Tim Hayes
@letsnotbehayest.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Quantitative Psychology at Florida International University (FIU).
Web: timhayesquant.com
Web: timhayesquant.com
Happy Friday! I am clearly in a mood.
October 10, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Happy Friday! I am clearly in a mood.
October 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Reposted by Tim Hayes
Please share this opportunity to listen to Dr. Kenneth Bollen talk about #StructuralEquationModeling. Check it out and register, it’s free! bit.ly/3Jrw2Es
From Latent Variables to Causal Inference: Understanding Structural Equation Models
From Latent Variables to Causal Inference: Understanding Structural Equation Models
bit.ly
August 23, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Please share this opportunity to listen to Dr. Kenneth Bollen talk about #StructuralEquationModeling. Check it out and register, it’s free! bit.ly/3Jrw2Es
Who needs ordinal regression. I mean, it’s not like nearly *all* of our variables are ordinal or anything … 🤣😂😢
one thing I learned fairly early in my statistical consulting career: if you suggest using ordinal regression, all of your collaborators will hate you
47. People really don't know what to do with ordinal variables, so they either treat them as continuous or dichotomize them
July 28, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Who needs ordinal regression. I mean, it’s not like nearly *all* of our variables are ordinal or anything … 🤣😂😢
FIU is disabling email forwarding as of tomorrow, which is understandable for cybersecurity but means I’ll have to send all emails using their garbage Microsoft Outlook interface.
On the bright side, I guess this’ll help my compulsive email checking, since I refuse to get outlook on my phone.
On the bright side, I guess this’ll help my compulsive email checking, since I refuse to get outlook on my phone.
June 25, 2025 at 6:41 PM
FIU is disabling email forwarding as of tomorrow, which is understandable for cybersecurity but means I’ll have to send all emails using their garbage Microsoft Outlook interface.
On the bright side, I guess this’ll help my compulsive email checking, since I refuse to get outlook on my phone.
On the bright side, I guess this’ll help my compulsive email checking, since I refuse to get outlook on my phone.
Great thread in which @kevinmking.bsky.social says everything I think and feel about latent classes. From now on, any time people ask me about these analyses, I’m going to just send them a link to this thread.
@drandreahoward.bsky.social, hold my beer..
Latent class growth models are worse than useless, and we've known this for more than 20 years.
(See Bauer 2007)
Latent class growth models are worse than useless, and we've known this for more than 20 years.
(See Bauer 2007)
i’m not going to write a thread today about problems with latent class growth analyses nope nope NOPE i won’t do it
June 21, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Great thread in which @kevinmking.bsky.social says everything I think and feel about latent classes. From now on, any time people ask me about these analyses, I’m going to just send them a link to this thread.
“Most youth own smartphones.”
June 8, 2025 at 6:57 PM
“Most youth own smartphones.”
Had a blast teaching SEM at #APS2025! Great group of workshop attendees asking thoughtful, engaging questions. Hopefully folks learned something and had fun in the process!
May 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Had a blast teaching SEM at #APS2025! Great group of workshop attendees asking thoughtful, engaging questions. Hopefully folks learned something and had fun in the process!
Reposted by Tim Hayes
Last chance to sign up for Intro (June 9-13) and Advanced (June 16-20) Mediation & Moderation at GSERM either in-person in beautiful St. Gallen, Switzerland or online from the comfort of your own home/office. gserm.org/programme/co...
Course table - University of St.Gallen – GSERM
The highlight of GSERM summer school regularly takes place in June: more than 30 courses at the campus of the University of St.Gallen.
gserm.org
May 18, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Last chance to sign up for Intro (June 9-13) and Advanced (June 16-20) Mediation & Moderation at GSERM either in-person in beautiful St. Gallen, Switzerland or online from the comfort of your own home/office. gserm.org/programme/co...
8 mo home sick from daycare. No big deal but marathon kinda day. Circa hour 11 of the waking day we’re watching Ms Rachel-throwing that at the wall in case it sticks-and all of a sudden, I swear, she goes,
“Can you say … help? … HELP … heeeeeelp …”
And my brain starts to break, just a little. 😅😂🤣
“Can you say … help? … HELP … heeeeeelp …”
And my brain starts to break, just a little. 😅😂🤣
May 14, 2025 at 8:32 PM
8 mo home sick from daycare. No big deal but marathon kinda day. Circa hour 11 of the waking day we’re watching Ms Rachel-throwing that at the wall in case it sticks-and all of a sudden, I swear, she goes,
“Can you say … help? … HELP … heeeeeelp …”
And my brain starts to break, just a little. 😅😂🤣
“Can you say … help? … HELP … heeeeeelp …”
And my brain starts to break, just a little. 😅😂🤣
Definitely take the free SEM workshop with @centerstat.org!
And while we’re also shamelessly promoting our own things, I know of an SEM workshop at APS next week that I can recommend as well … 😉
www.psychologicalscience.org/conventions/...
And while we’re also shamelessly promoting our own things, I know of an SEM workshop at APS next week that I can recommend as well … 😉
www.psychologicalscience.org/conventions/...
May 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Definitely take the free SEM workshop with @centerstat.org!
And while we’re also shamelessly promoting our own things, I know of an SEM workshop at APS next week that I can recommend as well … 😉
www.psychologicalscience.org/conventions/...
And while we’re also shamelessly promoting our own things, I know of an SEM workshop at APS next week that I can recommend as well … 😉
www.psychologicalscience.org/conventions/...
Reposted by Tim Hayes
If you are planning to attend #APS2025 next week, please come by our (@winterstat.bsky.social & @ashleylwatts.bsky.social) invited symposium on the myriad problems of widespread statistical model evaluation practices (e.g., goodness-of-fit testing), along with some insightful solutions
May 14, 2025 at 3:24 PM
If you are planning to attend #APS2025 next week, please come by our (@winterstat.bsky.social & @ashleylwatts.bsky.social) invited symposium on the myriad problems of widespread statistical model evaluation practices (e.g., goodness-of-fit testing), along with some insightful solutions
I have neither beneficence nor respect for the persons who created the extremely long CITI Training Good Clinical Practice modules and mandatory 100% quiz question pass rate requirement. 😒
April 29, 2025 at 4:36 PM
I have neither beneficence nor respect for the persons who created the extremely long CITI Training Good Clinical Practice modules and mandatory 100% quiz question pass rate requirement. 😒
Matrix overview slides for my regression class are coming along.
April 12, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Matrix overview slides for my regression class are coming along.
Hey @wesbonifay.bsky.social, I finally got a NYT Letterboxed in 2 words, so now I’m preparing to ascend to heaven as a being made of pure light. 🙌🏻🌅
Just figured you’d want to know.
Just figured you’d want to know.
April 9, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Hey @wesbonifay.bsky.social, I finally got a NYT Letterboxed in 2 words, so now I’m preparing to ascend to heaven as a being made of pure light. 🙌🏻🌅
Just figured you’d want to know.
Just figured you’d want to know.
The negative binomial is just like the regular binomial, except everything is terrible and nothing matters and what’s even the point?
April 8, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The negative binomial is just like the regular binomial, except everything is terrible and nothing matters and what’s even the point?
It is only our hubris that ever led us to name it “the negative binomial distribution” instead of “the Poisson distribution with wiggly gamma means.”
April 4, 2025 at 5:40 PM
It is only our hubris that ever led us to name it “the negative binomial distribution” instead of “the Poisson distribution with wiggly gamma means.”
Reposted by Tim Hayes
New paper on dealing with MNAR intensive longitudinal data. Ran into this problem in an empirical study and didn't find too much in the methods literature on MNAR ILD, so this was the best I could come up with. Lots of opportunity to improve methods in this area!
psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...
psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...
April 2, 2025 at 9:19 AM
New paper on dealing with MNAR intensive longitudinal data. Ran into this problem in an empirical study and didn't find too much in the methods literature on MNAR ILD, so this was the best I could come up with. Lots of opportunity to improve methods in this area!
psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...
psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...
As always, treating the history of statistics with the respect and reverence that it deserves.
February 27, 2025 at 4:19 PM
As always, treating the history of statistics with the respect and reverence that it deserves.
I can’t catch a break.
But I *can* catch literally every virus my daughter picks up at daycare.
But I *can* catch literally every virus my daughter picks up at daycare.
February 27, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I can’t catch a break.
But I *can* catch literally every virus my daughter picks up at daycare.
But I *can* catch literally every virus my daughter picks up at daycare.
One of the old FIU cybersecurity trainings talked about building a ‘strong shield’ against cybersecurity threats.
Now, when I report a phishing email or text, in my head, I’m like, “FUCK YOU, MY SHIELD IS STRONG!”
Not sure if that means that the training was effective or not.
Now, when I report a phishing email or text, in my head, I’m like, “FUCK YOU, MY SHIELD IS STRONG!”
Not sure if that means that the training was effective or not.
February 27, 2025 at 2:23 PM
One of the old FIU cybersecurity trainings talked about building a ‘strong shield’ against cybersecurity threats.
Now, when I report a phishing email or text, in my head, I’m like, “FUCK YOU, MY SHIELD IS STRONG!”
Not sure if that means that the training was effective or not.
Now, when I report a phishing email or text, in my head, I’m like, “FUCK YOU, MY SHIELD IS STRONG!”
Not sure if that means that the training was effective or not.
No one:
Daycare: March 3rd is dress up like Dr Seuss day! 😃
Daycare: March 3rd is dress up like Dr Seuss day! 😃
February 26, 2025 at 7:49 PM
No one:
Daycare: March 3rd is dress up like Dr Seuss day! 😃
Daycare: March 3rd is dress up like Dr Seuss day! 😃
First he called my dependent variable a count (rude), then he told me to run a POISON REGRESSION. 😳☠️
February 26, 2025 at 6:27 PM
First he called my dependent variable a count (rude), then he told me to run a POISON REGRESSION. 😳☠️
Count outcome slides are coming along.
February 26, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Count outcome slides are coming along.