Jim Paulsen
@jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
PhD economist by training. 40 years as a Chief Investment Strategist still following the economy & financial markets at http://paulsenperspectives.Substack.com
The passing of the baton was fumbled in 2000 during the dotcom bull market, but here in 2026, the baton seems to be passing more smoothly allowing broader market plays to run the next leg while avoiding a total collapse in new era stocks. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 12:40 PM
The passing of the baton was fumbled in 2000 during the dotcom bull market, but here in 2026, the baton seems to be passing more smoothly allowing broader market plays to run the next leg while avoiding a total collapse in new era stocks. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Yesterday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly discussion. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to watch the video. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxKF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxKF...
It's Been Dead for 18 Months | Jim Paulsen on the Hidden Market Leadership Change
YouTube video by Excess Returns
www.youtube.com
February 6, 2026 at 7:47 PM
Yesterday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly discussion. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to watch the video. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxKF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxKF...
Bond Volatility is recently less than 90% of the time since 1990 while stock Vol has remained about average. Stock/bond relative vol is now top quintile which shown by the charts below has been very good for future stock market returns. See my latest report at: PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Bond Volatility is recently less than 90% of the time since 1990 while stock Vol has remained about average. Stock/bond relative vol is now top quintile which shown by the charts below has been very good for future stock market returns. See my latest report at: PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
See my latest report "A Growth Glitch?" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com for a few indicators like the ones highlighted below suggesting real U.S. economic growth may be headed for a period of disappointment. This may cause some volatility but also bring greater policy accommodation.
February 2, 2026 at 12:31 PM
See my latest report "A Growth Glitch?" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com for a few indicators like the ones highlighted below suggesting real U.S. economic growth may be headed for a period of disappointment. This may cause some volatility but also bring greater policy accommodation.
Conditions in the US job market remain 'recession-like'. The Unemployment Rate has risen by 1% and annual job growth is only 0.37%. However, when job conditions are this feeble, the stock market has typically done well. See the charts below and my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Conditions in the US job market remain 'recession-like'. The Unemployment Rate has risen by 1% and annual job growth is only 0.37%. However, when job conditions are this feeble, the stock market has typically done well. See the charts below and my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Will JOBS Rule in 2026? When job creation flatlines, hope fades, and policy officials have no choice but to become more accommodative. With NFP YOY slowing to only 0.37% and average unemployment lasting almost 25 weeks, policies need to ease. See my latest post @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Will JOBS Rule in 2026? When job creation flatlines, hope fades, and policy officials have no choice but to become more accommodative. With NFP YOY slowing to only 0.37% and average unemployment lasting almost 25 weeks, policies need to ease. See my latest post @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Although the US has not had a recession since 2020, "fear" of recession has remained high throughout this bull market. Recession risk is finally easing which could significantly alter stock market leadership. See my latest report for sectors set to benefit @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Although the US has not had a recession since 2020, "fear" of recession has remained high throughout this bull market. Recession risk is finally easing which could significantly alter stock market leadership. See my latest report for sectors set to benefit @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
How long before most investors decide to lighten up "LOSERS" like New Era stocks? Smalls win and Tech loses for the last 18 Months! Nearly everyone is overweighted Tech and wonder if its finally time to reduce bets. See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:14 PM
How long before most investors decide to lighten up "LOSERS" like New Era stocks? Smalls win and Tech loses for the last 18 Months! Nearly everyone is overweighted Tech and wonder if its finally time to reduce bets. See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Some of the best stock market returns have come when uncertainty was extreme. Simply put, today UNCERTAINTY RULES! So, don’t run for cover … Invest!
See my latest report "Careful what you wish for" @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See my latest report "Careful what you wish for" @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Some of the best stock market returns have come when uncertainty was extreme. Simply put, today UNCERTAINTY RULES! So, don’t run for cover … Invest!
See my latest report "Careful what you wish for" @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See my latest report "Careful what you wish for" @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
S&P EPS are almost universally expected to increase again this year. However, the continued rising trend in the unemployment rate is telling a much more cautious story about potential profit outcomes in 2026. See my latest full report "Market Messages" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:32 PM
S&P EPS are almost universally expected to increase again this year. However, the continued rising trend in the unemployment rate is telling a much more cautious story about potential profit outcomes in 2026. See my latest full report "Market Messages" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
First time on any 1-year trailing period that the Russell 2000 Index has OUTPACED the S&P 500 Index since October 2022. This Bull Market is Changing its Strips!!
See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 8:59 PM
First time on any 1-year trailing period that the Russell 2000 Index has OUTPACED the S&P 500 Index since October 2022. This Bull Market is Changing its Strips!!
See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
See my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Productivity rises temporarily when the UR rises. Sustained productivity cycles only occur when the UR trends lower. As shown below, despite AI excitement, sustained productivity has been elusive in the contemporary period. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Productivity rises temporarily when the UR rises. Sustained productivity cycles only occur when the UR trends lower. As shown below, despite AI excitement, sustained productivity has been elusive in the contemporary period. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
TPS (Total Policy Stimulus) has finally been rising for the first time in this bull run. As the charts below indicate, this may awaken "old-era" parts of the stock market like small caps & cyclical sectors. See my latest report "2026 is all about the Policy Push" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 12:50 PM
TPS (Total Policy Stimulus) has finally been rising for the first time in this bull run. As the charts below indicate, this may awaken "old-era" parts of the stock market like small caps & cyclical sectors. See my latest report "2026 is all about the Policy Push" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
youtu.be/4PV5YT3cqXU
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
youtu.be/4PV5YT3cqXU
It’s Not K-Shaped. It’s No Shaped | Jim Paulsen on What You're Getting Wrong About 2026
YouTube video by Excess Returns
youtu.be
January 7, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
youtu.be/4PV5YT3cqXU
@practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
youtu.be/4PV5YT3cqXU
See my latest report "New Years Nuggets" for a few economic & investments nuggets (hopefully a few prove golden) to ring in the New Year. Below is one example of an indicator suggesting "Animal Spirits" may take over in 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:38 PM
See my latest report "New Years Nuggets" for a few economic & investments nuggets (hopefully a few prove golden) to ring in the New Year. Below is one example of an indicator suggesting "Animal Spirits" may take over in 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Please check out my latest missive which discusses five less followed cautionary signs for new era stocks during 2026 -- which go beyond excessive popularity and high valuations. One example is shown below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
December 31, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Please check out my latest missive which discusses five less followed cautionary signs for new era stocks during 2026 -- which go beyond excessive popularity and high valuations. One example is shown below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
Please click the link below for my 2026 Economic & Financial Market Outlook. A few thought/guesses on how the New Year may unfold. Thanks!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/2026-econo...
paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/2026-econo...
2026 Economic & Financial Market Outlook
What will real growth, inflation, yields, and the stock market do in 2026? And it's not the K-shaped economy, it's the NO-shaped economy!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Please click the link below for my 2026 Economic & Financial Market Outlook. A few thought/guesses on how the New Year may unfold. Thanks!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/2026-econo...
paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/2026-econo...
The Fed funds rate has been trailing real commodity prices by about two years since 2020. Should Fed policy remain "lagged & tardy", commodity prices suggest a 2.25%ish funds rate and a 3%ish 10-year yield by the end of 2026. See my latest free report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:03 PM
The Fed funds rate has been trailing real commodity prices by about two years since 2020. Should Fed policy remain "lagged & tardy", commodity prices suggest a 2.25%ish funds rate and a 3%ish 10-year yield by the end of 2026. See my latest free report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The SP 500 PE ratio has been high throughout this bull market, but Main Street confidence remains pessimistic, and the stock market keeps climbing. Maybe a better valuation guide is the Emotion-Adjusted PE. For all the details, see my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 12:44 PM
The SP 500 PE ratio has been high throughout this bull market, but Main Street confidence remains pessimistic, and the stock market keeps climbing. Maybe a better valuation guide is the Emotion-Adjusted PE. For all the details, see my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Investors often don't realize that changes in Main Street confidence are just as impactful as changes in EPS. I suspect 2026 will be primarily driven by a confidence revival even if EPS flatten. See my latest for all the details @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Investors often don't realize that changes in Main Street confidence are just as impactful as changes in EPS. I suspect 2026 will be primarily driven by a confidence revival even if EPS flatten. See my latest for all the details @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Despite the federal debt to GDP ratio rising steadily during the last 40 years, the 10-year Tbond yield has persistently declined! Bond Vigilante sightings appear to be more folklore than fact! See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Despite the federal debt to GDP ratio rising steadily during the last 40 years, the 10-year Tbond yield has persistently declined! Bond Vigilante sightings appear to be more folklore than fact! See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Despite all the hand wringing over inflation, recession and tariffs, the US economy has mostly been in the sweet spot for equity investors in recent years -- not too hot nor too cold. Maybe investors should just chill until the economy leaves the "sweet spot"? PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Despite all the hand wringing over inflation, recession and tariffs, the US economy has mostly been in the sweet spot for equity investors in recent years -- not too hot nor too cold. Maybe investors should just chill until the economy leaves the "sweet spot"? PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
During the govt. shutdown, economic data was delayed, but the relative performance of cyclical stocks continued to provide a daily read on overall economic momentum. The real-time performance of cyclicals continues to suggest US economic conditions remain punk. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
During the govt. shutdown, economic data was delayed, but the relative performance of cyclical stocks continued to provide a daily read on overall economic momentum. The real-time performance of cyclicals continues to suggest US economic conditions remain punk. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
The Copper/Gold Price has been steadily declining since mid-2022 -- when CPI Inflation Peaked -- and continues to suggest the Fed Funds Rate is WAY too high. Dr. Copper is indicating the Fed may be cutting rates many more times as we enter 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The Copper/Gold Price has been steadily declining since mid-2022 -- when CPI Inflation Peaked -- and continues to suggest the Fed Funds Rate is WAY too high. Dr. Copper is indicating the Fed may be cutting rates many more times as we enter 2026. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic growth has slowed to unacceptable levels, says author Jim Paulsen cnb.cx/4iE39CF
I had the great pleasure joining @jonfortt on @CNBCOvertime
yesterday. Hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for having me, Jon!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
I had the great pleasure joining @jonfortt on @CNBCOvertime
yesterday. Hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for having me, Jon!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic growth has slowed to unacceptable levels, says author Jim Paulsen
Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives author, and Charles Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and the state of the U.S. economy.
cnb.cx
December 5, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Economic growth has slowed to unacceptable levels, says author Jim Paulsen cnb.cx/4iE39CF
I had the great pleasure joining @jonfortt on @CNBCOvertime
yesterday. Hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for having me, Jon!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
I had the great pleasure joining @jonfortt on @CNBCOvertime
yesterday. Hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for having me, Jon!
paulsenperspectives.substack.com