Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
Really like Nick Timiraos, but "credibility with the markets" for Hassett?? Watch long bond yields, gold, dollar. It's not a stretch to see some of that starting--see long bond yield jump yesterday. Hassett will complete the installation of incompetents everywhere.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Why Kevin Hassett Is Winning the Fed Chair Race Before It Has Ended
Interviews for the position are still under way, but Hassett offers what other candidates don’t: the president’s trust and credibility with markets.
www.wsj.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Really like Nick Timiraos, but "credibility with the markets" for Hassett?? Watch long bond yields, gold, dollar. It's not a stretch to see some of that starting--see long bond yield jump yesterday. Hassett will complete the installation of incompetents everywhere.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
December 1, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
We remain an 80%/20% economy--the 20% is doing just fine, and responsible for just over 50% of consumer spending.
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
‘A full-blown crisis’: Americans brace for a surge in healthcare costs
West Virginia is at the epicentre of a looming disaster over rising insurance premiums as affordability concerns soar
on.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 12:15 PM
We remain an 80%/20% economy--the 20% is doing just fine, and responsible for just over 50% of consumer spending.
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
November 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
Another reason to worry about the AI bubble trade: the data center backlash is well underway, with a likely result being they become more expensive.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
‘The New Price of Eggs.’ The Political Shocks of Data Centers and Electric Bills
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Another reason to worry about the AI bubble trade: the data center backlash is well underway, with a likely result being they become more expensive.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
Follow a Foundation Investing
A five-minute read: Markets,portfolio notes.
open.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 7:07 PM
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
November 29, 2025 at 3:29 PM
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
November 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
Putin is going for a grand slam: Get positioned to take over all of Ukraine, get the US to subsidize the recovery of the Russian economy, sideline Europe. Win win win for him, delivered by the naive, useful idiots now negotiating on behalf of the US.
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Putin is going for a grand slam: Get positioned to take over all of Ukraine, get the US to subsidize the recovery of the Russian economy, sideline Europe. Win win win for him, delivered by the naive, useful idiots now negotiating on behalf of the US.
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
Commendable job by NYT here, given the state of mainstream media. Let's call this a good start, and when we start seeing dementia articles we know we are are directly facing reality.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
Shorter Days, Signs of Fatigue: Trump Faces Realities of Aging in Office
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Commendable job by NYT here, given the state of mainstream media. Let's call this a good start, and when we start seeing dementia articles we know we are are directly facing reality.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
November 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
November 23, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
November 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
November 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
There is always a case to be made to get rid of a terrible leader of a foreign country. The points here apply to maybe a dozen countries. And history is littered with the cases of unitended consequences. Getting rid of Maduro could easily--easily--create disaster
Opinion | The Case for Overthrowing Maduro (Gift Article)
Thinking through the case for intervention in Venezuela.
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
There is always a case to be made to get rid of a terrible leader of a foreign country. The points here apply to maybe a dozen countries. And history is littered with the cases of unitended consequences. Getting rid of Maduro could easily--easily--create disaster
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
The California Campaign to Introduce a First-of-Its-Kind Billionaire’s Tax
The union-backed ballot measure is aimed at raising healthcare funding, but it faces opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:03 AM
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
Elliott seeks to reassure investors as long-term returns fall behind S&P 500
Performance has lagged at Paul Singer’s hedge fund amid concerns that large size is barrier to strong returns
on.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.