the American people are.
Nope."
My latest:
"Be more anti-immigrant, be more anti-trans, be more positive towards anti-democracy bigots like Charlie Kirk. Not as much as Republicans, but move in that direction, since that’s supposedly where the American people are.
Nope."
My latest:
Democrats Sweep 2025 Elections, 2024 Narratives Crumble
In state and local elections, American voters repudiated Donald Trump's presidency, and disproved claims of a lasting right-wing cultural shift
www.arcdigital.media
November 6, 2025 at 5:04 AM
"Few voters who prioritize bigotry want the diet version."
I think this wording epitomises the issue better than the similar, but more vague "voters prefer the original to the copy". Because it *is* bigotry we're talking about - and the far right will always beat democratic parties in that game.
I think this wording epitomises the issue better than the similar, but more vague "voters prefer the original to the copy". Because it *is* bigotry we're talking about - and the far right will always beat democratic parties in that game.
We must really disabuse ourselves of the idea that the Dutch election has been some sort of a turning point back towards pro-European democratic centrism.
Yes, it's good that the next government is likely to be more centrist than the last one. But the far-right dangers have certainly not gone away.
Yes, it's good that the next government is likely to be more centrist than the last one. But the far-right dangers have certainly not gone away.
On the “defeat” of the far right in the Netherlands 🇳🇱
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
November 3, 2025 at 10:14 AM
We must really disabuse ourselves of the idea that the Dutch election has been some sort of a turning point back towards pro-European democratic centrism.
Yes, it's good that the next government is likely to be more centrist than the last one. But the far-right dangers have certainly not gone away.
Yes, it's good that the next government is likely to be more centrist than the last one. But the far-right dangers have certainly not gone away.
Reposted by Manuel Müller
On the “defeat” of the far right in the Netherlands 🇳🇱
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
October 30, 2025 at 1:24 PM
On the “defeat” of the far right in the Netherlands 🇳🇱
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer:
2021: 28
2023: 41
2025: 42 👈
And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.
This is important.
I think there is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood that the US won't have any elections in the future at all, and to underestimate the likelihood that these elections won't be free and fair.
I think there is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood that the US won't have any elections in the future at all, and to underestimate the likelihood that these elections won't be free and fair.
Even though I think we’ll vote, I’m not saying I think our elections will be 100% free and fair.
There will surely be a military presence on Election Day in many places. There could be weeks of new actions meant to disrupt voting in the weeks before. There will be lawsuits. And gerrymandering.
There will surely be a military presence on Election Day in many places. There could be weeks of new actions meant to disrupt voting in the weeks before. There will be lawsuits. And gerrymandering.
November 2, 2025 at 7:07 AM
This is important.
I think there is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood that the US won't have any elections in the future at all, and to underestimate the likelihood that these elections won't be free and fair.
I think there is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood that the US won't have any elections in the future at all, and to underestimate the likelihood that these elections won't be free and fair.
There are those days when I open Bluesky and I immediately see that something dramatic must have happened on the other side of the Atlantic, but I have absolutely no idea what it is.
November 1, 2025 at 4:12 AM
There are those days when I open Bluesky and I immediately see that something dramatic must have happened on the other side of the Atlantic, but I have absolutely no idea what it is.
October 31, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Reposted by Manuel Müller
No, FT, the story of the Dutch elections is not “Netherlands swings to centre”, but the fragmentation of political landscape, incl among the far-right. So Wilders’ PVV no longer clearly the largest, but combined seat tally of the far-right remains stable (+1).
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Netherlands swings to centre after far-right setback
Freedom party faces defeat after collapse of Geert Wilders-supported coalition government
giftarticle.ft.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:34 AM
No, FT, the story of the Dutch elections is not “Netherlands swings to centre”, but the fragmentation of political landscape, incl among the far-right. So Wilders’ PVV no longer clearly the largest, but combined seat tally of the far-right remains stable (+1).
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Impressive visualisation!
I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally.
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Impressive visualisation!
Vom 21. Jahrhundert ist das erste Viertel fast vorbei, und in Deutschland kann man es mit der Verwendung des generischen Femininums immer noch in die Tagesschau schaffen.
Hessen: Nur weibliche Formen: Gender-Zoff wegen Feuerwehr-Satzung in Friedrichsdorf
Streit um geschlechtergerechte Sprache: In Friedrichsdorf sorgt eine Feuerwehr-Satzung, die nur noch weibliche Amtsbezeichnungen kennt, für reichlich Zündstoff zwischen Bürgermeister und CDU-Fraktion.
www.tagesschau.de
October 27, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Vom 21. Jahrhundert ist das erste Viertel fast vorbei, und in Deutschland kann man es mit der Verwendung des generischen Femininums immer noch in die Tagesschau schaffen.
Finnish migration policy is having a bit of a FAFO moment.
Supply of foreign care workers dries up
The number of foreigners entering Finland's care sector has collapsed compared with previous years.
yle.fi
October 26, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Finnish migration policy is having a bit of a FAFO moment.
Reposted by Manuel Müller
Beim Versuch, nach rechts abgewanderte Wähler zurückzugewinnen, riskiert der Kanzler durch seine Rhetorik die Entfremdung von Millionen Deutschen mit Migrationsgeschichte- auch meine. Mein Gastbeitrag als Angesprochener für @spiegel.de
www.spiegel.de/politik/ciha...
www.spiegel.de/politik/ciha...
Meinung: Cihan Celik zu Stadtbild-Debatte: Was Merz in der migrantischen Community auslöst
Mit seinen Worten entfremdet Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz Millionen Deutsche mit Migrationsgeschichte von der deutschen Gesellschaft. Für Menschen wie mich ist das eine bestürzende und schmerzvolle Er...
www.spiegel.de
October 22, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Beim Versuch, nach rechts abgewanderte Wähler zurückzugewinnen, riskiert der Kanzler durch seine Rhetorik die Entfremdung von Millionen Deutschen mit Migrationsgeschichte- auch meine. Mein Gastbeitrag als Angesprochener für @spiegel.de
www.spiegel.de/politik/ciha...
www.spiegel.de/politik/ciha...
Reposted by Manuel Müller
The EU has begun talks on its long-term budget at a geopolitically critical moment.
In the latest FIIA Briefing Paper, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu examines key disputes shaping the complex and likely slow negotiations.
Read here ⤵️
fiia.fi/en/publication/the-european-unions-next-long-term-budget
In the latest FIIA Briefing Paper, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu examines key disputes shaping the complex and likely slow negotiations.
Read here ⤵️
fiia.fi/en/publication/the-european-unions-next-long-term-budget
October 21, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The EU has begun talks on its long-term budget at a geopolitically critical moment.
In the latest FIIA Briefing Paper, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu examines key disputes shaping the complex and likely slow negotiations.
Read here ⤵️
fiia.fi/en/publication/the-european-unions-next-long-term-budget
In the latest FIIA Briefing Paper, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu examines key disputes shaping the complex and likely slow negotiations.
Read here ⤵️
fiia.fi/en/publication/the-european-unions-next-long-term-budget
Reposted by Manuel Müller
Das #EUbudget macht nur einen Bruchteil der gesamten Staatsausgaben in Europa aus, doch es wird weit mehr darüber gestritten als über die meisten nationalen Haushalte.
Ein neues FIIA Briefing Paper von MANUEL MÜLLER beleuchtet die wichtigsten Konfliktthemen in den anstehenden #MFF- Verhandlungen.
Ein neues FIIA Briefing Paper von MANUEL MÜLLER beleuchtet die wichtigsten Konfliktthemen in den anstehenden #MFF- Verhandlungen.
FIIA Briefing Paper: Der neue langfristige EU-Haushalt – schwierige Verhandlungen voraus
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
October 21, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Reposted by Manuel Müller
The #EUbudget accounts for only a fraction of total government spending in Europe, yet it is far more controversial than most national budgets.
A new FIIA Briefing Paper by MANUEL MÜLLER analyses the key issues at stake in the upcoming #MFF negotiations.
A new FIIA Briefing Paper by MANUEL MÜLLER analyses the key issues at stake in the upcoming #MFF negotiations.
FIIA Briefing Paper: The European Union’s next long-term budget – difficult negotiations ahead
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
October 21, 2025 at 12:11 PM
My latest @fiia.fi Briefing Paper is out!
It's about the timeline and procedure for the upcoming #MultiannualFinancialFramework negotiations, the four main areas of disagreement, and the impossibility of achieving a coherent and ambitious #EUbudget with more than two dozen veto players.
It's about the timeline and procedure for the upcoming #MultiannualFinancialFramework negotiations, the four main areas of disagreement, and the impossibility of achieving a coherent and ambitious #EUbudget with more than two dozen veto players.
The European Union’s next long-term budget | FIIA
As the EU is under growing pressure to strengthen its geopolitical role, the recently begun negotiations on its long-term budget for 2028–2034 acquire key political relevance.
fiia.fi
October 21, 2025 at 12:02 PM
My latest @fiia.fi Briefing Paper is out!
It's about the timeline and procedure for the upcoming #MultiannualFinancialFramework negotiations, the four main areas of disagreement, and the impossibility of achieving a coherent and ambitious #EUbudget with more than two dozen veto players.
It's about the timeline and procedure for the upcoming #MultiannualFinancialFramework negotiations, the four main areas of disagreement, and the impossibility of achieving a coherent and ambitious #EUbudget with more than two dozen veto players.
Hallo @tagesspiegel.de (mit dpa und Reuters),
sollte die Schlagzeile hier nicht eher lauten: "Trump brabbelt irgendetwas über die Ukraine daher"?
Der Aussagewert dieser Sätze ist doch nahezu Null.
sollte die Schlagzeile hier nicht eher lauten: "Trump brabbelt irgendetwas über die Ukraine daher"?
Der Aussagewert dieser Sätze ist doch nahezu Null.
October 21, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Hallo @tagesspiegel.de (mit dpa und Reuters),
sollte die Schlagzeile hier nicht eher lauten: "Trump brabbelt irgendetwas über die Ukraine daher"?
Der Aussagewert dieser Sätze ist doch nahezu Null.
sollte die Schlagzeile hier nicht eher lauten: "Trump brabbelt irgendetwas über die Ukraine daher"?
Der Aussagewert dieser Sätze ist doch nahezu Null.
This approach might make sense in order to speed up enlargement – but it is not sustainable in the large run. The EU must be a community of equals, not of first- and second-class member states.
So if this happens, we'd need a fix date by which all other MS will relinquish their veto rights, too.
So if this happens, we'd need a fix date by which all other MS will relinquish their veto rights, too.
A new proposal would allow countries to join the EU without full voting rights.
It's the latest attempt by pro-EU-enlargement governments to breathe life into an expansion process that's currently blocked by Budapest and a few other capitals.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/new-...
It's the latest attempt by pro-EU-enlargement governments to breathe life into an expansion process that's currently blocked by Budapest and a few other capitals.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/new-...
October 20, 2025 at 11:47 AM
This approach might make sense in order to speed up enlargement – but it is not sustainable in the large run. The EU must be a community of equals, not of first- and second-class member states.
So if this happens, we'd need a fix date by which all other MS will relinquish their veto rights, too.
So if this happens, we'd need a fix date by which all other MS will relinquish their veto rights, too.
Reposted by Manuel Müller
Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige.
In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl.
Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:
In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl.
Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:
Frisch erschienen: Die Europawahl 2024 – Rechtsruck im Schatten des Krieges
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
October 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige.
In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl.
Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:
In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl.
Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:
Frisch erschienen: Den Sammelband zur #Europawahl 2024, den ich zusammen mit Michael Kaeding und Alex Hoppe (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) herausgegeben habe, gibt es jetzt endlich auch in deutscher Fassung.
67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl.
#EP2024
67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl.
#EP2024
Die Europawahl 2024
Das Buch liefert eine umfassende Analyse der Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament 2024 und bietet Einblicke von Experten für ein tieferes Verständnis.
link.springer.com
October 20, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Frisch erschienen: Den Sammelband zur #Europawahl 2024, den ich zusammen mit Michael Kaeding und Alex Hoppe (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) herausgegeben habe, gibt es jetzt endlich auch in deutscher Fassung.
67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl.
#EP2024
67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl.
#EP2024
Some good news from #Cyprus:
Landslide win for pro-EU Turkish Cypriot candidate raises hopes for peace
Veteran leftwinger Tufan Erhürman wins after campaign on reviving stalled talks to reunify island
www.theguardian.com
October 20, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Some good news from #Cyprus:
"Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents."
Donald Trump, Inaugural Address, 20 January 2025.
Donald Trump, Inaugural Address, 20 January 2025.
October 19, 2025 at 8:21 AM
"Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents."
Donald Trump, Inaugural Address, 20 January 2025.
Donald Trump, Inaugural Address, 20 January 2025.