Jarmo Kikstra
@kikstra.bsky.social
Research scholar at IIASA. Imperial College London. Lead Author IPCC AR7 WG3. Climate, energy, economics, decent living standards, and justice.
P.S. if I split out 'progressive/left' and call D66 and Volt 'progressive centre' then we find this picture
October 31, 2025 at 9:19 AM
P.S. if I split out 'progressive/left' and call D66 and Volt 'progressive centre' then we find this picture
Minor update in morning estimate
October 30, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Minor update in morning estimate
I'm assuming Ipsos just shares the data directly with NOS, not anything else. The NOS website reads "© NOS. Bron: IPSOS, in opdracht van NOS en RTL"
October 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
I'm assuming Ipsos just shares the data directly with NOS, not anything else. The NOS website reads "© NOS. Bron: IPSOS, in opdracht van NOS en RTL"
Dutch general elections happened today.
First exit poll is here.
Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!
Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...
First exit poll is here.
Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!
Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...
October 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Dutch general elections happened today.
First exit poll is here.
Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!
Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...
First exit poll is here.
Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!
Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...
So, feel free to connect/reach out with anything you feel may be helpful research and suggestions!
Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.
All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.
All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
August 15, 2025 at 3:23 PM
So, feel free to connect/reach out with anything you feel may be helpful research and suggestions!
Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.
All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.
All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report!
Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.
Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.
Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
August 15, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report!
Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.
Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.
Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
Our study provides a new way to look at inequality and the ability to provide Decent Living Standards (DLS) in climate mitigation scenarios.
We can think about three levers:
(1) *Increasing services*
(2) *Reducing inequality*
(3) *Improving efficiency*
We can think about three levers:
(1) *Increasing services*
(2) *Reducing inequality*
(3) *Improving efficiency*
May 14, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Our study provides a new way to look at inequality and the ability to provide Decent Living Standards (DLS) in climate mitigation scenarios.
We can think about three levers:
(1) *Increasing services*
(2) *Reducing inequality*
(3) *Improving efficiency*
We can think about three levers:
(1) *Increasing services*
(2) *Reducing inequality*
(3) *Improving efficiency*
EGU25 CMIP Forcings session (anthro + natural).
Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!)
Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
Submit anything that deals with:
- responses to forcing changes;
- uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases
Please circulate!
...
Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!)
Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
Submit anything that deals with:
- responses to forcing changes;
- uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases
Please circulate!
...
December 16, 2024 at 9:59 AM
EGU25 CMIP Forcings session (anthro + natural).
Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!)
Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
Submit anything that deals with:
- responses to forcing changes;
- uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases
Please circulate!
...
Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!)
Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
Submit anything that deals with:
- responses to forcing changes;
- uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases
Please circulate!
...
To round off: what is new?
- Exploring meeting a wide range of mitigation targets (using non-monotonic utility function - see figure)
- Identifying the energy supply system benefits
- Linking to poverty and justice
- Highlighting effects on decoupling and feasibility
- Exploring meeting a wide range of mitigation targets (using non-monotonic utility function - see figure)
- Identifying the energy supply system benefits
- Linking to poverty and justice
- Highlighting effects on decoupling and feasibility
April 2, 2024 at 7:46 PM
To round off: what is new?
- Exploring meeting a wide range of mitigation targets (using non-monotonic utility function - see figure)
- Identifying the energy supply system benefits
- Linking to poverty and justice
- Highlighting effects on decoupling and feasibility
- Exploring meeting a wide range of mitigation targets (using non-monotonic utility function - see figure)
- Identifying the energy supply system benefits
- Linking to poverty and justice
- Highlighting effects on decoupling and feasibility
We group the policies into 5 broad groups, list instruments, and discuss what additional modelling work is required to reflect these policies adequately.
It’s a big list!
A long list of policies, and a long list of accompanying model extensions.
It’s a big list!
A long list of policies, and a long list of accompanying model extensions.
April 2, 2024 at 7:44 PM
We group the policies into 5 broad groups, list instruments, and discuss what additional modelling work is required to reflect these policies adequately.
It’s a big list!
A long list of policies, and a long list of accompanying model extensions.
It’s a big list!
A long list of policies, and a long list of accompanying model extensions.
Decoupling first.
It’s different whether talking emissions or energy.
GHG: absolute decoupling happens in all cases (required to meet climate targets)
Energy (final): 2020-2030 decoupling speed is reduced, but not for 2030-2050
Materials would be different again.
It’s different whether talking emissions or energy.
GHG: absolute decoupling happens in all cases (required to meet climate targets)
Energy (final): 2020-2030 decoupling speed is reduced, but not for 2030-2050
Materials would be different again.
April 2, 2024 at 7:43 PM
Decoupling first.
It’s different whether talking emissions or energy.
GHG: absolute decoupling happens in all cases (required to meet climate targets)
Energy (final): 2020-2030 decoupling speed is reduced, but not for 2030-2050
Materials would be different again.
It’s different whether talking emissions or energy.
GHG: absolute decoupling happens in all cases (required to meet climate targets)
Energy (final): 2020-2030 decoupling speed is reduced, but not for 2030-2050
Materials would be different again.
What are the reasons for modelling degrowth, and why hasn’t it been done before?
For some it is about justice: faster emissions reductions in rich countries.
Feasibility + sustainability: reducing technology upscaling (CDR, renewables) and decoupling rates.
For some it is about justice: faster emissions reductions in rich countries.
Feasibility + sustainability: reducing technology upscaling (CDR, renewables) and decoupling rates.
April 2, 2024 at 7:43 PM
What are the reasons for modelling degrowth, and why hasn’t it been done before?
For some it is about justice: faster emissions reductions in rich countries.
Feasibility + sustainability: reducing technology upscaling (CDR, renewables) and decoupling rates.
For some it is about justice: faster emissions reductions in rich countries.
Feasibility + sustainability: reducing technology upscaling (CDR, renewables) and decoupling rates.
But how fast can one really reduce energy demand? What is feasible?
Not so easy to say, but scenarios with combined energy efficiency and demand reductions beyond the “40k” scenario come with higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns (if not implementing enabling polices).
Not so easy to say, but scenarios with combined energy efficiency and demand reductions beyond the “40k” scenario come with higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns (if not implementing enabling polices).
April 2, 2024 at 7:42 PM
But how fast can one really reduce energy demand? What is feasible?
Not so easy to say, but scenarios with combined energy efficiency and demand reductions beyond the “40k” scenario come with higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns (if not implementing enabling polices).
Not so easy to say, but scenarios with combined energy efficiency and demand reductions beyond the “40k” scenario come with higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns (if not implementing enabling polices).
Our scenarios (51 in total) cover quite a different GDP growth space than the scenarios in the IPCC report.
But in terms of emissions, they cover the most ambitious range (and sometimes even go faster, but this is really pushing the model).
But in terms of emissions, they cover the most ambitious range (and sometimes even go faster, but this is really pushing the model).
April 2, 2024 at 7:42 PM
Our scenarios (51 in total) cover quite a different GDP growth space than the scenarios in the IPCC report.
But in terms of emissions, they cover the most ambitious range (and sometimes even go faster, but this is really pushing the model).
But in terms of emissions, they cover the most ambitious range (and sometimes even go faster, but this is really pushing the model).
Lower future demand means lower pressure on the energy system. This means lower energy prices.
April 2, 2024 at 7:41 PM
Lower future demand means lower pressure on the energy system. This means lower energy prices.
In a just transition, at minimum, Decent Living Standards should be provided for everyone.
For that, you need enough energy.
We check this for all scenarios, with (“gini.2p.a”) and without (“constant.gini”) inequality reduction.
For that, you need enough energy.
We check this for all scenarios, with (“gini.2p.a”) and without (“constant.gini”) inequality reduction.
April 2, 2024 at 7:41 PM
In a just transition, at minimum, Decent Living Standards should be provided for everyone.
For that, you need enough energy.
We check this for all scenarios, with (“gini.2p.a”) and without (“constant.gini”) inequality reduction.
For that, you need enough energy.
We check this for all scenarios, with (“gini.2p.a”) and without (“constant.gini”) inequality reduction.
So would the Australians need to go “back to the caves”? Certainly not.
Above, I was highlighting a variant with consumption per capita at slightly higher levels than currently in Australia (the “40k” variant) - which leads to roughly constant GDP per capita in our model.
Above, I was highlighting a variant with consumption per capita at slightly higher levels than currently in Australia (the “40k” variant) - which leads to roughly constant GDP per capita in our model.
April 2, 2024 at 7:40 PM
So would the Australians need to go “back to the caves”? Certainly not.
Above, I was highlighting a variant with consumption per capita at slightly higher levels than currently in Australia (the “40k” variant) - which leads to roughly constant GDP per capita in our model.
Above, I was highlighting a variant with consumption per capita at slightly higher levels than currently in Australia (the “40k” variant) - which leads to roughly constant GDP per capita in our model.
Note, this is all for Australia, with a 4Gt CO2eq GHG budget.
We pair these consumption pathways with some “standard” climate policy scenarios, changing the energy system.
We compare a “standard growth” scenario (see figure) to variants with lower growth.
We pair these consumption pathways with some “standard” climate policy scenarios, changing the energy system.
We compare a “standard growth” scenario (see figure) to variants with lower growth.
April 2, 2024 at 7:39 PM
Note, this is all for Australia, with a 4Gt CO2eq GHG budget.
We pair these consumption pathways with some “standard” climate policy scenarios, changing the energy system.
We compare a “standard growth” scenario (see figure) to variants with lower growth.
We pair these consumption pathways with some “standard” climate policy scenarios, changing the energy system.
We compare a “standard growth” scenario (see figure) to variants with lower growth.
Compared to the most ambitious (C1) scenarios in the IPCC report, we see:
- Faster reduction in fossil fuels than almost all IPCC scenarios
- Still fast, but relatively low upscaling of wind and solar
- Much reduced dependency on biomass for energy
- Faster reduction in fossil fuels than almost all IPCC scenarios
- Still fast, but relatively low upscaling of wind and solar
- Much reduced dependency on biomass for energy
April 2, 2024 at 7:38 PM
Compared to the most ambitious (C1) scenarios in the IPCC report, we see:
- Faster reduction in fossil fuels than almost all IPCC scenarios
- Still fast, but relatively low upscaling of wind and solar
- Much reduced dependency on biomass for energy
- Faster reduction in fossil fuels than almost all IPCC scenarios
- Still fast, but relatively low upscaling of wind and solar
- Much reduced dependency on biomass for energy
First, some headlines.
While meeting very ambitious targets, stopping economic growth could:
- help limit solar and wind growth by about 40% around 2050 (but still increase 4-fold by 2030!)
- limit long-term material needs
- strongly reduce reliance on bioenergy
While meeting very ambitious targets, stopping economic growth could:
- help limit solar and wind growth by about 40% around 2050 (but still increase 4-fold by 2030!)
- limit long-term material needs
- strongly reduce reliance on bioenergy
April 2, 2024 at 7:38 PM
First, some headlines.
While meeting very ambitious targets, stopping economic growth could:
- help limit solar and wind growth by about 40% around 2050 (but still increase 4-fold by 2030!)
- limit long-term material needs
- strongly reduce reliance on bioenergy
While meeting very ambitious targets, stopping economic growth could:
- help limit solar and wind growth by about 40% around 2050 (but still increase 4-fold by 2030!)
- limit long-term material needs
- strongly reduce reliance on bioenergy
Here's one in the style of @andyreisinger.bsky.social's first plot too.
February 20, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Here's one in the style of @andyreisinger.bsky.social's first plot too.
Here's a four variants, along with the one (R10 grouping) I assume you used, one OECD based, and two World Bank income grouping based ones.
February 20, 2024 at 8:48 PM
Here's a four variants, along with the one (R10 grouping) I assume you used, one OECD based, and two World Bank income grouping based ones.
FYI - acknowledging it won't affect the core SSP economics - we've been working on sustainable development pathways that push equity more (branching off from SSP1).
The GDP & inequality projections paper is now in review, preprint here: dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG....
The GDP & inequality projections paper is now in review, preprint here: dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG....
February 14, 2024 at 3:42 PM
FYI - acknowledging it won't affect the core SSP economics - we've been working on sustainable development pathways that push equity more (branching off from SSP1).
The GDP & inequality projections paper is now in review, preprint here: dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG....
The GDP & inequality projections paper is now in review, preprint here: dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG....
What is just? How do we talk about (the multitude of) justice aspects in scenarios?
At 18.45 our (poster by Kian Mintz-Woo) online IAMC presentation starts!
We'll propose a new way to consistently talk about this, to better understand justice considerations in IAM scenarios.
At 18.45 our (poster by Kian Mintz-Woo) online IAMC presentation starts!
We'll propose a new way to consistently talk about this, to better understand justice considerations in IAM scenarios.
November 15, 2023 at 5:01 PM
What is just? How do we talk about (the multitude of) justice aspects in scenarios?
At 18.45 our (poster by Kian Mintz-Woo) online IAMC presentation starts!
We'll propose a new way to consistently talk about this, to better understand justice considerations in IAM scenarios.
At 18.45 our (poster by Kian Mintz-Woo) online IAMC presentation starts!
We'll propose a new way to consistently talk about this, to better understand justice considerations in IAM scenarios.
Presenting a poster tomorrow to the IAM community on what it takes to model degrowth in integrated assessment models, and what is already possible in MESSAGEix!
So for those at IAMC, come find me during the session!
For others, scan the QR code or text me if interested :).
So for those at IAMC, come find me during the session!
For others, scan the QR code or text me if interested :).
November 13, 2023 at 10:56 PM
Presenting a poster tomorrow to the IAM community on what it takes to model degrowth in integrated assessment models, and what is already possible in MESSAGEix!
So for those at IAMC, come find me during the session!
For others, scan the QR code or text me if interested :).
So for those at IAMC, come find me during the session!
For others, scan the QR code or text me if interested :).