when the right gets angry all the gop guys are like "you should be angry. at minorities, which is why we will arrest them all for you and murder some when we get bored"

when left gets angry at this the dnc goes "yeah but the thugs you're mad at want you to be mad, so calm down." gee thanks asshole

Trump is not omnipotent. He exists within a web of institutions. His authority is not unlimited. It appears that way largely because his allies occupy key places — Congress — that could provide a meaningful check. Important to understand his actual reach and the limits of that reach. (14/14)

I think it is important and worthwhile to prepare for all of those possibilities. But I do not think it is worthwhile to focus on those places where he neither has the literal capability nor formal or informal authority to act. (12/?)

He has informal power, but even actors inclined to listen have balanced his demands against their self-interests, see his failed push to gerrymander Republicans into a House majority. (9/?)

When we look at what he might do with the midterms, it is useful to keep these distinctions in mind. Trump has essentially no ability to exercise direct authority on federal elections. He cannot even pressure states into giving him voting rolls. (8/?)

What we are seeing now, at home and abroad, is his attempt to inflict as much pain as possible in those areas where he has close to total freedom of action: immigration enforcement and foreign policy. But even there, there are limits — practical, operational and logistical constraints. (7/?)

He failed. Kilmar Abrego Garcia is home. The National Guard deployments were halted. Some institutions bent the knee, many others did not. Courts have forced him to reinstate fired workers. Congress has restored some cut funding. (6/?)

Where Trump has direct authority, he has been able to exercise it in dangerous and authoritarian ways (ICE and CBP). Where Trump must rely on informal coercion, he is less successful, especially if/when those institutions resist. (4/?)

But there are places where Trump, as president, has relatively limited freedom of action and where the main points of opposition have been robust. Where states can contest his actions (National Guard deployments), he falls short. Where courts must litigate his decisions, he also falls short. (3/?)

the majority of continuing members of the senate — meaning those who will not need to be sworn in — will be democrats

Nearly every toss-up election this cycle is in a state controlled by a Democratic governor and a Democratic Secretary of State or their equivalent. So who is going to refuse to certify?

if i want water from the sink, i have to turn on the faucet. if i want to ride my bike, i have to pedal and engage the gears. there is a mechanism. my point is that there is no *mechanism* by which elections can be canceled. it's not about norms, it is about how things work.

you can't actually suppress away a wave of discontent. (relatedly, i think a lot of you have no idea how large this country is and how small its various military and security forces are relative to its population)

ICE can't even deal with irate middle-aged midwesterners. how does he occupy hundreds, if not thousands, of polling cites and precincts? trump v. illinois clarified that he has no legal authority to unilaterally commandeer national guards, how does he move forward from there?

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