Latin American Elections
@latamerelection.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science
Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/elections-in-latin-america-9781538189030/
Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/elections-in-latin-america-9781538189030/
The state of play in Honduras: with 55.9% of the vote in, Tito Asfura has a *very* slim lead over Salvador Nasralla. Moncada of the incumbent Libre party is getting crushed. No congressional results yet. High possibility of contested result b/w Asfura and Nasralla. No concession from Moncada yet.
December 1, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The state of play in Honduras: with 55.9% of the vote in, Tito Asfura has a *very* slim lead over Salvador Nasralla. Moncada of the incumbent Libre party is getting crushed. No congressional results yet. High possibility of contested result b/w Asfura and Nasralla. No concession from Moncada yet.
Not a lot to be excited about for tomorrow's election in Honduras.
November 29, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Not a lot to be excited about for tomorrow's election in Honduras.
Bolsonaro & Trump have been political doppelgängers, including parallel attempts to overturn an election through a coup. So it’s remarkable to see contrasting headlines today: in one case, the continuation of autocratic populism; in the other, the start of a long prison sentence.
November 26, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Bolsonaro & Trump have been political doppelgängers, including parallel attempts to overturn an election through a coup. So it’s remarkable to see contrasting headlines today: in one case, the continuation of autocratic populism; in the other, the start of a long prison sentence.
Two weeks from now:
November 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Two weeks from now:
4/ Behind Kast are other conservatives. Johannes Kaiser is the libertarian Milei figure in the race. Evelyn Matthei is the more traditional conservative in the race. She’s experienced, but also her campaign produced one of the most cringy ads I’ve ever seen. 🤦♂️
November 14, 2025 at 12:03 AM
4/ Behind Kast are other conservatives. Johannes Kaiser is the libertarian Milei figure in the race. Evelyn Matthei is the more traditional conservative in the race. She’s experienced, but also her campaign produced one of the most cringy ads I’ve ever seen. 🤦♂️
2/ For the presidency, Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party holds a very narrow lead in the polls for the 1st round. But the most likely outcome is for Jara to lose a runoff against one of the conservative candidates.
November 14, 2025 at 12:03 AM
2/ For the presidency, Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party holds a very narrow lead in the polls for the 1st round. But the most likely outcome is for Jara to lose a runoff against one of the conservative candidates.
Today I learned the exact playlist the U.S. military blasted at the Vatican embassy in Panama to get Noriega to surrender. 🎸
November 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Today I learned the exact playlist the U.S. military blasted at the Vatican embassy in Panama to get Noriega to surrender. 🎸
Sic Semper Tyrannis
November 5, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Sic Semper Tyrannis
In Virginia (my home state), the resistance vote is strong. See the margin shifts from the 2021 to 2025 gubernatorial race (with 40% of votes in), from AP. Congrats to @abigailspanberger.com on the landslide!
November 5, 2025 at 1:07 AM
In Virginia (my home state), the resistance vote is strong. See the margin shifts from the 2021 to 2025 gubernatorial race (with 40% of votes in), from AP. Congrats to @abigailspanberger.com on the landslide!
You know you're about to read a good article when the title comes from a line in The Wire.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
November 3, 2025 at 12:16 PM
You know you're about to read a good article when the title comes from a line in The Wire.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
An admonishment ought to do it
October 29, 2025 at 1:07 AM
An admonishment ought to do it
Here's what Argentina's Chamber of Deputies will look like after yesterday's election. LLA+PRO will have almost 42% of seats (36% for LLA alone). Still a minority, but a much stronger position for Milei. Now he needs to deliver economic growth, or the🦁quickly becomes a lame🦆.
October 27, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Here's what Argentina's Chamber of Deputies will look like after yesterday's election. LLA+PRO will have almost 42% of seats (36% for LLA alone). Still a minority, but a much stronger position for Milei. Now he needs to deliver economic growth, or the🦁quickly becomes a lame🦆.
Rodrigo Paz has won the presidential runoff in Bolivia.
October 20, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Rodrigo Paz has won the presidential runoff in Bolivia.
“The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.” -James Madison, Federalist #47
October 18, 2025 at 11:37 AM
“The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.” -James Madison, Federalist #47
I'm re-reading some history of El Salvador and realized all of these books were published from 1994-1997. It’s hard to think of another short period when so many good monographs were produced on a country (except Nicaragua 1980s-early 1990s).
October 14, 2025 at 11:45 PM
I'm re-reading some history of El Salvador and realized all of these books were published from 1994-1997. It’s hard to think of another short period when so many good monographs were produced on a country (except Nicaragua 1980s-early 1990s).
Every day is January 6th now.
October 8, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Every day is January 6th now.
A functioning democracy would be beginning impeachment proceedings this afternoon.
September 30, 2025 at 2:57 PM
A functioning democracy would be beginning impeachment proceedings this afternoon.
Interview line of the week:
September 27, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Interview line of the week:
The good news is that Trump *IS NOT POPULAR.* Most autocratizing leaders have been successful in strangling democracy only when they’re popular.
September 18, 2025 at 7:58 PM
The good news is that Trump *IS NOT POPULAR.* Most autocratizing leaders have been successful in strangling democracy only when they’re popular.
Oh, and the National Guard is being deployed to Democratic strongholds against the wishes of local authorities on the pretext of combating crime.
September 18, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Oh, and the National Guard is being deployed to Democratic strongholds against the wishes of local authorities on the pretext of combating crime.
We've reached the Duterte stage of American collapse
September 4, 2025 at 8:23 PM
We've reached the Duterte stage of American collapse
Let's make this ticket happen.
August 28, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Let's make this ticket happen.
American media failing to meet the moment, example #7,894. The problems are the arbitrary detention, the torture, the disappearances, the lawlessness - not the juvenile names.
August 26, 2025 at 9:11 PM
American media failing to meet the moment, example #7,894. The problems are the arbitrary detention, the torture, the disappearances, the lawlessness - not the juvenile names.
Is political science going to need a new framework for understanding transnational judicial resistance to executive aggrandizement?
August 18, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Is political science going to need a new framework for understanding transnational judicial resistance to executive aggrandizement?