Jim Paulsen
@jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
PhD economist by training. 40 years as a Chief Investment Strategist still following the economy & financial markets at http://paulsenperspectives.Substack.com
Job numbers are punk, and the unemployment rate is up to 4.4%. Trends in public company employment are even worse. Policy officials need to make job creation "the" priority! Check out my work at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Job numbers are punk, and the unemployment rate is up to 4.4%. Trends in public company employment are even worse. Policy officials need to make job creation "the" priority! Check out my work at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
US Inflation has been calm for the past 3 years. Real GDP growth & jobs have been subpar for 20 years and both are currently punk. Why do policy officials continue to emphasize fighting inflation rather than promoting/supporting real growth? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:11 PM
US Inflation has been calm for the past 3 years. Real GDP growth & jobs have been subpar for 20 years and both are currently punk. Why do policy officials continue to emphasize fighting inflation rather than promoting/supporting real growth? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The Main Street Meter has a strong inverse relationship with future stock market returns. It has declined substantially suggesting the stock market is "younger" and more attractive than 22% of time since 1955! See my latest report for all the details at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The Main Street Meter has a strong inverse relationship with future stock market returns. It has declined substantially suggesting the stock market is "younger" and more attractive than 22% of time since 1955! See my latest report for all the details at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The Stock Market is entering its historically strongest part of the year (November through April) after performance during its weakest part (May thru Oct) was STRONG. Both seasonal results point to additional solid stock market returns. See my full report for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:59 AM
The Stock Market is entering its historically strongest part of the year (November through April) after performance during its weakest part (May thru Oct) was STRONG. Both seasonal results point to additional solid stock market returns. See my full report for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Participation in this bull market has been extremely narrow. However, for the 1st time in about 2 years, RTY's EPS is outpacing S&P EPS. Maybe more accommodative economic policies are starting to awaken broader parts of the stock market? paulsenperspectives.subtack.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Participation in this bull market has been extremely narrow. However, for the 1st time in about 2 years, RTY's EPS is outpacing S&P EPS. Maybe more accommodative economic policies are starting to awaken broader parts of the stock market? paulsenperspectives.subtack.com
Despite the 2020-2022 inflationary surge being one of the largest in post-war history, among the economy’s major performance benchmarks - real GDP, employment, real profits, & real wages -- there was little damaging impact. Why? See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Despite the 2020-2022 inflationary surge being one of the largest in post-war history, among the economy’s major performance benchmarks - real GDP, employment, real profits, & real wages -- there was little damaging impact. Why? See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
What has happened to US economic momentum since the government quit releasing econ reports on Oct. 1st? A good proxy for US economic surprises may be the relative performance of S&P cyclical sectors. Cyclicals have continued underperforming badly since Oct 1!
See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
What has happened to US economic momentum since the government quit releasing econ reports on Oct. 1st? A good proxy for US economic surprises may be the relative performance of S&P cyclical sectors. Cyclicals have continued underperforming badly since Oct 1!
See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
New-era has carried investors during the first three years of this bull market. Could old-era segments assisted by economic policy easing finally take leadership and elongate this bull for a few more years? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM
New-era has carried investors during the first three years of this bull market. Could old-era segments assisted by economic policy easing finally take leadership and elongate this bull for a few more years? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Because the jobs market has been so weak, it's become the most important economic metric. Less than 1% job growth in the last year and a rise in the UR make job market conditions simply unacceptable. See my latest free report "Jobs Rule" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
October 2, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Because the jobs market has been so weak, it's become the most important economic metric. Less than 1% job growth in the last year and a rise in the UR make job market conditions simply unacceptable. See my latest free report "Jobs Rule" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
I suspect the disinflationary force from weakness in real economic activities will more than offset any additional inflationary force from tariffs. The chart below shows the average growth of 7 key metrics relative to CPI inflation. See my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I suspect the disinflationary force from weakness in real economic activities will more than offset any additional inflationary force from tariffs. The chart below shows the average growth of 7 key metrics relative to CPI inflation. See my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
US Confidence has been depressed since 2022 primarily because of chronic recession fears tied to an inverted YC. The Fed is finally easing and recession probabilities declining. Thus, confidence & stocks should rise in the coming year. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 22, 2025 at 12:03 PM
US Confidence has been depressed since 2022 primarily because of chronic recession fears tied to an inverted YC. The Fed is finally easing and recession probabilities declining. Thus, confidence & stocks should rise in the coming year. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Since the Fed has finally opened the basement door, my latest piece asks, "how low can bond yields go"? The CPI inflation rate, resource unemployment, and Dr. Copper as well as several other strong historical relationships all say bond yields remain too high. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Since the Fed has finally opened the basement door, my latest piece asks, "how low can bond yields go"? The CPI inflation rate, resource unemployment, and Dr. Copper as well as several other strong historical relationships all say bond yields remain too high. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
A Fed ease will be BIG for the stock market. This is the only Bull market in post-war history which has lived its entire existence with negative excess financial liquidity growth and with an inverted yield curve. This is about to change and #stocks will love it! paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 12, 2025 at 3:58 PM
A Fed ease will be BIG for the stock market. This is the only Bull market in post-war history which has lived its entire existence with negative excess financial liquidity growth and with an inverted yield curve. This is about to change and #stocks will love it! paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic Capacity is oddly expanding as the recovery matures. Labor & factory capacity are growing, policy capacity (e.g., YC is still inverted, excess money growth is still low), private balance sheet capacity & liquidity remain immense. See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 11, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Economic Capacity is oddly expanding as the recovery matures. Labor & factory capacity are growing, policy capacity (e.g., YC is still inverted, excess money growth is still low), private balance sheet capacity & liquidity remain immense. See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See my latest report "It's Time to Discard the 2% Inflation Obsession". As the charts below demonstrate, there is nothing magical about 2% inflation for real GDP, jobs, or real profits & income growth. For further insights, click the link below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 8, 2025 at 11:41 AM
See my latest report "It's Time to Discard the 2% Inflation Obsession". As the charts below demonstrate, there is nothing magical about 2% inflation for real GDP, jobs, or real profits & income growth. For further insights, click the link below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The fearful fuel underlying the gold rally is finally starting to fade and the price of gold is increasingly at risk. See the relative price chart below. Could its relative price return to its range since 1980? Click the link for my latest report "Golden Risk" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 4, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The fearful fuel underlying the gold rally is finally starting to fade and the price of gold is increasingly at risk. See the relative price chart below. Could its relative price return to its range since 1980? Click the link for my latest report "Golden Risk" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Is there really any mystery why homebuyer affordability has risen and stayed so high? The chart below offers one compelling reason. Affordability may also why consumer confidence is so low. A Fed easing could improve much on both Main and Wall. See my work at PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Is there really any mystery why homebuyer affordability has risen and stayed so high? The chart below offers one compelling reason. Affordability may also why consumer confidence is so low. A Fed easing could improve much on both Main and Wall. See my work at PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
Since 1970, intl. stocks have only had 3 secular leadership cycles and each of these coincided with a secular decline in the US dollar. Has a 4th secular decline in the dollar begun making the case for a secular overweight in intl. stocks? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
September 2, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Since 1970, intl. stocks have only had 3 secular leadership cycles and each of these coincided with a secular decline in the US dollar. Has a 4th secular decline in the dollar begun making the case for a secular overweight in intl. stocks? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Health care stocks have been a dismal investment during this bull market. But relative to real drug prices, the S&P 500 health care sector finally trades in its cheapest quartile for the first time in 15 years. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 28, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Health care stocks have been a dismal investment during this bull market. But relative to real drug prices, the S&P 500 health care sector finally trades in its cheapest quartile for the first time in 15 years. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
If the Fed begins easing will recession fears again rise? Perhaps the better question is 'can' the economy recess? Many characteristics are evident today which rarely are seen at the start of past recessions like the two examples below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 25, 2025 at 11:35 AM
If the Fed begins easing will recession fears again rise? Perhaps the better question is 'can' the economy recess? Many characteristics are evident today which rarely are seen at the start of past recessions like the two examples below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Excess economic liquidity divided by the cash hoarding/dumping indicator has demonstrated a close relationship with inflation and yields since 1960. If inflation risk is overblown, stocks & bonds may have another leg left. For the details, See my latest report @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 21, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Excess economic liquidity divided by the cash hoarding/dumping indicator has demonstrated a close relationship with inflation and yields since 1960. If inflation risk is overblown, stocks & bonds may have another leg left. For the details, See my latest report @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The S&P 500 trades at a premium to its post-war trendline of 43%, higher than 93% of the time. However, much of the broader US stock market continues to sell below respective trendlines. See my latest report for the implications of the narrowest bull since WWII.
paulsen.perspectives.substack.com
paulsen.perspectives.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 11:50 AM
The S&P 500 trades at a premium to its post-war trendline of 43%, higher than 93% of the time. However, much of the broader US stock market continues to sell below respective trendlines. See my latest report for the implications of the narrowest bull since WWII.
paulsen.perspectives.substack.com
paulsen.perspectives.substack.com
US economic surprise indices measure real growth & inflation momentum. As the chart below shows, today's environment looks much more like "weak growth" than it does "stagflation". See my latest report "A Pictorial Look at Inflation" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 1:22 PM
US economic surprise indices measure real growth & inflation momentum. As the chart below shows, today's environment looks much more like "weak growth" than it does "stagflation". See my latest report "A Pictorial Look at Inflation" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My latest "A Small Company Story" considers whether the Fed has been tightening during a split US economy since 2022-a recession for small companies and an ongoing recovery for large companies. Is this about to end with a Fed ease and small leadership? paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 11:56 AM
My latest "A Small Company Story" considers whether the Fed has been tightening during a split US economy since 2022-a recession for small companies and an ongoing recovery for large companies. Is this about to end with a Fed ease and small leadership? paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Whether the Fed cuts rates or not, monetary policy is starting to change its stripes. Excess real liquidity growth has turned positive this quarter for the first time in this bull market! As shown on the chart, this is good news for stock investors! paulsenperspectives.substack.com
August 7, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Whether the Fed cuts rates or not, monetary policy is starting to change its stripes. Excess real liquidity growth has turned positive this quarter for the first time in this bull market! As shown on the chart, this is good news for stock investors! paulsenperspectives.substack.com