Jack Lucas
@jacklucas.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary https://lucasjacklucas.github.io/ | Co-Director, Canadian Municipal Barometer http://www.cmb-bmc.ca
The CMB Online Speakers Series is back! Jérémy Gilbert on Multilevel Climate Governance, Friday October 31st from 11:00am to 12:00pm (MT)/1:00pm to 2:00pm (ET). Email me or @nicolemcmahon.bsky.social for the link if you'd like to join!
October 23, 2025 at 5:46 PM
The CMB Online Speakers Series is back! Jérémy Gilbert on Multilevel Climate Governance, Friday October 31st from 11:00am to 12:00pm (MT)/1:00pm to 2:00pm (ET). Email me or @nicolemcmahon.bsky.social for the link if you'd like to join!
...and here are the feeling scores from the same survey respondents for the provincial parties. The averages are similar to the municipal parties, but notice the polarization in the distributions. Far fewer choose the middle option (5), and more (around one fifth) choose (0) for "strongly dislike."
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
...and here are the feeling scores from the same survey respondents for the provincial parties. The averages are similar to the municipal parties, but notice the polarization in the distributions. Far fewer choose the middle option (5), and more (around one fifth) choose (0) for "strongly dislike."
...here are the feeling thermometer scores for the municipal parties, with the averages at the top, and then the full distribution down below. Notice that many, many respondents choose five on this scale, which in this setting is a bit like the survey-response equivalent of the shrug emoji (🤷).
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
...here are the feeling thermometer scores for the municipal parties, with the averages at the top, and then the full distribution down below. Notice that many, many respondents choose five on this scale, which in this setting is a bit like the survey-response equivalent of the shrug emoji (🤷).
Finally, municipal political parties. Calgarians have mixed views. Overwhelming majorities prefer independent candidates (the questions in the top row). But many also recognize the benefits of municipal parties, especially in the information they provide to voters (bottom centre and bottom right).
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Finally, municipal political parties. Calgarians have mixed views. Overwhelming majorities prefer independent candidates (the questions in the top row). But many also recognize the benefits of municipal parties, especially in the information they provide to voters (bottom centre and bottom right).
OK, OK, I hear you saying — enough about ideology! Fine. How about some data on policy? Here's support for nine policy statements among Calgarians (in blue) and among supporters of each mayoral candidate (in black). Clear polarization on some issues. Striking ambivalence across the housing items.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
OK, OK, I hear you saying — enough about ideology! Fine. How about some data on policy? Here's support for nine policy statements among Calgarians (in blue) and among supporters of each mayoral candidate (in black). Clear polarization on some issues. Striking ambivalence across the housing items.
Here's the proportion of Calgarians who supported each mayoral candidate, by their provincial party identity. Gondek and Sharp look like mirror images of each other in terms of NDP/UCP support, whereas Farkas enjoys at least *some* support among all of the partisan identities.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Here's the proportion of Calgarians who supported each mayoral candidate, by their provincial party identity. Gondek and Sharp look like mirror images of each other in terms of NDP/UCP support, whereas Farkas enjoys at least *some* support among all of the partisan identities.
While we're on the subject of ideology, here's the probability of support for each candidate, conditional on Calgarians' own ideological self-placements. There's a strong relationship between ideology and support. But notice the higher support for Farkas on the left, in contrast to Davison/Sharp.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
While we're on the subject of ideology, here's the probability of support for each candidate, conditional on Calgarians' own ideological self-placements. There's a strong relationship between ideology and support. But notice the higher support for Farkas on the left, in contrast to Davison/Sharp.
How have these perceptions shifted? This has been an important question in this election, especially for Farkas, and we can use 2021 CMES data to compare. According to Calgarians, Farkas has shifted dramatically to the centre, Davison has moved rightward, and Gondek has moved leftward.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
How have these perceptions shifted? This has been an important question in this election, especially for Farkas, and we can use 2021 CMES data to compare. According to Calgarians, Farkas has shifted dramatically to the centre, Davison has moved rightward, and Gondek has moved leftward.
Here's the average left-right placement for each candidate. Remember: these are Calgarians' perceptions; they may not align with how the candidates think of themselves. On average, Calgarians put Sharp, Davison, and Farkas on the right, Thiessen left of centre, and Gondek on the far left.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Here's the average left-right placement for each candidate. Remember: these are Calgarians' perceptions; they may not align with how the candidates think of themselves. On average, Calgarians put Sharp, Davison, and Farkas on the right, Thiessen left of centre, and Gondek on the far left.
Now some results related to ideology. Here's how Calgarians placed each major mayoral candidate on the left-right spectrum. The most striking result to me: more than one fifth of Calgarians now place Jyoti Gondek at the most extreme left-wing position on the scale.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Now some results related to ideology. Here's how Calgarians placed each major mayoral candidate on the left-right spectrum. The most striking result to me: more than one fifth of Calgarians now place Jyoti Gondek at the most extreme left-wing position on the scale.
We'll know soon enough (I hope!) who Calgarians voted for in the mayoral race. But what about the candidates who Calgarians would NOT vote for? Here are the patterns of "negative voting" — the people for whom Calgarians would NOT vote — organized by supporters of each major mayoral candidate.
October 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
We'll know soon enough (I hope!) who Calgarians voted for in the mayoral race. But what about the candidates who Calgarians would NOT vote for? Here are the patterns of "negative voting" — the people for whom Calgarians would NOT vote — organized by supporters of each major mayoral candidate.
We have a cover layout...blurbs and all! Very excited about this book: 320 pages of pure urban politics goodness. Coming in December. Co-edited with Martin Horak and @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social. utppublishing.com/doi/book/10....
October 15, 2025 at 5:51 PM
We have a cover layout...blurbs and all! Very excited about this book: 320 pages of pure urban politics goodness. Coming in December. Co-edited with Martin Horak and @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social. utppublishing.com/doi/book/10....
"Place Types." Excited that this paper with @sborwein.bsky.social is now available. We develop a new typology of place types in Canada at a fairly fine-grained level of geography, and then show how these place types relate to Canadian politics. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
June 11, 2025 at 2:18 PM
"Place Types." Excited that this paper with @sborwein.bsky.social is now available. We develop a new typology of place types in Canada at a fairly fine-grained level of geography, and then show how these place types relate to Canadian politics. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Excited to share a new working paper, co-authored with students in my undergraduate course on city politics. As part of the course, we did a field experiment to explore if (a) 311 calls increase issue responsiveness and (b) if this varies by neighbourhood.
lucasjacklucas.github.io/calgary311.pdf
lucasjacklucas.github.io/calgary311.pdf
May 9, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Excited to share a new working paper, co-authored with students in my undergraduate course on city politics. As part of the course, we did a field experiment to explore if (a) 311 calls increase issue responsiveness and (b) if this varies by neighbourhood.
lucasjacklucas.github.io/calgary311.pdf
lucasjacklucas.github.io/calgary311.pdf
Tonight’s most important question: will the anecdote that opens our article on the urban-rural divide survive another election cycle?
April 28, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Tonight’s most important question: will the anecdote that opens our article on the urban-rural divide survive another election cycle?
Canadian Municipal Barometer online research talk next week. Should be fun! If you'd like to attend, send me an email and I'll share the link.
April 17, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Canadian Municipal Barometer online research talk next week. Should be fun! If you'd like to attend, send me an email and I'll share the link.
"Geographic Proximity Dampens Ideological Disagreement on Municipal Policy Issues." New working paper with Martin Horak, Shanaya Vanhooren, and Dave Armstrong. Comments and feedback welcome! A brief description of what we're up to…
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
April 9, 2025 at 6:55 PM
"Geographic Proximity Dampens Ideological Disagreement on Municipal Policy Issues." New working paper with Martin Horak, Shanaya Vanhooren, and Dave Armstrong. Comments and feedback welcome! A brief description of what we're up to…
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
The remarkable case, as many others have noted, is the NDP. Just massively below historical numbers.
April 3, 2025 at 5:01 PM
The remarkable case, as many others have noted, is the NDP. Just massively below historical numbers.
Here's the same plot for the Conservatives. They're actually doing very well relative to historical vote intention.
April 3, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Here's the same plot for the Conservatives. They're actually doing very well relative to historical vote intention.
This new R package makes it easy to extract weighted annual estimates of vote intention for the major parties going back to the 1940s. For instance, here's annual vote intention for the Liberals, with a red line marking where they currently stand in the polls according to the 338 aggregator.
April 3, 2025 at 5:01 PM
This new R package makes it easy to extract weighted annual estimates of vote intention for the major parties going back to the 1940s. For instance, here's annual vote intention for the Liberals, with a red line marking where they currently stand in the polls according to the 338 aggregator.
New paper on urban-rural policy divides. We use 456 unique issue questions from 1993-present to show (1) large & persistent urban-rural issue divides, (2) especially large divides in cultural policy, and (3) no evidence that divides have grown over time. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
March 22, 2025 at 9:28 PM
New paper on urban-rural policy divides. We use 456 unique issue questions from 1993-present to show (1) large & persistent urban-rural issue divides, (2) especially large divides in cultural policy, and (3) no evidence that divides have grown over time. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Coming up next week in the CMB Online Research series: Very interesting paper by @kaylynjschiff.bsky.social on AI in local government. Email me if you'd like to attend, and I'll share a link!
March 6, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Coming up next week in the CMB Online Research series: Very interesting paper by @kaylynjschiff.bsky.social on AI in local government. Email me if you'd like to attend, and I'll share a link!
Another terrific talk coming up on Friday in the Canadian Municipal Barometer online research workshop, featuring @erintolley.bsky.social and
@tariajadi.bsky.social. Send me an email if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link.
@tariajadi.bsky.social. Send me an email if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link.
February 24, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Another terrific talk coming up on Friday in the Canadian Municipal Barometer online research workshop, featuring @erintolley.bsky.social and
@tariajadi.bsky.social. Send me an email if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link.
@tariajadi.bsky.social. Send me an email if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link.
Excited for this talk next week by @katherineeinst.bsky.social in the Canadian Municipal Barometer's online research workshop. Sure to be extremely interesting! Email me if you'd like to attend and I'll send the link.
January 24, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Excited for this talk next week by @katherineeinst.bsky.social in the Canadian Municipal Barometer's online research workshop. Sure to be extremely interesting! Email me if you'd like to attend and I'll send the link.
Very excited to be hosting Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776.bsky.social) next week for the first talk in our new "Local Democracy: Comparative Perspectives" series. If you're in the area and you'd like to attend, email me for the details. Many thanks to UofC Faculty of Arts for supporting this series!
December 3, 2024 at 12:56 AM
Very excited to be hosting Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776.bsky.social) next week for the first talk in our new "Local Democracy: Comparative Perspectives" series. If you're in the area and you'd like to attend, email me for the details. Many thanks to UofC Faculty of Arts for supporting this series!