Jan Dutton
@jfd118.bsky.social
Reposted by Jan Dutton
#HappyValley has a bit of (white) fog on the day of the #Whiteout
September 27, 2025 at 11:34 AM
#HappyValley has a bit of (white) fog on the day of the #Whiteout
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Iowa: Slightly different story.
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
August 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Iowa: Slightly different story.
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Post 50% silking weather risk isn’t the same everywhere. State graphics show IL & IN yields are highly heat-sensitive (30–60 days after 50% silking), while IA is less responsive.
For #grain markets: heat > precip. Thread👇
#oatt #AgWx #corn #CornBelt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
For #grain markets: heat > precip. Thread👇
#oatt #AgWx #corn #CornBelt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
August 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Reposted by Jan Dutton
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July.
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
August 15, 2025 at 12:45 PM
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July.
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Reposted by Jan Dutton
The 15-day GEFS #corn prod-wghtd avg temp anom is +2.8°F vs +1.3°F in the ECMWF fcst—especially warmer in IA, NE, SD & KS.
The CropProphet #AgWeather fcst–impacted yield fcst shows a national corn yield decline of 0.4 bu/ac (GEFS) vs a gain of 0.5 bu/ac (ECMWF).
#oatt #agwx #Agriculture #Grains
The CropProphet #AgWeather fcst–impacted yield fcst shows a national corn yield decline of 0.4 bu/ac (GEFS) vs a gain of 0.5 bu/ac (ECMWF).
#oatt #agwx #Agriculture #Grains
July 24, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The 15-day GEFS #corn prod-wghtd avg temp anom is +2.8°F vs +1.3°F in the ECMWF fcst—especially warmer in IA, NE, SD & KS.
The CropProphet #AgWeather fcst–impacted yield fcst shows a national corn yield decline of 0.4 bu/ac (GEFS) vs a gain of 0.5 bu/ac (ECMWF).
#oatt #agwx #Agriculture #Grains
The CropProphet #AgWeather fcst–impacted yield fcst shows a national corn yield decline of 0.4 bu/ac (GEFS) vs a gain of 0.5 bu/ac (ECMWF).
#oatt #agwx #Agriculture #Grains
Reposted by Jan Dutton
🌾 Why CropProphet? 🌾
Argentina's soybean yields rely on weather during critical stages. CropProphet delivers actionable insights for grain traders and more.
👉 Try us today: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#CropProphet #Soybeans #GrainTrading #WeatherRisk #AgWeather #Argentina
Argentina's soybean yields rely on weather during critical stages. CropProphet delivers actionable insights for grain traders and more.
👉 Try us today: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#CropProphet #Soybeans #GrainTrading #WeatherRisk #AgWeather #Argentina
Grain Traders use the CropProphet Yield Forecast System
The CropProphet Yield Forecast system helps grain traders increase profitability by quantifying the impact of weather on grain yields.
bit.ly
January 24, 2025 at 1:20 PM
🌾 Why CropProphet? 🌾
Argentina's soybean yields rely on weather during critical stages. CropProphet delivers actionable insights for grain traders and more.
👉 Try us today: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#CropProphet #Soybeans #GrainTrading #WeatherRisk #AgWeather #Argentina
Argentina's soybean yields rely on weather during critical stages. CropProphet delivers actionable insights for grain traders and more.
👉 Try us today: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#CropProphet #Soybeans #GrainTrading #WeatherRisk #AgWeather #Argentina
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Let's take a look at precip fcsts starting in Feb! The ECMWF and GEFS both fcst below normal #soybeans prod wghtd precip values for the 8-14 day range. The 8-14 day ECMWF fcsts the #soybeans prod wghtd precip to be 63% of nrml and the 8-14 day GEFS fcsts a value of 59% of nrml.
January 24, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Jan Dutton
#Soybean stage 2, the critical pod formation & grain filling period, is just around the corner in #Argentina! 🌱 Weather conditions in February & March will play a key role in determining yields. Stay ahead with insights tailored for grain traders. 📊
#GrainTraders #agwx #oatt
#GrainTraders #agwx #oatt
January 24, 2025 at 1:20 PM
#Soybean stage 2, the critical pod formation & grain filling period, is just around the corner in #Argentina! 🌱 Weather conditions in February & March will play a key role in determining yields. Stay ahead with insights tailored for grain traders. 📊
#GrainTraders #agwx #oatt
#GrainTraders #agwx #oatt
Quite the 7-day temperature anomaly map.
January 23, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Quite the 7-day temperature anomaly map.
Woohoo! Do I hear 37?
36 :)
January 13, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Woohoo! Do I hear 37?
+1. Thanks @jjrennie.bsky.social
Strange. I only have 32 followers. #AMS2025
January 12, 2025 at 1:56 PM
+1. Thanks @jjrennie.bsky.social
An early start (4:30 AM!!) for the trip
to #AMS2025, but it’s gonna be great.
Whose gonna be posting here about the meeting on Bsky rather than the other platform?
to #AMS2025, but it’s gonna be great.
Whose gonna be posting here about the meeting on Bsky rather than the other platform?
January 12, 2025 at 12:19 PM
An early start (4:30 AM!!) for the trip
to #AMS2025, but it’s gonna be great.
Whose gonna be posting here about the meeting on Bsky rather than the other platform?
to #AMS2025, but it’s gonna be great.
Whose gonna be posting here about the meeting on Bsky rather than the other platform?
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Quote from the US #natgas market:
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
January 10, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Quote from the US #natgas market:
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
Reposted by Jan Dutton
“Every foot of reduced water depth equates to 7,000 fewer soybean bushels per barge,” says Mike Steenhoek. Inspired by this, we analyzed 20 years of data and found surprising nuances: high water levels have an even greater impact on efficiency! Read more: www.cropprophet.com/how-mississi... 🌊🌾
January 10, 2025 at 4:19 PM
“Every foot of reduced water depth equates to 7,000 fewer soybean bushels per barge,” says Mike Steenhoek. Inspired by this, we analyzed 20 years of data and found surprising nuances: high water levels have an even greater impact on efficiency! Read more: www.cropprophet.com/how-mississi... 🌊🌾
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Using the @worldclimatesvc.bsky.social, the week 2 ECMWF probability forecast (valid Jan 14 - Jan 20) shows a dangerous combination of increased chances of drier than normal precip and warmer than normal 2m temps. What does week 3 look like (see below)?
#oatt #Argentina #agwx #GrainTraders
#oatt #Argentina #agwx #GrainTraders
January 8, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Using the @worldclimatesvc.bsky.social, the week 2 ECMWF probability forecast (valid Jan 14 - Jan 20) shows a dangerous combination of increased chances of drier than normal precip and warmer than normal 2m temps. What does week 3 look like (see below)?
#oatt #Argentina #agwx #GrainTraders
#oatt #Argentina #agwx #GrainTraders
This
Most conference presentations I've seen that miss the mark do so either by trying to do too much or by trying to be all things to all people.
Things that work better:
- A high-level summary (w/focus on results or some unique aspect like method)
- Delving into a single RQ in some depth
1/ #AMS2025
Things that work better:
- A high-level summary (w/focus on results or some unique aspect like method)
- Delving into a single RQ in some depth
1/ #AMS2025
December 19, 2024 at 4:15 PM
This
Reposted by Jan Dutton
On the other hand, Paraná, has experienced substantial above normal precipitation over the last 30 days. A wet forecast is projected to continue for Paraná over the next 14 days.
Try CP here: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
Try CP here: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
December 11, 2024 at 9:21 PM
On the other hand, Paraná, has experienced substantial above normal precipitation over the last 30 days. A wet forecast is projected to continue for Paraná over the next 14 days.
Try CP here: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
Try CP here: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
Reposted by Jan Dutton
For example, Mato Grosso has experienced the soybean prod wghtd precip to be ~86% of nrml. Over the next 14 days, the ECMWF is fcstng a slightly below normal Mato Grosso soybean prod wghtd precip value.
#MatoGrosso
#MatoGrosso
December 11, 2024 at 9:21 PM
For example, Mato Grosso has experienced the soybean prod wghtd precip to be ~86% of nrml. Over the next 14 days, the ECMWF is fcstng a slightly below normal Mato Grosso soybean prod wghtd precip value.
#MatoGrosso
#MatoGrosso
Reposted by Jan Dutton
Over the past 14 days, Brazil's soybean production-weighted precipitation hit 111% of normal. While overall above normal, key regions saw significantly below-normal rainfall. 🌱🇧🇷
#Soybeans #Brazil #AgWeather #oatt #agwx
#Soybeans #Brazil #AgWeather #oatt #agwx
December 11, 2024 at 9:21 PM
Over the past 14 days, Brazil's soybean production-weighted precipitation hit 111% of normal. While overall above normal, key regions saw significantly below-normal rainfall. 🌱🇧🇷
#Soybeans #Brazil #AgWeather #oatt #agwx
#Soybeans #Brazil #AgWeather #oatt #agwx