Update - Looks like the green scenario, almost to perfection!

It's time to take an updated look for new opportunities and to continue to shape my longer term plan over the next few months.

Will update in a separate post.

"I'm kind of new to crypto and am not sure what to do"

Obviously, we're all in different scenarios, but I'd like to take a stab at probabilities and outcomes.

1st - As always, all things in crypto depend on #BTC. What BTC does impacts everything else.

Let's take a look at 3 likely scenarios:

Blue = Support
Yellow = Midrange
Orange = Resistance

- Green bar shows lowering volume on price decrease (bullish)
- Blue support shows multiple tests (bearish)
- Orange bar shows only 1 attempt at resistance (tbd)

Conflicted here & will wait for the midrange behavior for entries.

#BTC Update

Looking healthy to me for the green scenario. Back above $98k after a (bit of a scary) retest.

Always leaning long in a bull market, but we must be ready to play defense at all times, of course.

Next - looking to see if we pop, or establish a range + consolidation.

All eyes on #BTC here

If that 1st support (clear box) should fail, look out below

In simple terms, if we lose $90k I might look to exit a few positions and re-enter low

Unfortunately for some, likely much lower as you can see the space below / between the next supports imo

Could be an ugly week

#SOL alts like #FWOG have taken a beating lately as we can see here (D).

SOL doesn't look great, so the red outcome is on the table, as most tokens go the way of the parent. We are in a strong bull market though, so I expect green & am bidding on SOL alts, even if they may not be the next to run.

Also keeping a close eye on #TOTAL3, since I'm mainly in alts at this stage.

The weekly shows T3 rejected right at the previous cycle's high (I should have seen this previously!). Can't catch everything every time though!

I expect the green scenario on the weekly, but will be prepped for both.

#BTC / #BTC.D

Wow! I knew funding was high & was expecting a flush at some point. I certainly had no idea it'd be yesterday though.

So, what's next?

TL/DR:
Holders - HODL
Traders - 🤔

I'm watching BTC.D + the EMA.8/EMA.34 (in confluence) at the moment.

Rejection = Alt bid
Above = Wait for entry

#BTC $BTC

It's early, but I'm definitely watching this candle. Long wicks + heavy volume often indicate a trend reversal. In this case, we have a large wick + decent volume.

I suspect we may be forming a new channel (blue lines). Let's monitor and see!

Traders: Wait for entry
Holders: Hodl

12/4/24 - A historic day in history

$SOL / #SOL 4hr

I know an H&S when I see one. Likely downwards short term for SOL / SOL Memes.

If you're a hodler, hodl. If you're a trader, a nice short opportunity may be presenting itself here.

Remember, we are in a bull, so if you are shorting be sure to set stops & to not marry the position.

#TOTAL3

$TOTAL3

History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 🤔

#BTC.D

$BTC.D W Chart

Steady climb since mid/late 2022! Starting to approach some areas of interest. I suspect it will continue, but wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal in trend somewhere near the 68% area.

BTC.D has been difficult for me in the past - studying and learning here.

#PEPE

$PEPE resting on the EMA 34 and looking like it wants more up. Expecting continuation up from here.

#BTC

$BTC 1H

Looking like a flag and a breakout. Expecting continuation upwards along with BTC.D.

Could this be the one that pushes to $100k? 🤔

Hello, Bluesky.