John Horvick
@horvick.bsky.social
DHM Research, Senior Vice President
The measure that has flipped is the Lincoln County veterans' service office levy. "Yes" is now up by 20 votes.
November 13, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The measure that has flipped is the Lincoln County veterans' service office levy. "Yes" is now up by 20 votes.
Updated local funding measure tracking.
Since election night, one measure has changed from failing to passing. Now, 19 of 30 local funding measures are passing.
Since election night, one measure has changed from failing to passing. Now, 19 of 30 local funding measures are passing.
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Updated local funding measure tracking.
Since election night, one measure has changed from failing to passing. Now, 19 of 30 local funding measures are passing.
Since election night, one measure has changed from failing to passing. Now, 19 of 30 local funding measures are passing.
The share of the total Democratic vote for governor in the counties won by Tina Kotek: 1930 to 2022.
Washington County is darker orange.
Washington County is darker orange.
November 11, 2025 at 10:59 PM
The share of the total Democratic vote for governor in the counties won by Tina Kotek: 1930 to 2022.
Washington County is darker orange.
Washington County is darker orange.
Percent of veterans by Oregon House of Representatives district
November 11, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Percent of veterans by Oregon House of Representatives district
President Trump's approval ratings from the big poll aggregators. A clear turn for the worse since the shutdown.
November 7, 2025 at 3:33 PM
President Trump's approval ratings from the big poll aggregators. A clear turn for the worse since the shutdown.
The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom).
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
November 7, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom).
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom).
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
November 7, 2025 at 3:20 PM
The partisan changes in consumer sentiment this month are more the result of declines in perceptions of current conditions (top) than expectations about the future (bottom).
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
On all these measures, Independents now look much more like Democrats than Republicans.
Updated consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan are out today.
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Democrat 33.2 (-2,7)
Independent 45.0 (-4.5)
Republican 91.9 (-5.3)
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Democrat 33.2 (-2,7)
Independent 45.0 (-4.5)
Republican 91.9 (-5.3)
November 7, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Updated consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan are out today.
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Democrat 33.2 (-2,7)
Independent 45.0 (-4.5)
Republican 91.9 (-5.3)
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Democrat 33.2 (-2,7)
Independent 45.0 (-4.5)
Republican 91.9 (-5.3)
Oregon's November registration totals are out today from the Secretary of State.
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Total +6,917
Non-affiliated +6,268
Ind. Party of Oregon +638
Other +232
Republican -19
Democrat -202
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Total +6,917
Non-affiliated +6,268
Ind. Party of Oregon +638
Other +232
Republican -19
Democrat -202
November 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Oregon's November registration totals are out today from the Secretary of State.
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Total +6,917
Non-affiliated +6,268
Ind. Party of Oregon +638
Other +232
Republican -19
Democrat -202
Here are the monthly changes by party.
Total +6,917
Non-affiliated +6,268
Ind. Party of Oregon +638
Other +232
Republican -19
Democrat -202
By my count, 18 of 30 local funding measures in Oregon are passing as of election night.
November 5, 2025 at 5:09 AM
By my count, 18 of 30 local funding measures in Oregon are passing as of election night.
Since 1983, the president's party has lost the VA governor's election 10 of 11 times.
November 5, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Since 1983, the president's party has lost the VA governor's election 10 of 11 times.
The Portland parks levy is currently passing with 53% yes.
In 2020, it passed with 64% yes.
Here are precinct comparisons for the current results (left) vs. 2020 (right).
In 2020, it passed with 64% yes.
Here are precinct comparisons for the current results (left) vs. 2020 (right).
November 5, 2025 at 4:22 AM
The Portland parks levy is currently passing with 53% yes.
In 2020, it passed with 64% yes.
Here are precinct comparisons for the current results (left) vs. 2020 (right).
In 2020, it passed with 64% yes.
Here are precinct comparisons for the current results (left) vs. 2020 (right).
The Major Cities Chiefs Association today released its violent crime comparisons for the first three quarters of 2025 vs. 2024.
Violent crime declined in most cities. It declined 5% in Portland.
Violent crime declined in most cities. It declined 5% in Portland.
November 4, 2025 at 1:32 AM
The Major Cities Chiefs Association today released its violent crime comparisons for the first three quarters of 2025 vs. 2024.
Violent crime declined in most cities. It declined 5% in Portland.
Violent crime declined in most cities. It declined 5% in Portland.
Some recent history for those watching the Portland parks levy vote.
Support for local tax measures and progressive candidates and issues has increased from the first ballot counts to the final results.
Support for local tax measures and progressive candidates and issues has increased from the first ballot counts to the final results.
November 3, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Some recent history for those watching the Portland parks levy vote.
Support for local tax measures and progressive candidates and issues has increased from the first ballot counts to the final results.
Support for local tax measures and progressive candidates and issues has increased from the first ballot counts to the final results.
Percent of households receiving food stamps/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by Oregon House of Representatives district (2025)
November 1, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Percent of households receiving food stamps/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by Oregon House of Representatives district (2025)
Is Oregon's combination of automatic voter registration, in which new registrants are defaulted into NAV, and closed partisan primaries working? And how long can it be sustained without changes?
If not changed, how should the SoS address the fact that young voters are overwhelmingly NAV?
If not changed, how should the SoS address the fact that young voters are overwhelmingly NAV?
October 31, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Is Oregon's combination of automatic voter registration, in which new registrants are defaulted into NAV, and closed partisan primaries working? And how long can it be sustained without changes?
If not changed, how should the SoS address the fact that young voters are overwhelmingly NAV?
If not changed, how should the SoS address the fact that young voters are overwhelmingly NAV?
In the year 2025, why does SoS search pages for candidates, measures, etc. kick you out if you have more than one tab open? (Or sometimes when it just thinks you do.)
October 31, 2025 at 8:34 PM
In the year 2025, why does SoS search pages for candidates, measures, etc. kick you out if you have more than one tab open? (Or sometimes when it just thinks you do.)
What is the status of the Oregon Election Modernization Project?
This was the status posted late last year. Updates used to be linked to on the SoS "Voting and Election" page. I can no longer find it.
x.com/horvick/stat...
This was the status posted late last year. Updates used to be linked to on the SoS "Voting and Election" page. I can no longer find it.
x.com/horvick/stat...
October 31, 2025 at 8:31 PM
What is the status of the Oregon Election Modernization Project?
This was the status posted late last year. Updates used to be linked to on the SoS "Voting and Election" page. I can no longer find it.
x.com/horvick/stat...
This was the status posted late last year. Updates used to be linked to on the SoS "Voting and Election" page. I can no longer find it.
x.com/horvick/stat...
Precinct results for the 2020 Portland parks levy.
An increase of the parks levy is on the ballot this election.
An increase of the parks levy is on the ballot this election.
October 31, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Precinct results for the 2020 Portland parks levy.
An increase of the parks levy is on the ballot this election.
An increase of the parks levy is on the ballot this election.
Percent drivers of color
October 30, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Percent drivers of color
Today, the Portland Police Bureau released the 2025 Q3 traffic stop report.
PPB recorded 5,705 traffic stops. 48% of stops were of drivers of color.
(Larger images to follow)
PPB recorded 5,705 traffic stops. 48% of stops were of drivers of color.
(Larger images to follow)
October 30, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Today, the Portland Police Bureau released the 2025 Q3 traffic stop report.
PPB recorded 5,705 traffic stops. 48% of stops were of drivers of color.
(Larger images to follow)
PPB recorded 5,705 traffic stops. 48% of stops were of drivers of color.
(Larger images to follow)
New from @pewresearch.org: the share of Americans who agree with the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans.
Republicans' greatest advantages are crime and immigration. Democrats' greatest advantages are health care and the environment/climate.
They are about even on the economy.
Republicans' greatest advantages are crime and immigration. Democrats' greatest advantages are health care and the environment/climate.
They are about even on the economy.
October 30, 2025 at 5:43 PM
New from @pewresearch.org: the share of Americans who agree with the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans.
Republicans' greatest advantages are crime and immigration. Democrats' greatest advantages are health care and the environment/climate.
They are about even on the economy.
Republicans' greatest advantages are crime and immigration. Democrats' greatest advantages are health care and the environment/climate.
They are about even on the economy.
Same trend for presidential vote
October 28, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Same trend for presidential vote
Democratic gubernatorial vote in Oregon counties: 1930 - 2022
October 28, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Democratic gubernatorial vote in Oregon counties: 1930 - 2022