Tomás Varnet Pérez
@tvarnetperez.bsky.social
Causal inference, statistics and mental health.
PhD @ Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology (OCBE)
PhD @ Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology (OCBE)
Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez
On Chile's national college common app platform, smart personalized info/assistance helped cut mistakes and boosting placements into higher-ranked programs by 20 percent, from Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, and Christopher Neilson https://www.nber.org/papers/w34164
August 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
On Chile's national college common app platform, smart personalized info/assistance helped cut mistakes and boosting placements into higher-ranked programs by 20 percent, from Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, and Christopher Neilson https://www.nber.org/papers/w34164
Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez
This is one of those probability facts that drives my usual advice to people seeking intution for probability theory: Stop seeking intuition! It's not intuitive, and that's why it is so useful.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
In fact, in any group around 60, the likelihood two people share a birthday is virtually 100%.
We could then begin to express the rare likelihood that NO two people share a combination in a group of 50 or more.
The problem was likely developed by number theorist Harold Davenport around 1927.
We could then begin to express the rare likelihood that NO two people share a combination in a group of 50 or more.
The problem was likely developed by number theorist Harold Davenport around 1927.
August 27, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This is one of those probability facts that drives my usual advice to people seeking intution for probability theory: Stop seeking intuition! It's not intuitive, and that's why it is so useful.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
Another exhibit to the underappreciated importance of 'idle' activities for insights and connections.
August 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Another exhibit to the underappreciated importance of 'idle' activities for insights and connections.
Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez
"To be clear, no one is saying correlation implies causation ... but it seems reasonable to assume that it does."
Thanks, Guardian.
Thanks, Guardian.
June 30, 2025 at 8:44 AM
"To be clear, no one is saying correlation implies causation ... but it seems reasonable to assume that it does."
Thanks, Guardian.
Thanks, Guardian.
"According to the CDC, in 10 percent of those drownings, the adult will actually watch the child do it, having no idea it is happening."
Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on.
slate.com/technology/2...
slate.com/technology/2...
Drowning Doesn’t Look Like Drowning
Drowning is not the violent, splashing call for help that most people expect.
slate.com
June 20, 2025 at 11:13 AM
"According to the CDC, in 10 percent of those drownings, the adult will actually watch the child do it, having no idea it is happening."
Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez
We're so not ready for the AI slop deluge.
$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’ – Pivot to AI
$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’ – Pivot to AI
$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’
Peter Purgathofer looked over “Advanced Nanovaccines for Cancer Immunotherapy” by Nanasaheb Thorat, published in March by Springer Nature. On page 25, he found why we pay Springer the big bucks: [h…
pivot-to-ai.com
May 6, 2025 at 7:45 AM
We're so not ready for the AI slop deluge.
$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’ – Pivot to AI
$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’ – Pivot to AI
📝 New Publication: A very complete paper by @johandh2o.bsky.social & co., which could perfectly work as a review of SCM and m-graphs, but ventures further to extend the conditions under which we can correct for selection bias via regression (and even propose multiply-robust targeted estimators!).
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition - Read on: www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition
Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in ca...
www.degruyter.com
April 3, 2025 at 2:46 PM
📝 New Publication: A very complete paper by @johandh2o.bsky.social & co., which could perfectly work as a review of SCM and m-graphs, but ventures further to extend the conditions under which we can correct for selection bias via regression (and even propose multiply-robust targeted estimators!).
ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect.
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
Long-term effect of pharmacological treatment on academic achievement of Norwegian children diagnosed with ADHD: a target trial emulation
AbstractBackground. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most commonly diagnosed mental disorders in children. For many patients,
academic.oup.com
February 21, 2025 at 11:07 AM
ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect.
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵