Howard Schneider
@hpschneider.bsky.social
Reuters Federal Reserve correspondent by way of Washington Post, Philly Daily News, UMD Diamondback and others. Maryland native but hosting wild turkeys and deer in South Carolina. Comments and persimmons are my own.
I love my firepit but some transitions can't be resisted. I am not sure how well many of us would do in an economy with a 30% firewood GDP....
Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010.
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
June 30, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I love my firepit but some transitions can't be resisted. I am not sure how well many of us would do in an economy with a 30% firewood GDP....
@steveliesman.bsky.social did a bit of a reality check on the shadow fed notion with Goolsbee. Lots of sentiment pointing to more risk than reward for this idea. Markets are unpredictable. You have no vote, and you'd need to sway the Goolsbees of the world in place of the actual chair...
Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of tariff uncertainty, rate path outlook, and mo...
www.cnbc.com
June 26, 2025 at 2:31 PM
@steveliesman.bsky.social did a bit of a reality check on the shadow fed notion with Goolsbee. Lots of sentiment pointing to more risk than reward for this idea. Markets are unpredictable. You have no vote, and you'd need to sway the Goolsbees of the world in place of the actual chair...
I get the attraction of this idea…But if you become a “shadow chair” what can you do to actually influence outcomes? You have no vote; markets may put some weight on your words but will mostly care about outcomes; meanwhile you have x months to make mistakes….
NEW: President Trump’s exasperation over the Federal Reserve’s take-it-slow approach to cutting interest rates is prompting him to consider accelerating when he will announce his pick to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs for another 11 months www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Exclusive | Trump Considers Naming Next Fed Chair Early in Bid to Undermine Powell
Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent are among those under consideration as Trump evaluates their commitment to cutting rates—and ‘made-for-TV’ appeal.
www.wsj.com
June 26, 2025 at 12:18 AM
I get the attraction of this idea…But if you become a “shadow chair” what can you do to actually influence outcomes? You have no vote; markets may put some weight on your words but will mostly care about outcomes; meanwhile you have x months to make mistakes….
No beehives at the Eccles building. Glad to clear that up.
June 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM
No beehives at the Eccles building. Glad to clear that up.
Powell ahead of Fin Services committee hearing...rates going nowhere fast....tariff inflation still a risk....need more time to know the policy and know the effects.... #econsky
Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank needs more time to see if rising tariffs drive inflation higher before considering the interest rate cuts that President Donald Trump is demanding.
www.reuters.com
June 24, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Powell ahead of Fin Services committee hearing...rates going nowhere fast....tariff inflation still a risk....need more time to know the policy and know the effects.... #econsky
Powell's on the Hill today amid chatter about Trump naming a "shadow" chair. But naming someone and giving them months to make a misstep with markets or the senate seems risky...Meanwhile Fed rotation means the president may only have one more board appointment coming... #econsky
Powell is staying at the Fed, with Trump appointments possibly limited
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of congressional testimony on Tuesday under fire from President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates but with his status as head of the central bank seemingly secured from any presidential action by a Supreme Court ruling last month.
www.reuters.com
June 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Powell's on the Hill today amid chatter about Trump naming a "shadow" chair. But naming someone and giving them months to make a misstep with markets or the senate seems risky...Meanwhile Fed rotation means the president may only have one more board appointment coming... #econsky
Liberation Day?
US Supreme Court says Fed is unique, easing worries over Trump's ability to fire Powell
Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Jerome Powell and said he wants to see him gone from the central bank.
www.reuters.com
June 20, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Liberation Day?
The other side of the bimodal FED….
Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday there's no rush to cut interest rates given the still-unresolved risk that new import taxes might raise inflation, and with the U.S. job market and consumer spending holding up.
www.reuters.com
June 20, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The other side of the bimodal FED….
And meanwhile...Is this the shadow shadow rate? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
Fed's Waller: Rate cuts should be considered by July given inflation data - CNBC
The Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting given recent tame inflation data and the fact that any price shock from import tariffs will be short-lived, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday.
www.reuters.com
June 20, 2025 at 4:13 PM
And meanwhile...Is this the shadow shadow rate? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
Reality check or mark to market...either ways... www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks
Trump's promise that "the golden age of America begins right now" remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate.
www.reuters.com
June 20, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Reality check or mark to market...either ways... www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Well this I guess is not surprising but depressing still....The double polarization whammy from AI + social media from Nobel winner Acemoglu et al...
AI and Social Media: A Political Economy Perspective
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
urldefense.com
June 16, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Well this I guess is not surprising but depressing still....The double polarization whammy from AI + social media from Nobel winner Acemoglu et al...
Add a possible commodity shock to the Fed's list of arguments to stay on hold for now...Energy index falling for four months and now?? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
Fed to keep rates steady as tariffs, possible oil shock counter inflation data
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, with investors focused on new central bank projections that will show how much weight policymakers are putting on recent soft data and how much risk they attach to unresolved trade and budget issues and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
www.reuters.com
June 13, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Add a possible commodity shock to the Fed's list of arguments to stay on hold for now...Energy index falling for four months and now?? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
The Fed May meeting (minutes released today) was overtaken fast by the China tariff climbdown. But the import may be a)they penciled in very deep effects and that remains a risk until the final tariff schedule is known...b)they took the market vol to heart even if they were not close to intervening.
Fed minutes saw rising inflation, jobless risks as of May meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment, an outlook buttressed by Fed staff projections of increased risks of a recession, according to newly released minutes of the May 6-7 session.
www.reuters.com
May 28, 2025 at 7:41 PM
The Fed May meeting (minutes released today) was overtaken fast by the China tariff climbdown. But the import may be a)they penciled in very deep effects and that remains a risk until the final tariff schedule is known...b)they took the market vol to heart even if they were not close to intervening.
Some fun maps and varying estimates....Someday they will have actual numbers to use for estimation but for now laying the groundwork...
Trump's tariff blitz prompts 'firefighting' response from Fed researchers
U.S. Federal Reserve staffers have scrambled since January to decipher what Trump administration trade policies will mean for the economy, with published tallies of potential income losses, inflation estimates running as much as 2 percentage points higher, and breakdowns showing state-by-state winners and losers.
www.reuters.com
May 27, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Some fun maps and varying estimates....Someday they will have actual numbers to use for estimation but for now laying the groundwork...
Was a time not too many years ago when Yellen and others talked about this as a thing -- find ways to destigmatize occupations in both directions...Don't here much about that anymore...BLS 10 yr job projections don't show the below trend slowing.....
Working-class American men are struggling: wages are stagnant, employment is down, and they’re avoiding fast-growing “HEAL” jobs (health, education, administration, literacy), largely held by women. While women enter traditionally male-dominated fields, men are retreating from “HEAL” opportunities.
May 22, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Was a time not too many years ago when Yellen and others talked about this as a thing -- find ways to destigmatize occupations in both directions...Don't here much about that anymore...BLS 10 yr job projections don't show the below trend slowing.....
Interesting how quick these folks piled on Bernanke’s proposal…and it will be interesting to see what they come up with as a substitute….
Plan to beef up Fed forecasts hits hurdle among its regional presidents
A proposal for the U.S. Federal Reserve to release detailed economic forecasts after some of its meetings to anchor the discussion of monetary policy is drawing fire from the heads of its regional banks who worry it will be hard to agree on a common outlook and risks further confusing the public.
www.reuters.com
May 22, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Interesting how quick these folks piled on Bernanke’s proposal…and it will be interesting to see what they come up with as a substitute….
is “no” allowed? there’s a reason they try to overlook commodities.
Have tumbling oil prices undone the Federal Reserve’s tariff conundrum?
sherwood.news/markets/have...
Thought provoking stuff from @renmacllc.bsky.social also featuring the great @pd-williams.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social.
sherwood.news/markets/have...
Thought provoking stuff from @renmacllc.bsky.social also featuring the great @pd-williams.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social.
Have tumbling oil prices undone the Federal Reserve’s tariff conundrum?
A negative supply shock from tariffs looms, but we’ve already gotten a positive supply shock from falling energy prices....
sherwood.news
May 17, 2025 at 1:57 AM
is “no” allowed? there’s a reason they try to overlook commodities.
Baby, meet bathwater… Fed’s Powell oversaw a load of changes to their strategy. Inflation cast it all in a different light. Review is underway as
Powell enters his likely last year as chair….
Powell enters his likely last year as chair….
Powell's lean to job market under microscope as Fed revisits strategy
With mounting evidence that tight labor markets do not necessarily boost inflation and facing massive job losses in 2020, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell oversaw a shift in U.S. central bank strategy that put more weight on the goal of full employment and pledged not to use a low jobless rate as a reason in itself to raise interest rates.
www.reuters.com
May 15, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Baby, meet bathwater… Fed’s Powell oversaw a load of changes to their strategy. Inflation cast it all in a different light. Review is underway as
Powell enters his likely last year as chair….
Powell enters his likely last year as chair….
they’ve all hit on variations of this theme…They are handcuffed until Trump decides what economic world we are living in….
Fed's Musalem: Should not commit to rate cuts until tariff impact becomes certain reut.rs/3EMhKwt
Fed's Musalem: Should not commit to rate cuts until tariff impact becomes certain
The Fed should not commit to further interest rate cuts until it is clear whether the Trump administration's tariff policies lead to persistent inflation or a less serious, one-time adjustment in prices, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday.
reut.rs
May 10, 2025 at 12:12 AM
they’ve all hit on variations of this theme…They are handcuffed until Trump decides what economic world we are living in….
A lot of Trump signs in our part of SC that just now got fiber to the home…I will say that two Starlink accounts got ditched the next day in my extended family, and ATT fixed wireless lost some business also. Was the Rural Electrification Act also woke?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
Trump Declares High-Speed Internet Program ‘Racist’ and ‘Unconstitutional’
www.nytimes.com
May 9, 2025 at 12:26 PM
A lot of Trump signs in our part of SC that just now got fiber to the home…I will say that two Starlink accounts got ditched the next day in my extended family, and ATT fixed wireless lost some business also. Was the Rural Electrification Act also woke?
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
fiber optic to rural south carolina…goodbye att fixed and starlink…been cobbling from both for a long time
April 28, 2025 at 1:18 PM
fiber optic to rural south carolina…goodbye att fixed and starlink…been cobbling from both for a long time
From Cleveland Fed....Household willingness to trade unemployment for low inflation is pretty limited it turns out...Implies some politically challenging decisions ahead...
Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
We document novel facts about US household preferences over inflation and monetary policy tradeoffs. Many households were attentive to news about monetary policy and to interest rates in 2023. The med...
www.clevelandfed.org
April 24, 2025 at 1:22 PM
From Cleveland Fed....Household willingness to trade unemployment for low inflation is pretty limited it turns out...Implies some politically challenging decisions ahead...
Even if Trump doesn't try to fire Powell there's a transition coming to an institution that has been a mainstay of global finance... www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Fed at a policy, political crossroads poses global risks
Global central bankers who have come to view the U.S. Federal Reserve as a source of stability now face an unpredictable period where the Fed's monetary policy decisions are being pulled in conflicting directions and the institution's independence could be at risk.
www.reuters.com
April 23, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Even if Trump doesn't try to fire Powell there's a transition coming to an institution that has been a mainstay of global finance... www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Latest BBook from the Fed is about as close as you'll get to a blood bath in an institutional document...Pretty relentless -- even the bright spots are discounted with a dour outlook... www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
www.federalreserve.gov
April 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Latest BBook from the Fed is about as close as you'll get to a blood bath in an institutional document...Pretty relentless -- even the bright spots are discounted with a dour outlook... www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
Dont know about other dads but I put the training wheels on and took them off when it was risk-appropriate. Meanwhile my wife had them galloping on horses without ever putting the training wheels on even. Every risky family is risky in its own way…
April 23, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Dont know about other dads but I put the training wheels on and took them off when it was risk-appropriate. Meanwhile my wife had them galloping on horses without ever putting the training wheels on even. Every risky family is risky in its own way…