Joe Brusuelas
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Chief Economist RSM. Board of advisors UCLA Anderson School Economic Forecast. Member Wall Street Journal forecast board. Named 2023 best interest rate forecaster by Bloomberg. Dodgers fan
There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
November 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
US ADP private sector employment estimate shows a 42K gain with service providing firms adding 33K and goods producing firms added 10K. However, small firms cut 10K-the third straight month of losses, medium sized firms cut 21K from its workforce & large firms added 73K on the month. #Econ #EconSky
November 5, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Two best words in the sports lexicon: Game 7
Go @Dodgers!!
Go @Dodgers!!
November 1, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Two best words in the sports lexicon: Game 7
Go @Dodgers!!
Go @Dodgers!!
Happy Halloween
November 1, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Happy Halloween
The FOMC reduced its federal funds policy rate by twenty-five basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% while simultaneously announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by December 1, 2025, and cutting the interest rate paid on excess reserves from 4.15% to 3.9%. #econ
October 29, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The FOMC reduced its federal funds policy rate by twenty-five basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% while simultaneously announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by December 1, 2025, and cutting the interest rate paid on excess reserves from 4.15% to 3.9%. #econ
That was not sport. That was Aeschylus. That was Tolstoy. That was Faulkner.
Dodgers triumphant.
Koufax approved.
Dodgers triumphant.
Koufax approved.
October 28, 2025 at 6:53 AM
That was not sport. That was Aeschylus. That was Tolstoy. That was Faulkner.
Dodgers triumphant.
Koufax approved.
Dodgers triumphant.
Koufax approved.
US September CPI: A Perfect K-Shaped Economic Report
In many ways the U.S. September CPI is the perfect K-Shaped economic report. It gives cover to the Fed to cut in October & December as the monthly pace of inflation eased & is up 3% from a year ago.
That is a good development. #Econ #EconSky
In many ways the U.S. September CPI is the perfect K-Shaped economic report. It gives cover to the Fed to cut in October & December as the monthly pace of inflation eased & is up 3% from a year ago.
That is a good development. #Econ #EconSky
October 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Father of the year candidate right there.
And if one was raised in the 1970’s this is what it was like with boomer parents. At least there’s not a pack of Marlborough’s & Corona is a superior produce to the nattie-lite that was popular at the ballpark back in the day
And if one was raised in the 1970’s this is what it was like with boomer parents. At least there’s not a pack of Marlborough’s & Corona is a superior produce to the nattie-lite that was popular at the ballpark back in the day
October 21, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Father of the year candidate right there.
And if one was raised in the 1970’s this is what it was like with boomer parents. At least there’s not a pack of Marlborough’s & Corona is a superior produce to the nattie-lite that was popular at the ballpark back in the day
And if one was raised in the 1970’s this is what it was like with boomer parents. At least there’s not a pack of Marlborough’s & Corona is a superior produce to the nattie-lite that was popular at the ballpark back in the day
Argentina Bailout, Conditionality and Collateral: The U.S. verbal intervention to prop up an overvalued Argentinian peso-it needs at least a further 25% depreciation- has run its course & the peso is depreciating again. Yes, that means higher inflation in Argentina is inevitable. #Eco #EconSky
October 3, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Getting ready to appear on @BloombergTV with @mattmiller1973 to discuss the US government shutdown and the sagging prospects of the American labor market. See you at 10:30AM ET.
October 1, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Getting ready to appear on @BloombergTV with @mattmiller1973 to discuss the US government shutdown and the sagging prospects of the American labor market. See you at 10:30AM ET.
Why are small & medium size firms reducing headcount: it’s policy uncertainty. Lack of clarity on the cost of doing business is now weighing heavy on hiring. It’s a rational response to a fog of uncertainty.
October 1, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Why are small & medium size firms reducing headcount: it’s policy uncertainty. Lack of clarity on the cost of doing business is now weighing heavy on hiring. It’s a rational response to a fog of uncertainty.
There is no way to sugar coat this. Hiring is at risk as businesses simply see uncertainty increasing and are acting appropriately. Given that the government shutdown & threats of mass firings permeate the latest edition of the fiscal follies this is all not conducive to the payroll outlook.
October 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM
There is no way to sugar coat this. Hiring is at risk as businesses simply see uncertainty increasing and are acting appropriately. Given that the government shutdown & threats of mass firings permeate the latest edition of the fiscal follies this is all not conducive to the payroll outlook.
ADP Payroll Estimate: The internals indicate that small and medium size firms have stopped hiring. Small firms shed 40K jobs and medium sized firms let go of 20K individuals. Large firms hired 33K. By sector good produces let go of 3K and service producers 28K. #Econ #EconSky
October 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM
A government shutdown will subtract 0.1 ppts from GDP per week. A shutdown lasting more than a few days tends to sap corporate confidence & results in reduced hiring & capital investments over the next couple of months in addition to further potential downgrades to the U.S. credit rating. #Econ.
September 29, 2025 at 11:59 AM
A government shutdown will subtract 0.1 ppts from GDP per week. A shutdown lasting more than a few days tends to sap corporate confidence & results in reduced hiring & capital investments over the next couple of months in addition to further potential downgrades to the U.S. credit rating. #Econ.
US August CPI: Stagflation continues to be the primary narrative underscoring the American economy. It has been four decades since Americans experienced stagflation.
September 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
US August CPI: Stagflation continues to be the primary narrative underscoring the American economy. It has been four decades since Americans experienced stagflation.
I will be appearing on @ABC @ABCNewsLive in the bloc around 4:10PM ET & the A bloc just after 6PM ET to discuss the day in economics & finance as well as that downward revision of 911K jobs to the hiring data between April 2024 & March 2025.
September 9, 2025 at 7:24 PM
I will be appearing on @ABC @ABCNewsLive in the bloc around 4:10PM ET & the A bloc just after 6PM ET to discuss the day in economics & finance as well as that downward revision of 911K jobs to the hiring data between April 2024 & March 2025.
A look at the BLS Benchmark Revision over the past twenty-five years. In a 163 million labor force in the context of a $30 trillion economy the 911K downward revision smoothed out over a year is not that large.
September 9, 2025 at 3:21 PM
A look at the BLS Benchmark Revision over the past twenty-five years. In a 163 million labor force in the context of a $30 trillion economy the 911K downward revision smoothed out over a year is not that large.
Good morning. This Tuesday at 10AM ET the BLS benchmark revision to the establishment survey will be published for the period April
2024 & March 2025.
We think it should show around 40k to 50K less jobs created per month or between 500,000 & 600,000 during that timeframe. #Econ #EconSky
2024 & March 2025.
We think it should show around 40k to 50K less jobs created per month or between 500,000 & 600,000 during that timeframe. #Econ #EconSky
September 7, 2025 at 2:58 PM
