Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
November 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
November 5, 2025 at 12:30 PM
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
November 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
November 3, 2025 at 1:26 PM
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
November 3, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...
October 18, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...
Bitcoin has been acting as neither a proxy for abundant financial liquidity, nor a store of value (see GLD), nor as a safe haven.
October 15, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Bitcoin has been acting as neither a proxy for abundant financial liquidity, nor a store of value (see GLD), nor as a safe haven.
After Powell speech:
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
October 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
After Powell speech:
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
Absolute classic FT headline....the dumb money that is up about 50% in two and a half years is the problem here!!
October 14, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Absolute classic FT headline....the dumb money that is up about 50% in two and a half years is the problem here!!
I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.
October 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.
Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.
October 10, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.
Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.
October 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.
From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.
October 10, 2025 at 11:21 AM
From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.
International developed stocks crushed the US to start the year to the S&P April low, but since then the US and its AI hype have steadily out-performed rest of developed world.
After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US
After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US
October 8, 2025 at 8:00 PM
International developed stocks crushed the US to start the year to the S&P April low, but since then the US and its AI hype have steadily out-performed rest of developed world.
After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US
After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US
We didn't think financial conditions could get any looser but we were wrong. We now have loose financial conditions, a massive and growing fiscal deficit, rate cuts going into rising inflation, and hundreds of billions being thrown at data centers. Why wouldn't there be a bubble forming??
October 8, 2025 at 2:00 PM
We didn't think financial conditions could get any looser but we were wrong. We now have loose financial conditions, a massive and growing fiscal deficit, rate cuts going into rising inflation, and hundreds of billions being thrown at data centers. Why wouldn't there be a bubble forming??
The deficit is exploding despite tariff revenue and performative firings of government workers. We are on a one-way train that is accelerating into the tunnel.
October 7, 2025 at 8:44 PM
The deficit is exploding despite tariff revenue and performative firings of government workers. We are on a one-way train that is accelerating into the tunnel.
The US is losing its self-sufficiency in food, rapidly.
October 6, 2025 at 12:26 PM
The US is losing its self-sufficiency in food, rapidly.
The probability of two rate cuts by December meeting have gone from low 20s to low 40s percent--in a week.
Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.
Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.
October 3, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The probability of two rate cuts by December meeting have gone from low 20s to low 40s percent--in a week.
Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.
Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.
A quote from James Anderson, a very successful tech investor in Europe, in today's FT. Hard to argue with this directionally....
October 1, 2025 at 12:16 PM
A quote from James Anderson, a very successful tech investor in Europe, in today's FT. Hard to argue with this directionally....