Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
Two Opportunities to Out-Perform.
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
Follow a Foundation Investing
5 Minute read. Market observations and performance.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:46 PM
Two Opportunities to Out-Perform.
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
Reposted by Jim Barrineau
If the Fed is pressured into cutting rates the only rational investor stance is to bet on asset price inflation.
U.S. Economic Growth Surged in Third Quarter of 2025 www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/b...
U.S. Economic Growth Surged in Third Quarter of 2025 www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/b...
U.S. Economic Growth Surged in Third Quarter of 2025
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:52 PM
If the Fed is pressured into cutting rates the only rational investor stance is to bet on asset price inflation.
U.S. Economic Growth Surged in Third Quarter of 2025 www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/b...
U.S. Economic Growth Surged in Third Quarter of 2025 www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/b...
Manufacturing jobs are down by 78,000 since the start of 2025, but I guess the FT had space over the holidays for a Trump fluffer piece from a cabinet member....
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The year of the tariff
American trade policy is geared towards re-industrialisation — and it’s working
giftarticle.ft.com
December 23, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Manufacturing jobs are down by 78,000 since the start of 2025, but I guess the FT had space over the holidays for a Trump fluffer piece from a cabinet member....
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Nice summary of how US policy on AI is shooting itself in the face as China rationally builds out energy to meet AI demand, and Trump stops renewable growth.
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America’s risky bet on hydrocarbons might hurt it in the AI race
US strategy could be costly in terms of higher electricity prices, increased water stress and potential food insecurity
giftarticle.ft.com
December 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Nice summary of how US policy on AI is shooting itself in the face as China rationally builds out energy to meet AI demand, and Trump stops renewable growth.
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The only rational reason for a weird media company--fusion company tie-up is for the fusion company to have access to the Trump administration for favors.
The Trump corruption just continues to spread across the economy.
www.wsj.com/business/dea...
The Trump corruption just continues to spread across the economy.
www.wsj.com/business/dea...
Trump Media to Merge With Fusion Energy Firm in $6 Billion Deal
Shares in the president’s media company jumped premarket after it agreed to a tie-up with TAE Technologies in an all-stock deal.
www.wsj.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The only rational reason for a weird media company--fusion company tie-up is for the fusion company to have access to the Trump administration for favors.
The Trump corruption just continues to spread across the economy.
www.wsj.com/business/dea...
The Trump corruption just continues to spread across the economy.
www.wsj.com/business/dea...
Tech is wobbling, and there are clear alternatives for equity exposure: the US ex-tech as represented here by two specific value strategies, or international investing. The performance gap is starting to widen.
December 16, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Tech is wobbling, and there are clear alternatives for equity exposure: the US ex-tech as represented here by two specific value strategies, or international investing. The performance gap is starting to widen.
Nice summary of the US ceding global economic leadership to China via strategic incoherence.
"The value of China’s cleantech exports in the first seven months of 2025 were double that of America’s fossil fuel exports."
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"The value of China’s cleantech exports in the first seven months of 2025 were double that of America’s fossil fuel exports."
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China’s escalation dominance over Trump
The US president has handed the initiative to Beijing in tech, energy and security
giftarticle.ft.com
December 16, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Nice summary of the US ceding global economic leadership to China via strategic incoherence.
"The value of China’s cleantech exports in the first seven months of 2025 were double that of America’s fossil fuel exports."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
"The value of China’s cleantech exports in the first seven months of 2025 were double that of America’s fossil fuel exports."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
'Twas Debt that Pricked the AI Bubble:
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
Follow a Foundation Investing
5 minute read. Market and portfolio observations.
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 4:22 PM
'Twas Debt that Pricked the AI Bubble:
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
December 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
To position this number of assets in the region for an extended time will likely cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Best case, we temporarily interdict some drug routes that will re-start when Trump loses interest. More likely, regional chaos with high costs.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
U.S. Pours More Firepower Into the Caribbean as Trump Ramps Up Threats
The American leader now has an array of options for Venezuela’s Maduro, including land strikes and electronic warfare.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2025 at 1:04 PM
To position this number of assets in the region for an extended time will likely cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Best case, we temporarily interdict some drug routes that will re-start when Trump loses interest. More likely, regional chaos with high costs.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Big tech's capture of the Trump administration means we all must believe wild spending on AI is essential for the future. If you take away that Silicon Valley trope, policy might look like China: progress on multiple tech & manufacturing fronts.
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Could America win the AI race but lose the war?
The US has gone all-in on artificial intelligence. But the idea of an end-of-times battle with China over tomorrow’s key technology is part delusion, part lobbying tool for Silicon Valley
giftarticle.ft.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Big tech's capture of the Trump administration means we all must believe wild spending on AI is essential for the future. If you take away that Silicon Valley trope, policy might look like China: progress on multiple tech & manufacturing fronts.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
December 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
December 12, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
Good thing the robots will be here shortly, driving the robocalls, while you chill at home with Grok as your only companion....
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Exclusive: Tesla US sales drop to nearly 4-year low in November despite launch of cheaper versions
Tesla's U.S. sales dropped to a near four-year low in November, despite the automaker's rollout of new, cheaper versions of its best-selling electric vehicles, estimates from Cox Automotive given excl...
www.reuters.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Good thing the robots will be here shortly, driving the robocalls, while you chill at home with Grok as your only companion....
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
December 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
December 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
December 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
China takes advantage of feckless and incoherent US policymaking.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs
U.S. pressure has only cemented its rival’s status as the world’s indispensable factory floor, sending its trade surplus above $1 trillion.
www.wsj.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM
China takes advantage of feckless and incoherent US policymaking.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Policy incoherence 101:
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
December 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Policy incoherence 101:
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
December 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
Did Putin help draft this thing?
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US national security strategy calls for ‘cultivating resistance’ in Europe
Policy document blasts traditional allies while failing to criticise Russia
giftarticle.ft.com
December 5, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Did Putin help draft this thing?
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Hard to improve upon Torsten Slok's list of 5 major market risks next year.
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
The Daily Spark - Apollo Academy
Want it delivered daily to your inbox? Subscribe Now Torsten Slok Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom...
www.apolloacademy.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Hard to improve upon Torsten Slok's list of 5 major market risks next year.
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
At this point, zero effort is being made to obscure the grift. It's just grabbing government resources with both hands, in every way you can think of.
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Donald Trump Jr-backed start-up scores $600mn US federal government deal
President’s son’s fund 1789 Capital poised to capitalise from father’s administration
giftarticle.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM
At this point, zero effort is being made to obscure the grift. It's just grabbing government resources with both hands, in every way you can think of.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...