Welcome, Dave. 👋

You may find it's a bit quieter here... but the discourse is often more thoughtful, constructive, and rational.

Keep fighting the good fight, and thx for sharing the wisdom that you so frequently do.

I'm taking the "no risk it, no biscuit" approach to the next few months here. It will be scary & uncomfortable, just like every cycle before this.

I'm doing this because I still believe this cycle tops at ~$5T-$6T, not $3.7T.

I'm planning on the blue option & will continue to DCA alts + BTC throughout Jan/Feb.

It might cost me if the red scenario becomes true, but there's not much difference in my life whether it does or doesn't. 🤷‍♂️

If I'm right, however - I can help my family in ways I've always dreamt of.

Crypto is never easy. It's never a straight line.

The moment you give up, price reverses & soars to new highs without you, making giving up 2x more painful.

If you hold with conviction, it just keeps going down (at least it can sure feel that way!)

This market rewards conviction & patience.

Red Scenario Options:

1) Hold coins and conviction
- GL with that
- Watch your bags drop every week for months/years
- Become a long term investor in "CATCOIN" 🤪

2) Sell @ $79k
- You lost the fight this cycle
- Harvest tax losses
- Begin planning a strategy for the next cycle
- Begin DCA in 2026

Poor macro + dilution of alts would be supportive of this narrative being true. This would send BTC back to the $64k range with alts doing their thing, which includes watching every one of them drop at least 90% in value.

IF BTC loses the $80k area, it's time to take whatever you can get and bail.

Red Scenario:

This is the 2nd most probable scenario, imo...which is a bit scary. This scenario would indicate the end of this cycle with the HTF BTC top being $108,297.

The lower than expected high + poor performance for alts would make this the worst cycle yet, by far.

Blue Scenario Options:

1) Hold your coins & conviction
- Very rewarding, especially w continued DCA
- Painful short term (1-2 month)
- Profitable long term (3+ month)

2) Sell
- Take a huge loss
- Miss the upwards reversal, taking another L
- Forever bitter towards markets / crypto - "It's a scam"

Holding crypto is never fun or easy. The blue scenario results in max pain w/ most quitting, even though this is truly the most profitable scenario for most of us as it would provide the fuel needed for BTC to run higher.

$84k would act as a HUGE springboard to resume the upwards price action

Blue Scenario:

This is the most probable scenario imo

- BTC loses $90k support
- Drops to $84k w/ a deviation to ~$82k
- Alts take another 30%-50% in losses
- Move scares most out of the market entirely
- Everyone sells & calls this cycle over
- Participants exit en masse
- Sharp, bullish reversal

For those in spot positions:

1) Hold your coins & conviction.
- Rewarding in the long run
- Continue DCA
- Painful in the short term
- Biggest losses if this breaks down

2) Sell now
- Take a loss
- Sleep at night
- Until it reverses & takes off without you, then max pain until retirement

Green Scenario:

I don't consider this the most probable scenario, esp. w/ equities seeing such sell pressure in parallel

- The $90k support holds w/ a slight deviation below
- BTC ounces & resumes overall upward trend
- Quick sale on alts
- BTC back towards midrange (~$98k) before next decision

Leaning bullish due to the volume indicator + overall trend.

I'm not ruling out a stop to the mid/low $80k area for BTC though. That level should generate enough interest to propel BTC through the $110k resistance for continuation up.

Might not have enough strength w/o it though.

Stop loss = 👍

Just to be clear - This is the time for patience, not panic.

We need to wait a bit to see how things unfold before decisions can be mode. We consider outcomes so we can plan and prepare for them.

The #TOTAL3 daily is a bit less clear to me, though I lean towards the green scenario - a violent flush + resume uptrend.

We could also see some chop in a range (yellow), or a continuation down (red) depending on other variables.

Cloudy, but I'm leaning bullish & will add a bit to alt positions.

Update: Fun 24 hours to watch! Turned out to be a nice liquidation candle.

Onwards and upwards.