JLRay
@jlray.bsky.social
Texas. Senior director of polling at YouGov. Adviser to Young Men Research Initiative.
johnlray.github.io
johnlray.github.io
Another great day to delight in the fact that while most young men recognize Elon Musk and are exposed to news about him in some capacity, the overwhelming majority of them also think he's full of it
www.ymrp.org/polling
www.ymrp.org/polling
November 11, 2025 at 5:11 AM
Another great day to delight in the fact that while most young men recognize Elon Musk and are exposed to news about him in some capacity, the overwhelming majority of them also think he's full of it
www.ymrp.org/polling
www.ymrp.org/polling
Need this guy to pay him a visit on his next trip
November 11, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Need this guy to pay him a visit on his next trip
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 4.3k)
Who do you blame for the shutdown: Dems 31, Reps 34
Approve/disapprove of the deal to end the shutdown: approve 37, disapprove 29
Who do you think benefited most from the deal? Dems 9, Reps 38
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
Who do you blame for the shutdown: Dems 31, Reps 34
Approve/disapprove of the deal to end the shutdown: approve 37, disapprove 29
Who do you think benefited most from the deal? Dems 9, Reps 38
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
November 10, 2025 at 11:59 PM
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 4.3k)
Who do you blame for the shutdown: Dems 31, Reps 34
Approve/disapprove of the deal to end the shutdown: approve 37, disapprove 29
Who do you think benefited most from the deal? Dems 9, Reps 38
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
Who do you blame for the shutdown: Dems 31, Reps 34
Approve/disapprove of the deal to end the shutdown: approve 37, disapprove 29
Who do you think benefited most from the deal? Dems 9, Reps 38
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
From YouGov, Trump was at -40 on handling of the shutdown, but within Congress, both sides (and both wings of both parties) were taking heat. Far from clear how this impacts 2026 except to say we're no longer talking about Trump's weakest issue.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ya...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ya...
November 10, 2025 at 2:34 PM
From YouGov, Trump was at -40 on handling of the shutdown, but within Congress, both sides (and both wings of both parties) were taking heat. Far from clear how this impacts 2026 except to say we're no longer talking about Trump's weakest issue.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ya...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ya...
"Put $3.3 million on the books for a $250k condo in a flood zone..."
November 8, 2025 at 11:39 PM
"Put $3.3 million on the books for a $250k condo in a flood zone..."
Forgot to point out AJJ's excellent guitar decal game
November 8, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Forgot to point out AJJ's excellent guitar decal game
AJJ opening for the Murder by Death farewell tour here in Austin. Perfect combo
November 8, 2025 at 4:45 AM
AJJ opening for the Murder by Death farewell tour here in Austin. Perfect combo
The latest from YouGov: still within the MoE and strongly determined by partisanship, but only one party's rating on "handling of the shutdown" is moving the wrong direction
open.substack.com/pub/yougovam...
open.substack.com/pub/yougovam...
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 PM
The latest from YouGov: still within the MoE and strongly determined by partisanship, but only one party's rating on "handling of the shutdown" is moving the wrong direction
open.substack.com/pub/yougovam...
open.substack.com/pub/yougovam...
Recent polling ( x.com/birenbomb/st... ) shows James Talarico rising in the Texas Senate primary.
@ymriofficial.bsky.social did a deep dive on his messaging strategy - give it a read to understand the state of play here in Texas.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-james...
@ymriofficial.bsky.social did a deep dive on his messaging strategy - give it a read to understand the state of play here in Texas.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-james...
November 7, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Recent polling ( x.com/birenbomb/st... ) shows James Talarico rising in the Texas Senate primary.
@ymriofficial.bsky.social did a deep dive on his messaging strategy - give it a read to understand the state of play here in Texas.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-james...
@ymriofficial.bsky.social did a deep dive on his messaging strategy - give it a read to understand the state of play here in Texas.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-james...
On the legacy of House Speakers I'm still exceedingly fond of "the man in the green hat," the guy Sam Rayburn semi-openly allowed to sell liquor to Congressmen during Prohibition. Rayburn's "office hours" (ie, drinking sessions) were vital to building the New Deal.
history.house.gov/Historical-H...
history.house.gov/Historical-H...
November 6, 2025 at 6:52 PM
On the legacy of House Speakers I'm still exceedingly fond of "the man in the green hat," the guy Sam Rayburn semi-openly allowed to sell liquor to Congressmen during Prohibition. Rayburn's "office hours" (ie, drinking sessions) were vital to building the New Deal.
history.house.gov/Historical-H...
history.house.gov/Historical-H...
feels like we aren't hearing much about how bitcoin fell like 25 percent last month and now we're seeing there were "recession-level layoffs" in that time period too
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:35 PM
feels like we aren't hearing much about how bitcoin fell like 25 percent last month and now we're seeing there were "recession-level layoffs" in that time period too
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
One problem with the "Spanberger and Sherrill talked about the cost of living, not appealing to swing voters" take is they both benefited from a big swing among a persuadable group (young men), who are very concerned about the cost of living
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
November 5, 2025 at 3:33 PM
One problem with the "Spanberger and Sherrill talked about the cost of living, not appealing to swing voters" take is they both benefited from a big swing among a persuadable group (young men), who are very concerned about the cost of living
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
The latest from @ymriofficial.bsky.social - take exit polls with a grain of salt, but in elections across the board yesterday, Democrats may have won outright majorities of young men. What was a Trump +5 electorate just a cycle ago swung Dem.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
November 5, 2025 at 3:16 PM
The latest from @ymriofficial.bsky.social - take exit polls with a grain of salt, but in elections across the board yesterday, Democrats may have won outright majorities of young men. What was a Trump +5 electorate just a cycle ago swung Dem.
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
There were a lot of bad results in Texas for Dems tonight, but it's notable that the Houston-area Cypress-Fairbanks school board kicked out a host of Moms Against Liberty incumbents
November 5, 2025 at 5:36 AM
There were a lot of bad results in Texas for Dems tonight, but it's notable that the Houston-area Cypress-Fairbanks school board kicked out a host of Moms Against Liberty incumbents
This feels like a nitpick but why is Mamdani being described as the "democratic socialist candidate" and not the Democrat/WFP, which was his actual party affiliation? He's a Democrat. The Democrat won in NYC. The Democrat won in NJ. Just say what happened.
November 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
This feels like a nitpick but why is Mamdani being described as the "democratic socialist candidate" and not the Democrat/WFP, which was his actual party affiliation? He's a Democrat. The Democrat won in NYC. The Democrat won in NJ. Just say what happened.
One of the many reasons local wins are so important is they cut short careers that could've been the next class of MAGA leaders. As of the previous Congress, 44 percent had come up from the state leg. Democrats just Terminator'd a dozen could've-been Hawleys and Cruzs.
www.ncsl.org/state-legisl...
www.ncsl.org/state-legisl...
November 5, 2025 at 2:25 AM
One of the many reasons local wins are so important is they cut short careers that could've been the next class of MAGA leaders. As of the previous Congress, 44 percent had come up from the state leg. Democrats just Terminator'd a dozen could've-been Hawleys and Cruzs.
www.ncsl.org/state-legisl...
www.ncsl.org/state-legisl...
One of the persistent myths out there is that young guys who buy crypto love the unregulated, unpoliced state of the market. There's zero evidence for it. Most young men want crypto to be more regulated, and don't like Trump's corrupting influence on it.
November 4, 2025 at 6:47 PM
One of the persistent myths out there is that young guys who buy crypto love the unregulated, unpoliced state of the market. There's zero evidence for it. Most young men want crypto to be more regulated, and don't like Trump's corrupting influence on it.
Kalshi getting a giant billboard to display betting odds in the heart of a major mayoral race's geography on election day just doesn't feel great to me
November 4, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Kalshi getting a giant billboard to display betting odds in the heart of a major mayoral race's geography on election day just doesn't feel great to me
for Halloween he went as the world's most irritable pirate and i went as a guy whose arms are covered in cat scratches
November 4, 2025 at 1:11 AM
for Halloween he went as the world's most irritable pirate and i went as a guy whose arms are covered in cat scratches
Put together a quick voter guide for Austinites on our local and statewide measures based on the consensus endorsements of local papers and Democratic groups. Lets protect Austin's budget from state and federal attacks. No free land for ICE.
bluevoterguide.org/view-ballot?...
bluevoterguide.org/view-ballot?...
November 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Put together a quick voter guide for Austinites on our local and statewide measures based on the consensus endorsements of local papers and Democratic groups. Lets protect Austin's budget from state and federal attacks. No free land for ICE.
bluevoterguide.org/view-ballot?...
bluevoterguide.org/view-ballot?...
The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
October 31, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
Really fascinating stuff in this YG analysis of online gamblers. Working full time but low-income, significantly more likely to report poor mental health, anxiety, and depression, "deeply cynical about marriage" but "hopeless romantics." "Over-indexes on ADHD."
platform.yougov.com/resources
platform.yougov.com/resources
October 31, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Really fascinating stuff in this YG analysis of online gamblers. Working full time but low-income, significantly more likely to report poor mental health, anxiety, and depression, "deeply cynical about marriage" but "hopeless romantics." "Over-indexes on ADHD."
platform.yougov.com/resources
platform.yougov.com/resources
Interesting data from a YouGov report on character choices in videogames. Those who say women characters in a game make them less interested in that game are pretty clearly a vocal minority. Most gamers are fine-to-positive on having the option.
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
October 31, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Interesting data from a YouGov report on character choices in videogames. Those who say women characters in a game make them less interested in that game are pretty clearly a vocal minority. Most gamers are fine-to-positive on having the option.
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
Listening to the latest @profgalloway.com @kyla.bsky.social interview it sounds like the CS crash is the casino economy embodied - in a very unequal society where massive risk takers (or those masquerading as such) are treated like heroes, risky behavior feels more appealing
pca.st/episode/09a9...
pca.st/episode/09a9...
October 30, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Listening to the latest @profgalloway.com @kyla.bsky.social interview it sounds like the CS crash is the casino economy embodied - in a very unequal society where massive risk takers (or those masquerading as such) are treated like heroes, risky behavior feels more appealing
pca.st/episode/09a9...
pca.st/episode/09a9...
Like I was quite surprised to see how many young people are basically just using YouTube for channel surfing
October 29, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Like I was quite surprised to see how many young people are basically just using YouTube for channel surfing