Surprise #3: Declining CO2 emissions

Total CO2 emissions reflects the net effect of cheap natural gas and renewables deployment, which led to the accelerated retirement of coal.

Here's total energy-related CO2 emissions in million metric tons using AEO editions 2005-2023:

Here’s projected total solar PV generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023:

Here’s projected wind generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023:

Here’s projected U.S. crude oil production in million barrels per day using AEO editions 2005-2023:

Here’s projected U.S. dry natural gas production in trillion cubic feet using AEO editions 2005-2023:

(all modeled cases; black line is actual)