Lightbucket
@lightbucket.bsky.social
20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement.
Looking at:
decarbonisation; energy;
Russia's war in Ukraine.
Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
Looking at:
decarbonisation; energy;
Russia's war in Ukraine.
Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
1/3
Germany's monthly share of electricity generation from gas hit a ten-year high in November 2025,
at 30.1% of electricity generated.
The gas share stayed below 20% for most of the last ten years, before climbing in 2025.
⸻
Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
Germany's monthly share of electricity generation from gas hit a ten-year high in November 2025,
at 30.1% of electricity generated.
The gas share stayed below 20% for most of the last ten years, before climbing in 2025.
⸻
Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
December 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
1/3
Germany's monthly share of electricity generation from gas hit a ten-year high in November 2025,
at 30.1% of electricity generated.
The gas share stayed below 20% for most of the last ten years, before climbing in 2025.
⸻
Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
Germany's monthly share of electricity generation from gas hit a ten-year high in November 2025,
at 30.1% of electricity generated.
The gas share stayed below 20% for most of the last ten years, before climbing in 2025.
⸻
Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
1/2
Italy has awarded more than 1.1 GW of capacity in its first auction exclusively for solar installations built without Chinese-manufactured equipment.
It is Italy's first solar auction implementing the resilience criteria stipulated by the EU Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).
Italy has awarded more than 1.1 GW of capacity in its first auction exclusively for solar installations built without Chinese-manufactured equipment.
It is Italy's first solar auction implementing the resilience criteria stipulated by the EU Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).
Italy awards 1.1 GW in its first non-Chinese equipment solar auction
Italy has awarded more than 1.1 GW of capacity to 88 projects in its first auction exclusively for solar installations built without Chinese-manufactured equipment, setting an average price of €66/MWh...
www.enerdata.net
December 21, 2025 at 11:49 AM
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Italy has awarded more than 1.1 GW of capacity in its first auction exclusively for solar installations built without Chinese-manufactured equipment.
It is Italy's first solar auction implementing the resilience criteria stipulated by the EU Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).
Italy has awarded more than 1.1 GW of capacity in its first auction exclusively for solar installations built without Chinese-manufactured equipment.
It is Italy's first solar auction implementing the resilience criteria stipulated by the EU Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).
Reposted by Lightbucket
My blog on Wordpress: lightbucket.wordpress.com
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October 22, 2025 at 10:26 AM
My blog on Wordpress: lightbucket.wordpress.com
👇
👇
#pricescrapbook, French nuclear.
Preliminary cost estimate for the
6× EPR2 reactors in France (2 each at Penly, Gravelines & Bugey):
• €72.8 billion (2020 prices);
• = US$85.3 billion;
• = €7265/kW;
• 40-year CfD at €100/MWh (2024 prices) energynews.pro/en/edf-and-t...;
• First due in 2038.
Preliminary cost estimate for the
6× EPR2 reactors in France (2 each at Penly, Gravelines & Bugey):
• €72.8 billion (2020 prices);
• = US$85.3 billion;
• = €7265/kW;
• 40-year CfD at €100/MWh (2024 prices) energynews.pro/en/edf-and-t...;
• First due in 2038.
EDF estimates EPR2 programme cost at EUR72.8 billion
France's EDF has said its preliminary cost estimate for the project to build six EPR2 reactors at Penly, Gravelines and Bugey totals EUR72.8 billion (USD85.3 billion).
;
www.world-nuclear-news.org
December 20, 2025 at 12:13 PM
#pricescrapbook, French nuclear.
Preliminary cost estimate for the
6× EPR2 reactors in France (2 each at Penly, Gravelines & Bugey):
• €72.8 billion (2020 prices);
• = US$85.3 billion;
• = €7265/kW;
• 40-year CfD at €100/MWh (2024 prices) energynews.pro/en/edf-and-t...;
• First due in 2038.
Preliminary cost estimate for the
6× EPR2 reactors in France (2 each at Penly, Gravelines & Bugey):
• €72.8 billion (2020 prices);
• = US$85.3 billion;
• = €7265/kW;
• 40-year CfD at €100/MWh (2024 prices) energynews.pro/en/edf-and-t...;
• First due in 2038.
Reposted by Lightbucket
What to make of the EU decision on funding for Ukraine? It is a good outcome in my opinion. Here is why:
December 19, 2025 at 4:12 PM
What to make of the EU decision on funding for Ukraine? It is a good outcome in my opinion. Here is why:
Reposted by Lightbucket
In response to the reappearance of MMT, I have, somewhat reluctantly, written up where the current crop of 'pop MMT' goes wrong.
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
What’s wrong with MMT?
As Marc Lavoie and John Quiggin have noted, there are ‘two MMTs’. Scholars such as Randy Wray, Eric Tymoigne and Scott Fulwiler have contributed to debates on monetary economics, instit…
criticalfinance.org
December 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
In response to the reappearance of MMT, I have, somewhat reluctantly, written up where the current crop of 'pop MMT' goes wrong.
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
December 19th 2025:
Russia cuts its key interest rate from 16.5% to 16.0%.
It had been at 21% for over 7 months from 25th October 2024 to 6th June 2025.
Next key rate meeting: 13th Feb. 2026.
#Russianeconomy
10 years of interest rates, for context 👇:
⸻
Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
Russia cuts its key interest rate from 16.5% to 16.0%.
It had been at 21% for over 7 months from 25th October 2024 to 6th June 2025.
Next key rate meeting: 13th Feb. 2026.
#Russianeconomy
10 years of interest rates, for context 👇:
⸻
Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
December 19, 2025 at 11:35 AM
December 19th 2025:
Russia cuts its key interest rate from 16.5% to 16.0%.
It had been at 21% for over 7 months from 25th October 2024 to 6th June 2025.
Next key rate meeting: 13th Feb. 2026.
#Russianeconomy
10 years of interest rates, for context 👇:
⸻
Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
Russia cuts its key interest rate from 16.5% to 16.0%.
It had been at 21% for over 7 months from 25th October 2024 to 6th June 2025.
Next key rate meeting: 13th Feb. 2026.
#Russianeconomy
10 years of interest rates, for context 👇:
⸻
Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
1/2
The Low Carbon Contracts Company has issued its Determination for Q2 2026 (i.e. Apr–Jun).
The technology-averaged CfD strike prices are forecast to be:
Offshore wind: £158.80/MWh
Onshore wind: £114.80/MWh
Solar PV: £68.00/MWh
The Market Reference Prices (set by gas, mostly) are ~£69/MWh.
The Low Carbon Contracts Company has issued its Determination for Q2 2026 (i.e. Apr–Jun).
The technology-averaged CfD strike prices are forecast to be:
Offshore wind: £158.80/MWh
Onshore wind: £114.80/MWh
Solar PV: £68.00/MWh
The Market Reference Prices (set by gas, mostly) are ~£69/MWh.
December 18, 2025 at 12:06 PM
1/2
The Low Carbon Contracts Company has issued its Determination for Q2 2026 (i.e. Apr–Jun).
The technology-averaged CfD strike prices are forecast to be:
Offshore wind: £158.80/MWh
Onshore wind: £114.80/MWh
Solar PV: £68.00/MWh
The Market Reference Prices (set by gas, mostly) are ~£69/MWh.
The Low Carbon Contracts Company has issued its Determination for Q2 2026 (i.e. Apr–Jun).
The technology-averaged CfD strike prices are forecast to be:
Offshore wind: £158.80/MWh
Onshore wind: £114.80/MWh
Solar PV: £68.00/MWh
The Market Reference Prices (set by gas, mostly) are ~£69/MWh.
Grangemouth is the last UK plant making ethylene,
which feeds into the UK Ethylene Pipeline System,
and is then used to make a wide range of plastics
(polyester; PVC; polyethylene…)
The £120m bailout keeps the Grangemouth plant going.
👇
which feeds into the UK Ethylene Pipeline System,
and is then used to make a wide range of plastics
(polyester; PVC; polyethylene…)
The £120m bailout keeps the Grangemouth plant going.
👇
✍️Why on earth is the Government forking out £120m of taxpayer money to save a Scottish chemicals plant?
The answer comes back to one of the most important, and least well-known, pipelines in the country.
The backstory of today's Grangemouth bail-out👇 news.sky.com/story/christ...
The answer comes back to one of the most important, and least well-known, pipelines in the country.
The backstory of today's Grangemouth bail-out👇 news.sky.com/story/christ...
Christmas cheer for Britain's biggest chemical plant, but there are two distinct problems
The government has just announced it's spending more than £120m to bail out the country's last chemical plant at Grangemouth in Scotland. While this package will undoubtedly provide some Christmas che...
news.sky.com
December 17, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Grangemouth is the last UK plant making ethylene,
which feeds into the UK Ethylene Pipeline System,
and is then used to make a wide range of plastics
(polyester; PVC; polyethylene…)
The £120m bailout keeps the Grangemouth plant going.
👇
which feeds into the UK Ethylene Pipeline System,
and is then used to make a wide range of plastics
(polyester; PVC; polyethylene…)
The £120m bailout keeps the Grangemouth plant going.
👇
Reposted by Lightbucket
This is potentially one of the most transformational policies this government has done if it holds its nerve.
NEW: Labour just announced the biggest change in planning policy in 80 years.
My breakdown of the key measures and whether they will succeed.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/labour-are...
My breakdown of the key measures and whether they will succeed.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/labour-are...
Labour are finally taking the housing shortage seriously
Is the new National Planning Policy Framework Labour’s biggest pro-growth move?
www.samdumitriu.com
December 17, 2025 at 12:11 PM
This is potentially one of the most transformational policies this government has done if it holds its nerve.
Poland launches its first competitive offshore wind CfD auction:
• Up to 4 GW of capacity in the Baltic Sea;
• CfD max. strike price of €115–€122/MWh;
At least 3 projects likely to participate:
• Equinor & Polenergeia’s Baltyk 1;
• PGE Baltica & Orsted’s Baltica 1;
• Orlen’s Baltic East.
• Up to 4 GW of capacity in the Baltic Sea;
• CfD max. strike price of €115–€122/MWh;
At least 3 projects likely to participate:
• Equinor & Polenergeia’s Baltyk 1;
• PGE Baltica & Orsted’s Baltica 1;
• Orlen’s Baltic East.
renews.biz
December 17, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Poland launches its first competitive offshore wind CfD auction:
• Up to 4 GW of capacity in the Baltic Sea;
• CfD max. strike price of €115–€122/MWh;
At least 3 projects likely to participate:
• Equinor & Polenergeia’s Baltyk 1;
• PGE Baltica & Orsted’s Baltica 1;
• Orlen’s Baltic East.
• Up to 4 GW of capacity in the Baltic Sea;
• CfD max. strike price of €115–€122/MWh;
At least 3 projects likely to participate:
• Equinor & Polenergeia’s Baltyk 1;
• PGE Baltica & Orsted’s Baltica 1;
• Orlen’s Baltic East.
Reposted by Lightbucket
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
An agreement to rejoin Erasmus – the EU’s student exchange programme – is expected to be announced on Wednesday as part of the UK government’s drive towards closer relations with Brussels.
The final details of the announcement were agreed by the two sides on Tuesday, with a plan to allow UK students to participate in the EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources said. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 16, 2025 at 6:26 PM
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
❝ Urals crude sold for an average of $38.28/bbl in Novorossiysk during the week ending Dec. 7, down $2.80 from the previous week.
In the Baltic ports, prices dropped $2.40 to $41.16/bbl.
The average discount on Urals relative to Brent crude reached $25.80/bbl, approaching historical records.❞
In the Baltic ports, prices dropped $2.40 to $41.16/bbl.
The average discount on Urals relative to Brent crude reached $25.80/bbl, approaching historical records.❞
Russian Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level Since Ukraine Invasion – Bloomberg - The Moscow Times
Prices for Russian crude shipments from its Black Sea and Pacific ports have fallen to their lowest levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing...
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 16, 2025 at 12:51 PM
❝ Urals crude sold for an average of $38.28/bbl in Novorossiysk during the week ending Dec. 7, down $2.80 from the previous week.
In the Baltic ports, prices dropped $2.40 to $41.16/bbl.
The average discount on Urals relative to Brent crude reached $25.80/bbl, approaching historical records.❞
In the Baltic ports, prices dropped $2.40 to $41.16/bbl.
The average discount on Urals relative to Brent crude reached $25.80/bbl, approaching historical records.❞
1/2
There's an enormous north-south divide in the curtailment of wind power in the UK.
Northern Scotland had 37% (about 4 TWh) of its wind power curtailed in 1H 2025, at a cost of over £116 m, enough to power all Scottish domestic electricity demand over that six-month period.
👇
There's an enormous north-south divide in the curtailment of wind power in the UK.
Northern Scotland had 37% (about 4 TWh) of its wind power curtailed in 1H 2025, at a cost of over £116 m, enough to power all Scottish domestic electricity demand over that six-month period.
👇
December 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
1/2
There's an enormous north-south divide in the curtailment of wind power in the UK.
Northern Scotland had 37% (about 4 TWh) of its wind power curtailed in 1H 2025, at a cost of over £116 m, enough to power all Scottish domestic electricity demand over that six-month period.
👇
There's an enormous north-south divide in the curtailment of wind power in the UK.
Northern Scotland had 37% (about 4 TWh) of its wind power curtailed in 1H 2025, at a cost of over £116 m, enough to power all Scottish domestic electricity demand over that six-month period.
👇
1/2
Octopus Case Study on regional pricing.
Two case studies:
• locating a large new data centre, with fixed demand, in Aberdeen rather than Slough;
• locating a large new electrolyser for hydrogen production, with flexible demand, in Peterhead in Scotland rather than on the Isle of Grain.
Octopus Case Study on regional pricing.
Two case studies:
• locating a large new data centre, with fixed demand, in Aberdeen rather than Slough;
• locating a large new electrolyser for hydrogen production, with flexible demand, in Peterhead in Scotland rather than on the Isle of Grain.
December 14, 2025 at 3:56 PM
1/2
Octopus Case Study on regional pricing.
Two case studies:
• locating a large new data centre, with fixed demand, in Aberdeen rather than Slough;
• locating a large new electrolyser for hydrogen production, with flexible demand, in Peterhead in Scotland rather than on the Isle of Grain.
Octopus Case Study on regional pricing.
Two case studies:
• locating a large new data centre, with fixed demand, in Aberdeen rather than Slough;
• locating a large new electrolyser for hydrogen production, with flexible demand, in Peterhead in Scotland rather than on the Isle of Grain.
Reposted by Lightbucket
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure - Dieter Helm
Some people – and some politicians – seem to believe that if you keep repeating claims eventually they will be believed, even as the evidence unfolds that they are obviously just not true. Any counter...
dieterhelm.co.uk
December 13, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
Reposted by Lightbucket
Adjusted for the difference in price level, GDP per capita has grown 70% in the US since 1990 vs. 63% in the EU27
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
December 12, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Adjusted for the difference in price level, GDP per capita has grown 70% in the US since 1990 vs. 63% in the EU27
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
Press agency headline:
❝ Kremlin says US national security strategy document ‘largely consistent' with Russia's vision.❞
www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/kr...
… to which former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt responds on X with:
❝ That’s it. Very little else to add.❞
x.com/carlbildt/st...
❝ Kremlin says US national security strategy document ‘largely consistent' with Russia's vision.❞
www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/kr...
… to which former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt responds on X with:
❝ That’s it. Very little else to add.❞
x.com/carlbildt/st...
December 13, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Press agency headline:
❝ Kremlin says US national security strategy document ‘largely consistent' with Russia's vision.❞
www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/kr...
… to which former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt responds on X with:
❝ That’s it. Very little else to add.❞
x.com/carlbildt/st...
❝ Kremlin says US national security strategy document ‘largely consistent' with Russia's vision.❞
www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/kr...
… to which former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt responds on X with:
❝ That’s it. Very little else to add.❞
x.com/carlbildt/st...
Curtailment of wind:
On Dec. 10th, 97,830 MWh (=4.1 GW av.) of UK wind energy was curtailed, because the grid couldn't carry it.
Wind farms were paid £4,026,927 to *not* generate that energy,
and £9,319,760 was spent to buy that energy elsewhere.
⸻
Ref: Octopus Energy wastedwind.energy/2025-12-10
On Dec. 10th, 97,830 MWh (=4.1 GW av.) of UK wind energy was curtailed, because the grid couldn't carry it.
Wind farms were paid £4,026,927 to *not* generate that energy,
and £9,319,760 was spent to buy that energy elsewhere.
⸻
Ref: Octopus Energy wastedwind.energy/2025-12-10
December 13, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Curtailment of wind:
On Dec. 10th, 97,830 MWh (=4.1 GW av.) of UK wind energy was curtailed, because the grid couldn't carry it.
Wind farms were paid £4,026,927 to *not* generate that energy,
and £9,319,760 was spent to buy that energy elsewhere.
⸻
Ref: Octopus Energy wastedwind.energy/2025-12-10
On Dec. 10th, 97,830 MWh (=4.1 GW av.) of UK wind energy was curtailed, because the grid couldn't carry it.
Wind farms were paid £4,026,927 to *not* generate that energy,
and £9,319,760 was spent to buy that energy elsewhere.
⸻
Ref: Octopus Energy wastedwind.energy/2025-12-10
❝ EU countries agreed to indefinitely immobilise Russian sovereign assets on Thursday, removing a major obstacle to providing a €210 billion “reparations loan” to Ukraine.
…
Use of “Article 122“ … is critical to avoid the assets being returned to Russia if sanctions on the Kremlin are lifted,❞
…
Use of “Article 122“ … is critical to avoid the assets being returned to Russia if sanctions on the Kremlin are lifted,❞
EU greenlights indefinite immobilisation of Russian assets | Euractiv
The move comes a day after Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever openly questioned the legality of the European Commission’s proposal to permanently freeze Moscow's funds
www.euractiv.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:26 AM
❝ EU countries agreed to indefinitely immobilise Russian sovereign assets on Thursday, removing a major obstacle to providing a €210 billion “reparations loan” to Ukraine.
…
Use of “Article 122“ … is critical to avoid the assets being returned to Russia if sanctions on the Kremlin are lifted,❞
…
Use of “Article 122“ … is critical to avoid the assets being returned to Russia if sanctions on the Kremlin are lifted,❞
Reposted by Lightbucket
At last, a chance to repost my favourite ever font-related controversy with alt-text, now that Calibri is back in the news.
December 11, 2025 at 12:56 PM
At last, a chance to repost my favourite ever font-related controversy with alt-text, now that Calibri is back in the news.
Ofgem has approved updated delivery dates and early investment for:
• Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• Eastern Green Link 4 (EGL4): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• GWNC: onshore link.
Ofgem has set target dates of December 2033 for GWNC
and August 2034 for EGL3 and EGL4.
• Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• Eastern Green Link 4 (EGL4): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• GWNC: onshore link.
Ofgem has set target dates of December 2033 for GWNC
and August 2034 for EGL3 and EGL4.
Ofgem agrees early investment and updated dates for proposed electricity superhighways
Ofgem has approved updated delivery dates and early investment for three major projects which will help boost Great Britain’s energy security and clean power ambitions and deliver projected savings fo...
www.ofgem.gov.uk
December 11, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Ofgem has approved updated delivery dates and early investment for:
• Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• Eastern Green Link 4 (EGL4): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• GWNC: onshore link.
Ofgem has set target dates of December 2033 for GWNC
and August 2034 for EGL3 and EGL4.
• Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• Eastern Green Link 4 (EGL4): 2 GW HVDC offshore link;
• GWNC: onshore link.
Ofgem has set target dates of December 2033 for GWNC
and August 2034 for EGL3 and EGL4.
European Commission approves state aid for the construction and operation of Poland's first nuclear power plant:
• 3× 1250 MWe AP-1000;
• Owner is Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe;
• Located in Lubiatowo-Kopalino;
• Estimated cost €42 billion.
⸻
Ref: ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
• 3× 1250 MWe AP-1000;
• Owner is Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe;
• Located in Lubiatowo-Kopalino;
• Estimated cost €42 billion.
⸻
Ref: ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
December 10, 2025 at 11:08 AM
European Commission approves state aid for the construction and operation of Poland's first nuclear power plant:
• 3× 1250 MWe AP-1000;
• Owner is Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe;
• Located in Lubiatowo-Kopalino;
• Estimated cost €42 billion.
⸻
Ref: ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
• 3× 1250 MWe AP-1000;
• Owner is Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe;
• Located in Lubiatowo-Kopalino;
• Estimated cost €42 billion.
⸻
Ref: ec.europa.eu/commission/p...