János Kele
@kelejanos.bsky.social
economist | data enthusiast | football expert and podcast host at 24.hu
How Hungary lost — and might revive — its football soul.⚽
A thread.
A thread.
October 10, 2025 at 1:50 PM
How Hungary lost — and might revive — its football soul.⚽
A thread.
A thread.
Reposted by János Kele
The wheeler-dealer approach to transfer strategy does not work - less is more when it comes to acquiring talent (analysis/story via @jnorthcroft.bsky.social for @thetimes.com)
www.thetimes.com/sport/footba...
www.thetimes.com/sport/footba...
Fans beware: Half your club’s transfers will fail
Former Liverpool stats guru Ian Graham’s research – and success at Anfield – suggests wheeler-dealer approach does not work and less is more when it comes to buying talent
www.thetimes.com
May 31, 2025 at 9:19 PM
The wheeler-dealer approach to transfer strategy does not work - less is more when it comes to acquiring talent (analysis/story via @jnorthcroft.bsky.social for @thetimes.com)
www.thetimes.com/sport/footba...
www.thetimes.com/sport/footba...
Reposted by János Kele
Have you ever questioned whether Transfermarkt's player values are nonsense?
Well, I took a look at Transfermarkt's squad values (derived from their player values) to determine whether they are a valid proxy for squad spending. They are pretty good!
paulrjohnson.net/blog/testing...
Well, I took a look at Transfermarkt's squad values (derived from their player values) to determine whether they are a valid proxy for squad spending. They are pretty good!
paulrjohnson.net/blog/testing...
Testing Transfermarkt’s Squad Market Values – Paul Johnson
Get in losers, we’re going validating.
paulrjohnson.net
May 12, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Have you ever questioned whether Transfermarkt's player values are nonsense?
Well, I took a look at Transfermarkt's squad values (derived from their player values) to determine whether they are a valid proxy for squad spending. They are pretty good!
paulrjohnson.net/blog/testing...
Well, I took a look at Transfermarkt's squad values (derived from their player values) to determine whether they are a valid proxy for squad spending. They are pretty good!
paulrjohnson.net/blog/testing...
Hungary’s football federation (MLSZ) is doubling down on its youth policy: from 2026, clubs will only receive full funding if 5 Hungarians – including 1 U21 player – are on the pitch on average.
Sounds bold? Let’s check the numbers. 🧵
Sounds bold? Let’s check the numbers. 🧵
May 12, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Hungary’s football federation (MLSZ) is doubling down on its youth policy: from 2026, clubs will only receive full funding if 5 Hungarians – including 1 U21 player – are on the pitch on average.
Sounds bold? Let’s check the numbers. 🧵
Sounds bold? Let’s check the numbers. 🧵
Reposted by János Kele
#Arsenal are just the 4th side to eliminate Real Madrid from a 2 legged European Cup/Champions League knockout tie by an aggregate margin of 4+ goals:
◎ 1988-89 SF (1-6 v Milan)
◎ 2008-09 Last 16 (0-5 v Liverpool)
◎ 2022-23 SF (1-5 v Man City)
◉ 2024-25 QF (1-5 v Arsenal)
◎ 1988-89 SF (1-6 v Milan)
◎ 2008-09 Last 16 (0-5 v Liverpool)
◎ 2022-23 SF (1-5 v Man City)
◉ 2024-25 QF (1-5 v Arsenal)
April 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM
#Arsenal are just the 4th side to eliminate Real Madrid from a 2 legged European Cup/Champions League knockout tie by an aggregate margin of 4+ goals:
◎ 1988-89 SF (1-6 v Milan)
◎ 2008-09 Last 16 (0-5 v Liverpool)
◎ 2022-23 SF (1-5 v Man City)
◉ 2024-25 QF (1-5 v Arsenal)
◎ 1988-89 SF (1-6 v Milan)
◎ 2008-09 Last 16 (0-5 v Liverpool)
◎ 2022-23 SF (1-5 v Man City)
◉ 2024-25 QF (1-5 v Arsenal)
Reposted by János Kele
Arsenal are first team ever to win each of their first two games against Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabéu in all competitions.
April 17, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Arsenal are first team ever to win each of their first two games against Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabéu in all competitions.
Reposted by János Kele
www.playthegame.org/news/footbal...
No holding back in this piece!
I think most football investments are terrible deals that are bound to fail.
No holding back in this piece!
I think most football investments are terrible deals that are bound to fail.
Football’s MCO crisis: How investors are changing the game
Multi-club ownership is not necessarily about football. Wealthy individuals and investment firms are buying clubs for business leverage, financial speculation, or elite networking.
www.playthegame.org
April 17, 2025 at 6:40 AM
www.playthegame.org/news/footbal...
No holding back in this piece!
I think most football investments are terrible deals that are bound to fail.
No holding back in this piece!
I think most football investments are terrible deals that are bound to fail.
Reposted by János Kele
my first time at San Siro last night. Really enjoyed watching this Inter side: old-school yet innovative, solid yet fluid. They’re very different from the other three sides left in the competition and that might help them.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
Inzaghi’s Inter are Champions League contenders who ally old-school quality with progression
The Italian side will start their semi-final as underdogs but, having seen off Bayern, their unique approach can unsettle Barcelona
www.nytimes.com
April 17, 2025 at 6:43 AM
my first time at San Siro last night. Really enjoyed watching this Inter side: old-school yet innovative, solid yet fluid. They’re very different from the other three sides left in the competition and that might help them.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
Reposted by János Kele
In renewing its Rwanda sponsorship, Paris Saint Germain just signalled to the world that it doesn't a give a fig about what's happening in Congo. The sheer cynicism of sports organisations whenever money is involved is always impressive. en.psg.fr/teams/club/c...
Paris Saint-Germain and Visit Rwanda renew groundbreaking partnership through 2028
en.psg.fr
April 17, 2025 at 7:20 AM
In renewing its Rwanda sponsorship, Paris Saint Germain just signalled to the world that it doesn't a give a fig about what's happening in Congo. The sheer cynicism of sports organisations whenever money is involved is always impressive. en.psg.fr/teams/club/c...
Reposted by János Kele
NEW: The case for goalkeepers playing even more aggressively in possession and maybe even putting an outfield player in goal when you're desperate to score.
likeanewsletter.substack.com/p/should-out...
likeanewsletter.substack.com/p/should-out...
Should outfield players play in goal?
Football's use of goalkeepers, and perhaps substitutes, is still too conservative. Hear me out ...
likeanewsletter.substack.com
April 15, 2025 at 5:14 PM
NEW: The case for goalkeepers playing even more aggressively in possession and maybe even putting an outfield player in goal when you're desperate to score.
likeanewsletter.substack.com/p/should-out...
likeanewsletter.substack.com/p/should-out...
Reposted by János Kele
New on my blog: Pi Ratings — a football-first alternative to Elo.
✅ Handles draws
✅ Uses score margins
✅ Beats Elo on predictions
Includes code, benchmarks & more:
👉 pena.lt/y/2025/04/14...
✅ Handles draws
✅ Uses score margins
✅ Beats Elo on predictions
Includes code, benchmarks & more:
👉 pena.lt/y/2025/04/14...
Pi Ratings: The Smarter Way to Rank Football Teams
A smarter, football-focused alternative to Elo — using Pi Ratings to track team strength and predict matches...
pena.lt
April 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
New on my blog: Pi Ratings — a football-first alternative to Elo.
✅ Handles draws
✅ Uses score margins
✅ Beats Elo on predictions
Includes code, benchmarks & more:
👉 pena.lt/y/2025/04/14...
✅ Handles draws
✅ Uses score margins
✅ Beats Elo on predictions
Includes code, benchmarks & more:
👉 pena.lt/y/2025/04/14...
Reposted by János Kele
Ousmane dembele: the best! The worst! Or maybe somewhere in between…
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
Ousmane Dembélé is finally emerging as the star after years as a football piñata | Barney Ronay
PSG forward is among the world’s best players right now after years of being unfairly weighed down by narrative
www.theguardian.com
February 15, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Ousmane dembele: the best! The worst! Or maybe somewhere in between…
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
Reposted by János Kele
A reflection on my discovery of data visualization as an artistic medium + some fun graphics I put together.
open.substack.com/pub/statesid...
open.substack.com/pub/statesid...
In Defense of Beauty
An unsolicited opinion on unequal aspect ratios
open.substack.com
February 17, 2025 at 4:21 PM
A reflection on my discovery of data visualization as an artistic medium + some fun graphics I put together.
open.substack.com/pub/statesid...
open.substack.com/pub/statesid...
🚀 High-speed Europe, single-speed Hungarian football 🇭🇺⚽ While Hungarian football leaders celebrate local progress, the rest of Europe is sprinting ahead. A painful 0-3 loss in Plzen proves that Fradi is still dreaming of the next level. A thread:
February 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
🚀 High-speed Europe, single-speed Hungarian football 🇭🇺⚽ While Hungarian football leaders celebrate local progress, the rest of Europe is sprinting ahead. A painful 0-3 loss in Plzen proves that Fradi is still dreaming of the next level. A thread:
Reposted by János Kele
The look of tiredness on the faces of the players has left me uninspired for many weeks. The opponent we face each week is not the other team; it is the schedule and those who make it. Do we want to make football a game of sacrifices?
tacticsjournal.com/2025/01/30/i...
tacticsjournal.com/2025/01/30/i...
Injuries are an excuse now
The look of tiredness in the faces of the players has left me uninspired for many weeks. The opponent we face each week is not the other team; it is the schedule and those who make it. Do we want to m...
tacticsjournal.com
January 30, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The look of tiredness on the faces of the players has left me uninspired for many weeks. The opponent we face each week is not the other team; it is the schedule and those who make it. Do we want to make football a game of sacrifices?
tacticsjournal.com/2025/01/30/i...
tacticsjournal.com/2025/01/30/i...
Reposted by János Kele
Dearly beloved. We are gathered here this Monday afternoon to notice something from the weekend's football.
And oh me oh my... today we're actually talking about Manchester City! Because I noticed how important Josko Gvardiol was to City's win against Chelsea [thread]
And oh me oh my... today we're actually talking about Manchester City! Because I noticed how important Josko Gvardiol was to City's win against Chelsea [thread]
January 27, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Dearly beloved. We are gathered here this Monday afternoon to notice something from the weekend's football.
And oh me oh my... today we're actually talking about Manchester City! Because I noticed how important Josko Gvardiol was to City's win against Chelsea [thread]
And oh me oh my... today we're actually talking about Manchester City! Because I noticed how important Josko Gvardiol was to City's win against Chelsea [thread]
Reposted by János Kele
this is mostly not a football story -- Roman was an inveterate criminal and he did crimes to evade taxes and he also owned Chelsea and some dirty money flowed there
but of course it is an issue that football remains such a congenial place for international criminals www.bbc.com/news/article...
but of course it is an issue that football remains such a congenial place for international criminals www.bbc.com/news/article...
January 29, 2025 at 3:44 PM
this is mostly not a football story -- Roman was an inveterate criminal and he did crimes to evade taxes and he also owned Chelsea and some dirty money flowed there
but of course it is an issue that football remains such a congenial place for international criminals www.bbc.com/news/article...
but of course it is an issue that football remains such a congenial place for international criminals www.bbc.com/news/article...
Some back-and-forth later, Tamás Nikitscher has signed with La Liga side Valladolid —marking the first time EVER that a Hungarian player has a valid first-team contract in all five top European leagues. A historic moment for Hungarian football! 🧵👇
January 29, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Some back-and-forth later, Tamás Nikitscher has signed with La Liga side Valladolid —marking the first time EVER that a Hungarian player has a valid first-team contract in all five top European leagues. A historic moment for Hungarian football! 🧵👇
Reposted by János Kele
There is a belief in Silicon Valley that the billions spent on AI make its success inevitable—as though VCs are willing an automated world into existence because it is manifest destiny.
Get ready for AI everywhere all at once, whether you want it or not.
www.inc.com/sam-blum/and...
Get ready for AI everywhere all at once, whether you want it or not.
www.inc.com/sam-blum/and...
Andreessen Horowitz Wants to Shoehorn AI Into Everything in 2025. Whether You Want It or Not.
Waves of hype have been unleashed on the public since ChatGPT’s unveiling in 2022. And investors have no intention of slowing down.
www.inc.com
January 9, 2025 at 8:27 PM
There is a belief in Silicon Valley that the billions spent on AI make its success inevitable—as though VCs are willing an automated world into existence because it is manifest destiny.
Get ready for AI everywhere all at once, whether you want it or not.
www.inc.com/sam-blum/and...
Get ready for AI everywhere all at once, whether you want it or not.
www.inc.com/sam-blum/and...
Reposted by János Kele
Words for @fotmob.com on why Dean Huijsen is the signing of the season. www.fotmob.com/topnews/1779...
FotMob Profile: Dean Huijsen is the bargain buy of the season
Premier League clubs spent over £2bn during the summer transfer window. A lot of big moves occurred and a number of teams were prematurely crowned winners of the window.
www.fotmob.com
January 9, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Words for @fotmob.com on why Dean Huijsen is the signing of the season. www.fotmob.com/topnews/1779...
Reposted by János Kele
There is no uniform explanation for the surge of young players featuring in La Liga, but it’s a good thing (analysis via @jamiemkemp.bsky.social for @optaanalyst.optajoe.com)
theanalyst.com/eu/2025/01/l...
theanalyst.com/eu/2025/01/l...
La Liga Gets Younger, Spain Gets Stronger: Spanish Football's Homegrown Youth Revolution Explained | Opta Analyst
Spanish football is back on top. The bad news for others is that their resources and capacity for staying power are looking as plentiful as ever.
theanalyst.com
January 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM
There is no uniform explanation for the surge of young players featuring in La Liga, but it’s a good thing (analysis via @jamiemkemp.bsky.social for @optaanalyst.optajoe.com)
theanalyst.com/eu/2025/01/l...
theanalyst.com/eu/2025/01/l...
Reposted by János Kele
Not all xG is created equal.
Hudl Statsbomb's xG model includes:
▪️ the precise position of the goalkeeper
▪️ the precise position of the surrounding defenders and attackers
▪️ the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck
In every match across 140+ competitions 🔽
youtu.be/P-0sIh66ekE
Hudl Statsbomb's xG model includes:
▪️ the precise position of the goalkeeper
▪️ the precise position of the surrounding defenders and attackers
▪️ the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck
In every match across 140+ competitions 🔽
youtu.be/P-0sIh66ekE
What is xG? Hudl Statsbomb's expected goals model explained
YouTube video by Hudl Statsbomb
youtu.be
January 8, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Not all xG is created equal.
Hudl Statsbomb's xG model includes:
▪️ the precise position of the goalkeeper
▪️ the precise position of the surrounding defenders and attackers
▪️ the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck
In every match across 140+ competitions 🔽
youtu.be/P-0sIh66ekE
Hudl Statsbomb's xG model includes:
▪️ the precise position of the goalkeeper
▪️ the precise position of the surrounding defenders and attackers
▪️ the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck
In every match across 140+ competitions 🔽
youtu.be/P-0sIh66ekE