Jess Shand Smith
@jdshandsmith.bsky.social
🎶 I-I-I was bor-rn,
Under a wan'drin' spleen 🎵
Under a wan'drin' spleen 🎵
October 16, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Sorry I can't remember where I found this or find the original artist
August 3, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Sorry I can't remember where I found this or find the original artist
Less so as the 20th century goes on
July 27, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Less so as the 20th century goes on
A fascinating watch is "Year Hare Affair"* which is a Chinese propaganda-ish cartoon mostly about Chinese history with other countries in the 20th century. The different countries are represented by different animals and America is a little fat bald eagle
July 27, 2025 at 11:15 AM
A fascinating watch is "Year Hare Affair"* which is a Chinese propaganda-ish cartoon mostly about Chinese history with other countries in the 20th century. The different countries are represented by different animals and America is a little fat bald eagle
if you see this, quote with a robot that isn't from "star trek", "star wars", "dr who", or "transformers"
July 8, 2025 at 4:25 PM
if you see this, quote with a robot that isn't from "star trek", "star wars", "dr who", or "transformers"
Even if we adjust our figures to 99% Sensitivity the FPR stays about the same. Add 99% Specificity and your FPR only improves to 67%. That's at 99% accuracy, you're still excluding approx 2 cis women for every trans woman.
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Even if we adjust our figures to 99% Sensitivity the FPR stays about the same. Add 99% Specificity and your FPR only improves to 67%. That's at 99% accuracy, you're still excluding approx 2 cis women for every trans woman.
Positive predictive value is how likely a positive test result is to represent a patient with the condition (true positives divided by true positives plus false positives) and in our example that's 475 out of 5450 positive tests which is....oh no....oh shit...8.7%
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Positive predictive value is how likely a positive test result is to represent a patient with the condition (true positives divided by true positives plus false positives) and in our example that's 475 out of 5450 positive tests which is....oh no....oh shit...8.7%
So let's imagine the guards are both 95% sensitive and specific
Of our trans population 475 are detected and 25 get through (sensitivity 95%)
Of our cis population 94525 use the toilet as normal, but 4975 are turned away by the guards when they try (Specificity 95%)
Notice a problem here yet?
Of our trans population 475 are detected and 25 get through (sensitivity 95%)
Of our cis population 94525 use the toilet as normal, but 4975 are turned away by the guards when they try (Specificity 95%)
Notice a problem here yet?
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
So let's imagine the guards are both 95% sensitive and specific
Of our trans population 475 are detected and 25 get through (sensitivity 95%)
Of our cis population 94525 use the toilet as normal, but 4975 are turned away by the guards when they try (Specificity 95%)
Notice a problem here yet?
Of our trans population 475 are detected and 25 get through (sensitivity 95%)
Of our cis population 94525 use the toilet as normal, but 4975 are turned away by the guards when they try (Specificity 95%)
Notice a problem here yet?
"Specificity" (or "true negative rate") is how good your test is at excluding those who should be negative. True negatives divided by the tested population without the condition (true negatives plus false positives)
These are independent of the prevalence of tranicity in the population
These are independent of the prevalence of tranicity in the population
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
"Specificity" (or "true negative rate") is how good your test is at excluding those who should be negative. True negatives divided by the tested population without the condition (true negatives plus false positives)
These are independent of the prevalence of tranicity in the population
These are independent of the prevalence of tranicity in the population
"Sensitivity" (or "true positive rate") is how likely you are to detect the condition in the group who have it. Or in percentage terms the number of "true positives" divided by the number of the tested population with the condition (equal to true positives plus false negatives)
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
"Sensitivity" (or "true positive rate") is how likely you are to detect the condition in the group who have it. Or in percentage terms the number of "true positives" divided by the number of the tested population with the condition (equal to true positives plus false negatives)
To start let's take a figure for trans women as 0.5 percent of the woman population which is the ONS figure. Let's work with a total woman population of 100,000, 500 Trans and 99,500 Cis
June 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
To start let's take a figure for trans women as 0.5 percent of the woman population which is the ONS figure. Let's work with a total woman population of 100,000, 500 Trans and 99,500 Cis
Sensitivity
Specificity
Accuracy
Positive predictive value
Negative predictive value
and false positive rate
And the strange effects that emerge when the thing you're looking for is rare in the population you're testing
Specificity
Accuracy
Positive predictive value
Negative predictive value
and false positive rate
And the strange effects that emerge when the thing you're looking for is rare in the population you're testing
June 29, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Sensitivity
Specificity
Accuracy
Positive predictive value
Negative predictive value
and false positive rate
And the strange effects that emerge when the thing you're looking for is rare in the population you're testing
Specificity
Accuracy
Positive predictive value
Negative predictive value
and false positive rate
And the strange effects that emerge when the thing you're looking for is rare in the population you're testing
I will bring Clarity to the Republic!
June 15, 2025 at 7:28 PM
I will bring Clarity to the Republic!
You cannot appreciate Winnie the Pooh until you have watched him in the original Russian
April 11, 2025 at 10:48 PM
You cannot appreciate Winnie the Pooh until you have watched him in the original Russian
No! Bring back the Tunnans!
Reject slick modernity
Embrace tubbiness!
Reject slick modernity
Embrace tubbiness!
March 8, 2025 at 3:03 PM
No! Bring back the Tunnans!
Reject slick modernity
Embrace tubbiness!
Reject slick modernity
Embrace tubbiness!
There is an absolutely fucking dire article in the New Statesman this week by Andrew Marr trying to sell this
(I foolishly clicked through from x the everything app)
The great Liberal intellectuals of the UK are hopelessly unequipped to deal with the present situation
(I foolishly clicked through from x the everything app)
The great Liberal intellectuals of the UK are hopelessly unequipped to deal with the present situation
February 15, 2025 at 10:14 AM
There is an absolutely fucking dire article in the New Statesman this week by Andrew Marr trying to sell this
(I foolishly clicked through from x the everything app)
The great Liberal intellectuals of the UK are hopelessly unequipped to deal with the present situation
(I foolishly clicked through from x the everything app)
The great Liberal intellectuals of the UK are hopelessly unequipped to deal with the present situation
February 8, 2025 at 12:13 PM
