Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
The California Campaign to Introduce a First-of-Its-Kind Billionaire’s Tax
The union-backed ballot measure is aimed at raising healthcare funding, but it faces opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:03 AM
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
Elliott seeks to reassure investors as long-term returns fall behind S&P 500
Performance has lagged at Paul Singer’s hedge fund amid concerns that large size is barrier to strong returns
on.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
If the Fed starts taking the massive wealth disparity into account as the lower 80% of the country struggles, and cuts rates because of it--who benefits the most? The upper 20% of course, who can take advantage of the financialization of everything.
Must be addressed politically
Must be addressed politically
Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns
John Williams suggests poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates next month
on.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:24 PM
If the Fed starts taking the massive wealth disparity into account as the lower 80% of the country struggles, and cuts rates because of it--who benefits the most? The upper 20% of course, who can take advantage of the financialization of everything.
Must be addressed politically
Must be addressed politically
Great data on something we all intuitively know by now: Media and tech wants to stoke our anger and division for eyeballs, because it works.
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the west
New research shows how incentives in the modern media ecosystem help explain rising division and negativity
on.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Great data on something we all intuitively know by now: Media and tech wants to stoke our anger and division for eyeballs, because it works.
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
November 5, 2025 at 12:30 PM
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
Down about 5% pre-market. Another good earnings, bad market reaction story--very telling for what the market is thinking about valuations
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
AMD Reports Sharply Higher Profits, Sales
The chip maker reported steep gains in both profit and sales for the third quarter as it moved deeper into AI data centers and increased sales of personal computer processors.
www.wsj.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Down about 5% pre-market. Another good earnings, bad market reaction story--very telling for what the market is thinking about valuations
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
November 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
November 3, 2025 at 1:26 PM
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
November 3, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
The WSJ, of all places, doing some nice reporting on the scale of Trump administration corruption, presumably while the op-ed guys squirm and prepare to write about Hunter Biden's laptop...
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Binance Boosted Trump Family’s Crypto Company Ahead of Pardon for Its Billionaire Founder
The giant crypto exchange facilitated a $2 billion purchase of World Liberty’s stablecoin and built its technology. The clemency for Changpeng Zhao—the tycoon known as CZ—surprised some in the adminis...
www.wsj.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:10 AM
The WSJ, of all places, doing some nice reporting on the scale of Trump administration corruption, presumably while the op-ed guys squirm and prepare to write about Hunter Biden's laptop...
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
So you're telling me the guy running the business into the ground might leave if we don't give him a $1T pay deal??
In a rational world, that shouldn't be a tough call!!!
In a rational world, that shouldn't be a tough call!!!
Tesla chair warns Musk could quit if shareholders reject $1tn pay deal
Robyn Denholm urges investors to support billionaire chief’s package ahead of crucial November 6 vote
on.ft.com
October 28, 2025 at 11:45 AM
So you're telling me the guy running the business into the ground might leave if we don't give him a $1T pay deal??
In a rational world, that shouldn't be a tough call!!!
In a rational world, that shouldn't be a tough call!!!
Sending an aircraft carrier to patrol for small boats is insane waste of resources, unless we are about to start bombing Venezuela, completely unprovoked.
Trump Administration Live Updates: Hegseth Orders Warships and Planes to Latin America, a Major Escalation www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: Hegseth Orders Warships and Planes to Latin America, a Major Escalation www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: Hegseth Orders Warships and Planes to Latin America, a Major Escalation
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Sending an aircraft carrier to patrol for small boats is insane waste of resources, unless we are about to start bombing Venezuela, completely unprovoked.
Trump Administration Live Updates: Hegseth Orders Warships and Planes to Latin America, a Major Escalation www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: Hegseth Orders Warships and Planes to Latin America, a Major Escalation www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
I don’t care how deep into the cult you are, this should be shocking and, for most Americans, heartbreaking.
Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing
www.nytimes.com
October 22, 2025 at 9:04 PM
I don’t care how deep into the cult you are, this should be shocking and, for most Americans, heartbreaking.
Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
I guess the crypto grifts are just too complicated; simpler to demand Justice just write checks to him for all of the past injustices he has had to endure…
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases
www.nytimes.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
I guess the crypto grifts are just too complicated; simpler to demand Justice just write checks to him for all of the past injustices he has had to endure…
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Bessent is going to "buy low and sell high" with $40B of your tax dollars in Argentina....for anyone who has followed Argentina, the peso buys are working out as expected, and betting in front of Argentine elections is a fool's game. Poor hedge fund risk management, Scottie...
Argentine peso weakens to fresh low despite US interventions
Washington’s $400mn of support fails to halt currency’s slide ahead of the Latin American country’s midterm elections
on.ft.com
October 21, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Bessent is going to "buy low and sell high" with $40B of your tax dollars in Argentina....for anyone who has followed Argentina, the peso buys are working out as expected, and betting in front of Argentine elections is a fool's game. Poor hedge fund risk management, Scottie...
This is the difference between a country with a long term plan and a country that constantly changes its policies and now has no real near-term recourse
Where is the lie? on.ft.com/3Wa4oz4 America’s rare earth delusion
America’s rare earth delusion
China’s critical minerals chokepoint has been hiding in plain sight for decades
on.ft.com
October 19, 2025 at 12:56 PM
This is the difference between a country with a long term plan and a country that constantly changes its policies and now has no real near-term recourse
Sound arguments to be wary of the Fed's cutting cycle, with 2 more cuts priced as a 95% probability.
on.ft.com/4ho6o0w
on.ft.com/4ho6o0w
Could central banks ease too much?
Financial crises and their consequences may be harder to arrest today than in the past
on.ft.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Sound arguments to be wary of the Fed's cutting cycle, with 2 more cuts priced as a 95% probability.
on.ft.com/4ho6o0w
on.ft.com/4ho6o0w
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...
October 18, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...