Lightbucket
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lightbucket.bsky.social
Lightbucket
@lightbucket.bsky.social
20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement.

Looking at:
decarbonisation; energy;
Russia's war in Ukraine.

Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
3/3

The five German LNG floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) terminals are:

 • Mukran
 • Lubmin
 • Wilhelmshaven
 • Stade
 • Brunsbuettel


Refs:
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
europeangashub.com/fid-nears-fo...
December 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
2/3

Germany's gas use is set to rise even further:

Germany Goes On LNG Import Terminal Building Spree.

The five LNG import terminals will provide Germany with an import capacity of 70.7 million tons of liquefied gas annually by 2030.


Ref: Oil Price oilprice.com/Energy/Natur...
December 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
2/2

Auction details:

 • 1.1 GW of PV capacity;
 • 88 projects;
 • Average price of €66.37/MWh;
 • Tariff is 17% higher than the average price in an earlier 2025 auction, which had no restrictions on equipment origin;
 • Developers are required to bring plants online within 36 months.
December 21, 2025 at 11:49 AM
2/2 (…update)

 ❝ The price of Urals crude shipped from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk fell to $34.52/bbl as of Dec. 16, roughly half the level at the start of the year.

Discounts on Urals crude reached $23–25/bbl in Novorossiysk and $24/bbl in Baltic ports, Argus Media reported.❞
Russian Oil Prices Sink Below $35 Per Barrel - The Moscow Times
Russian oil prices continue to plunge under the pressure of U.S. sanctions that have disrupted established export flows to India and China.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 20, 2025 at 11:49 AM
6/6

The 2025/26 average strike price is
£135/MWh, forecast to fall to
£85/MWh by 2040/41.

The forecast goes up to AR6, it'll need updating after the AR7 outcome.

———
Ref: LCCC Scheme Dashboards, CfD Portfolio Forecast
www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...
December 19, 2025 at 3:45 PM
5/6 (…contd.)

Here's how the LCCC expects CfD strike prices to evolve from now to 2040/41.

The chart shows the forecast strike price averaged over all technologies and all Allocation Rounds, and the forecast wholesale price.

Strike prices are CPI-linked, but are shown here in constant 2025 money.
December 19, 2025 at 3:45 PM
4/4 (…contd.)

Here's the technology-averaged CfD subsidy (i.e. the difference between the CfD Strike Price and the Market Reference Price) and the forecast average generation, by technology type, for Q2 2026.
(HPC also shown for reference).


Ref: LCCC www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...
December 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
3/3 (…contd.)

Here are the forecast technology-averaged CfD strike prices for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar PV for the most recent four quarters (CPI-adjusted).

👇
December 18, 2025 at 12:37 PM
2/2

Solar PV has had a negative CfD subsidy in recent quarters,

but for Q2 2026
its average CfD strike price is
£68.00/MWh,

whereas its forecast average Market Reference Price is lower, at
£63.54/MWh

so it now has a positive CfD subsidy, along with all other technologies.


Ref: LCCC Dashboard👇
CfD Determination - Low Carbon Contracts
Low Carbon Contracts Company
www.lowcarboncontracts.uk
December 18, 2025 at 12:06 PM
5/5

Offshore wind in the UK will not hit an area limit, ever.

There is far more sea area than will ever be needed for UK generating capacity.

There's plenty of scope for cost-optimising location versus grid access costs.
December 15, 2025 at 3:36 PM