In some respects it makes the case for a prudent pause by the Fed until it gets a better sense of where inflation & employment stand. #Econ #Econsky

Once the government reopens, we will get inflation data that will likely continue to increase as slow hiring and real wage growth push those concerns to the forefront of the policy discussion. #Econ #EconSky

Just a reminder. CPI increased 3.1% over the past year and is up 3.6% on a three-month annualized pace. It is not going down so if one has doubts about the power of the discussion around affordability check back here. #Econ #EconSky

Throw in a little technology driven decline-yes, AI is part of the solution-in prices and over time one can start talking affordability. #Econ #EconSky

It is clear at this time that its large firms that are driving hiring with small and medium sized firms pulling back as weaker demand down market and pervasive uncertainty from the policy sector has caused those firms to cut labor. #econ #econsky