Johan de Aguas
@johandh2o.bsky.social
PhD Student at UiO, Researcher at NIPH, Fulbright Scholar, Statistician, Economist, Industrial Engineer. Web: johandh2o.github.io
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
It is not the first time such on-the-nose grief has been observed in this endangered population. In January, orca J35 carried a dead baby for at least five days. J35 had previously made world headlines in 2018 when she carried her dead calf for 17 days and 1,000 miles. From @kuow.org
Orca mom carries dead newborn calf in San Juans
www.kuow.org
September 15, 2025 at 5:25 PM
It is not the first time such on-the-nose grief has been observed in this endangered population. In January, orca J35 carried a dead baby for at least five days. J35 had previously made world headlines in 2018 when she carried her dead calf for 17 days and 1,000 miles. From @kuow.org
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
"World models," internal AI simulations of reality, are again at the forefront of AI research. While today's LLMs use a fragile patchwork of heuristics, developing true world models is seen as essential for creating robust and adaptable intelligence. #MLSky
‘World Models,’ an Old Idea in AI, Mount a Comeback | Quanta Magazine
You’re carrying around in your head a model of how the world works. Will AI systems need to do the same?
www.quantamagazine.org
September 3, 2025 at 3:56 PM
"World models," internal AI simulations of reality, are again at the forefront of AI research. While today's LLMs use a fragile patchwork of heuristics, developing true world models is seen as essential for creating robust and adaptable intelligence. #MLSky
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Susan Athey, Guido Imbens, Zhaonan Qu, Davide Viviano
Triply Robust Panel Estimators
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536
Triply Robust Panel Estimators
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536
September 1, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Susan Athey, Guido Imbens, Zhaonan Qu, Davide Viviano
Triply Robust Panel Estimators
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536
Triply Robust Panel Estimators
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
link 📈🤖
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts (Aguas, Henckel, Pensar et al) The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive va
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts (Aguas, Henckel, Pensar et al) The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive va
June 19, 2025 at 4:26 PM
link 📈🤖
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts (Aguas, Henckel, Pensar et al) The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive va
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts (Aguas, Henckel, Pensar et al) The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive va
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Johan de Aguas, Leonard Henckel, Johan Pensar, Guido Biele
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15441
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15441
June 19, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Johan de Aguas, Leonard Henckel, Johan Pensar, Guido Biele
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15441
Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15441
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Sometimes psychologists collaborate with causal inference experts and use it for their research, here the probability of benefit or harm of ADHD medication for school outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2502.10049
All math by @johandh2o.bsky.social
All math by @johandh2o.bsky.social
The Probability of Tiered Benefit: Partial Identification with Robust and Stable Inference
We define the Probability of Tiered Benefit in scenarios with a binary exposure and an outcome that is either categorical with $K \geq 2$ ordered tiers or continuous partitioned by $K-1$ fixed thresho...
share.google
June 18, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Sometimes psychologists collaborate with causal inference experts and use it for their research, here the probability of benefit or harm of ADHD medication for school outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2502.10049
All math by @johandh2o.bsky.social
All math by @johandh2o.bsky.social
I loved this conversation of Neil deGrasse Tyson and Grant Sanderson about the hardest math problems: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DEW...
Tackling the Biggest Unsolved Problems in Math with 3Blue1Brown
YouTube video by StarTalk
www.youtube.com
May 29, 2025 at 11:43 AM
I loved this conversation of Neil deGrasse Tyson and Grant Sanderson about the hardest math problems: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DEW...
A new paradigm in math is coming. AI will push it toward a form of neointuitionism and hermeneutic practice, where proofs and math objects are sampled from a system, whether social or artificial, and then interpreted by humans (as in social sciences).
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
Mathematical Beauty, Truth and Proof in the Age of AI | Quanta Magazine
Mathematicians have started to prepare for a profound shift in what it means to do mathematics.
www.quantamagazine.org
May 16, 2025 at 7:06 AM
A new paradigm in math is coming. AI will push it toward a form of neointuitionism and hermeneutic practice, where proofs and math objects are sampled from a system, whether social or artificial, and then interpreted by humans (as in social sciences).
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
Does one have to be a genius to do math? “NO. To make good and useful contributions to math, one does need to work hard, learn one’s field well, learn other fields and tools, ask questions, talk to other mathematicians, and think about the BIG picture"
terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advic...
terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advic...
Does one have to be a genius to do maths?
Better beware of notions like genius and inspiration; they are a sort of magic wand and should be used sparingly by anybody who wants to see things clearly. (José Ortega y Gasset, “Notes on t…
terrytao.wordpress.com
April 21, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Does one have to be a genius to do math? “NO. To make good and useful contributions to math, one does need to work hard, learn one’s field well, learn other fields and tools, ask questions, talk to other mathematicians, and think about the BIG picture"
terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advic...
terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advic...
Many people, especially those untrained, truly believe doing math is just about following strict rules to manipulate symbols on paper. It's more about imagining, playing a naïve for the obvious, and breaking the rules along the way.
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
Mathematical Thinking Isn’t What You Think It Is | Quanta Magazine
The mathematician David Bessis claims that everyone is capable of, and can benefit greatly from, mathematical thinking.
www.quantamagazine.org
April 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Many people, especially those untrained, truly believe doing math is just about following strict rules to manipulate symbols on paper. It's more about imagining, playing a naïve for the obvious, and breaking the rules along the way.
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect.
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
Long-term effect of pharmacological treatment on academic achievement of Norwegian children diagnosed with ADHD: a target trial emulation
AbstractBackground. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most commonly diagnosed mental disorders in children. For many patients,
academic.oup.com
February 21, 2025 at 11:07 AM
ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect.
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition - Read on: www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition
Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in ca...
www.degruyter.com
April 1, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition - Read on: www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
🏹 Job alert: CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security is seeking Tenure-Track Faculty in all areas related to Information Security and Artificial Intelligence (f/m/d).
📍 St. Ingbert, near Saarbrücken 🇩🇪
📅 Apply by April 8
🔗 More info: bit.ly/4i12JV7
📍 St. Ingbert, near Saarbrücken 🇩🇪
📅 Apply by April 8
🔗 More info: bit.ly/4i12JV7
Tenure-Track Faculty in all areas related to Information Security and Artificial Intelligence (f/m/d) - extended call | CISPA | Jobs
bit.ly
March 25, 2025 at 7:43 AM
🏹 Job alert: CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security is seeking Tenure-Track Faculty in all areas related to Information Security and Artificial Intelligence (f/m/d).
📍 St. Ingbert, near Saarbrücken 🇩🇪
📅 Apply by April 8
🔗 More info: bit.ly/4i12JV7
📍 St. Ingbert, near Saarbrücken 🇩🇪
📅 Apply by April 8
🔗 More info: bit.ly/4i12JV7
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Decades from now, the Covid-19 pandemic will be visible in the historical data of nearly anything measurable today. Here’s an incomplete collection of charts that capture that break — across the economy, health care, education, work, family life and more.
30 Charts That Show How Everything Changed in March 2020
It can be easy to forget, or look away from, the pain and disruption of the pandemic. The numbers will be there to remind us.
www.nytimes.com
March 10, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Decades from now, the Covid-19 pandemic will be visible in the historical data of nearly anything measurable today. Here’s an incomplete collection of charts that capture that break — across the economy, health care, education, work, family life and more.
I think one misconception about CI is that is about theory-building. It’s not. It’s about the logical tools to deduce hypothetical changes on already built world-models/theories. Neither CI nor the used models/theories (as in physics) imply the laws of nature.
March 8, 2025 at 7:40 AM
I think one misconception about CI is that is about theory-building. It’s not. It’s about the logical tools to deduce hypothetical changes on already built world-models/theories. Neither CI nor the used models/theories (as in physics) imply the laws of nature.
Karl Pearson was a ferviente opponent of causal language because it invites metaphysics into science. Similar criticism of “subjectivity” have faced Quantum Mechanics and Bayesian Statistics. More than objectivity, utility should be valued
March 8, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Karl Pearson was a ferviente opponent of causal language because it invites metaphysics into science. Similar criticism of “subjectivity” have faced Quantum Mechanics and Bayesian Statistics. More than objectivity, utility should be valued
Internally valid RCTs are relevant, even essential, for scientific discovery. When externally valid, they provide valuable insights for policy design targeting reference populations. Science is not only about discovery: it’s also about world-model building, testing and explaining
March 7, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Internally valid RCTs are relevant, even essential, for scientific discovery. When externally valid, they provide valuable insights for policy design targeting reference populations. Science is not only about discovery: it’s also about world-model building, testing and explaining
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
JOB OPENING at University of Bristol:
-- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning
-- (x 2 positions available)
-- application deadline: 31 March, 2025
Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...
Come join us!
-- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning
-- (x 2 positions available)
-- application deadline: 31 March, 2025
Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...
Come join us!
March 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
JOB OPENING at University of Bristol:
-- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning
-- (x 2 positions available)
-- application deadline: 31 March, 2025
Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...
Come join us!
-- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning
-- (x 2 positions available)
-- application deadline: 31 March, 2025
Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de...
Come join us!
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
I already advertised for this document when I posted it on arXiv, and later when it was published.
This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv.
Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein.
arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216
This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv.
Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein.
arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216
March 5, 2025 at 1:16 AM
I already advertised for this document when I posted it on arXiv, and later when it was published.
This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv.
Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein.
arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216
This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv.
Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein.
arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Job alert: full-time researcher position for AI with CNRS here in France. Initial contract for 5 years (tenure track). Attractive starting package and better salary than regular positions. I have been w/ @cnrs.fr since 2013, it's great!
Applications due 31/03
www.ins2i.cnrs.fr/en/cnrsinfo/...
Applications due 31/03
www.ins2i.cnrs.fr/en/cnrsinfo/...
Choose France - CNRS AI Rising Talents
As part of the French Strategy in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Choose France - CNRS AI Rising Talents program offers exceptionally tal
www.ins2i.cnrs.fr
March 4, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Job alert: full-time researcher position for AI with CNRS here in France. Initial contract for 5 years (tenure track). Attractive starting package and better salary than regular positions. I have been w/ @cnrs.fr since 2013, it's great!
Applications due 31/03
www.ins2i.cnrs.fr/en/cnrsinfo/...
Applications due 31/03
www.ins2i.cnrs.fr/en/cnrsinfo/...
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
🏹 Job alert: @eng.cam.ac.uk is seeking a Uni Asst. Professor in #MachineLearning in the Computational and Biological Learning Lab (CBL) to lead a research programme and teach.
📍 Cambridge, England
📅 Apply by 16 March 2025
🔗 Get details at bit.ly/4khlntY
📍 Cambridge, England
📅 Apply by 16 March 2025
🔗 Get details at bit.ly/4khlntY
University Assistant Professor in Machine Learning - Job Opportunities - University of Cambridge
University Assistant Professor in Machine Learning in the Department of Engineering at the University of Cambridge.
bit.ly
March 4, 2025 at 9:16 AM
🏹 Job alert: @eng.cam.ac.uk is seeking a Uni Asst. Professor in #MachineLearning in the Computational and Biological Learning Lab (CBL) to lead a research programme and teach.
📍 Cambridge, England
📅 Apply by 16 March 2025
🔗 Get details at bit.ly/4khlntY
📍 Cambridge, England
📅 Apply by 16 March 2025
🔗 Get details at bit.ly/4khlntY
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
It's time to Make Causality Less Sectarian Again
(Was it less sectarian before though?)
#causalsky #episky #statsky #mlsky
I make an attempt to present causality as a framework here: bit.ly/41v2ix7
Thoughts?
(Was it less sectarian before though?)
#causalsky #episky #statsky #mlsky
I make an attempt to present causality as a framework here: bit.ly/41v2ix7
Thoughts?
February 26, 2025 at 8:10 AM
It's time to Make Causality Less Sectarian Again
(Was it less sectarian before though?)
#causalsky #episky #statsky #mlsky
I make an attempt to present causality as a framework here: bit.ly/41v2ix7
Thoughts?
(Was it less sectarian before though?)
#causalsky #episky #statsky #mlsky
I make an attempt to present causality as a framework here: bit.ly/41v2ix7
Thoughts?
Hardcore causal experimentalists are weirdly religious. They renounce math and notation, and seriously think randomization alone can explain the laws of nature. Bless their hearts.
February 26, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Hardcore causal experimentalists are weirdly religious. They renounce math and notation, and seriously think randomization alone can explain the laws of nature. Bless their hearts.
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
We are now accepting applications for Postdoctoral Fellows (3 years) or Research Fellows (5 years) in ICT. Deadline 2 February at 11:59 PM Finnish time
Find out more information @ shorturl.at/uMk4i #postdocjob #postdoc #artificialintelligence #datascience #bioinformatics #algorithms #AcademicSky
Find out more information @ shorturl.at/uMk4i #postdocjob #postdoc #artificialintelligence #datascience #bioinformatics #algorithms #AcademicSky
HIIT Postdoctoral and Research Fellow positions
Apply now
HIIT Research Fellow and Postdoctoral Fellow Positions in ICT
The Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT) invites applications for Postdoctoral Fellows and Research Fellows. HI...
shorturl.at
January 21, 2025 at 7:02 AM
We are now accepting applications for Postdoctoral Fellows (3 years) or Research Fellows (5 years) in ICT. Deadline 2 February at 11:59 PM Finnish time
Find out more information @ shorturl.at/uMk4i #postdocjob #postdoc #artificialintelligence #datascience #bioinformatics #algorithms #AcademicSky
Find out more information @ shorturl.at/uMk4i #postdocjob #postdoc #artificialintelligence #datascience #bioinformatics #algorithms #AcademicSky
Reposted by Johan de Aguas
I am hiring in my machine learning group, DL February 2, 2025
Postdocs in Helsinki: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...
Topic: combinations of the following:
- foundations of (prob) ML
- beyond current distribution shift models
- AI-assistance with computationally rational user models
- appl: eng bio etc
Postdocs in Helsinki: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...
Topic: combinations of the following:
- foundations of (prob) ML
- beyond current distribution shift models
- AI-assistance with computationally rational user models
- appl: eng bio etc
January 20, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I am hiring in my machine learning group, DL February 2, 2025
Postdocs in Helsinki: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...
Topic: combinations of the following:
- foundations of (prob) ML
- beyond current distribution shift models
- AI-assistance with computationally rational user models
- appl: eng bio etc
Postdocs in Helsinki: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi...
Topic: combinations of the following:
- foundations of (prob) ML
- beyond current distribution shift models
- AI-assistance with computationally rational user models
- appl: eng bio etc