_ michael
@hashchange.bsky.social
"A personal friend?" inquired the Vogon, who had heard the expression somewhere once and decided to try it out.
Welcome to my social-network self.
🔗 www.zeilenwechsel.de
Welcome to my social-network self.
🔗 www.zeilenwechsel.de
MAGA meddling in Ukraine, according to @tatarigami.bsky.social. Sounds plausible, lacks evidence, but definitely one to watch
x.com
November 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
MAGA meddling in Ukraine, according to @tatarigami.bsky.social. Sounds plausible, lacks evidence, but definitely one to watch
This is Nord Stream 2, Asian edition. For Taiwan, its leading role in semiconductors is a matter of national security. Weakening its role in the supply chain makes sense from a purely American perspective. But it paves the way for Chinese aggression.
x.com
November 29, 2025 at 9:40 AM
This is Nord Stream 2, Asian edition. For Taiwan, its leading role in semiconductors is a matter of national security. Weakening its role in the supply chain makes sense from a purely American perspective. But it paves the way for Chinese aggression.
The US peace plan aims to limit the size of Ukraine's military to 600.000 troops. Many seem to think that this limit is dangerously low - a claim repeated by European governments. But that is nonsense. 1/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The US peace plan aims to limit the size of Ukraine's military to 600.000 troops. Many seem to think that this limit is dangerously low - a claim repeated by European governments. But that is nonsense. 1/
There has been a lot of confusion about the US peace plan and what its status is. The administration has presented it as its non-negotiable offer (Driscoll), as a Russian proposal (Rubio I), an early-stage US proposal (Rubio II), and a mix of all of these (Trump). Which is it? 1/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
There has been a lot of confusion about the US peace plan and what its status is. The administration has presented it as its non-negotiable offer (Driscoll), as a Russian proposal (Rubio I), an early-stage US proposal (Rubio II), and a mix of all of these (Trump). Which is it? 1/
One of the more puzzling provisions in the US peace plan is the agreement to station "European fighter jets" in Poland. Interpretations of that are all over the place. It has variously been taken to mean: 1/
November 22, 2025 at 11:40 AM
One of the more puzzling provisions in the US peace plan is the agreement to station "European fighter jets" in Poland. Interpretations of that are all over the place. It has variously been taken to mean: 1/
J.D. Vance seems to be the driving force behind the US peace plan. Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, whom the administration picked to discuss the plan with the Ukrainians and who is set to meet with the Russians at a later stage, is a close ally of Vance. 1/2
November 21, 2025 at 4:24 PM
J.D. Vance seems to be the driving force behind the US peace plan. Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, whom the administration picked to discuss the plan with the Ukrainians and who is set to meet with the Russians at a later stage, is a close ally of Vance. 1/2
Excellent point about how sanctions could amplify the effect of lower oil prices. It's all about separating the hit on Russian revenue from that on other suppliers. But ...
x.com
April 5, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Excellent point about how sanctions could amplify the effect of lower oil prices. It's all about separating the hit on Russian revenue from that on other suppliers. But ...
A global recession, kicked off by the Trump tariffs, and the accompanying drop in oil prices might hit Putin's war chest harder than the sanctions that came before it. Great, as long as you don't consider the price
Slumping oil prices reflect intensifying economic worries.
www.nytimes.com
April 4, 2025 at 12:42 PM
A global recession, kicked off by the Trump tariffs, and the accompanying drop in oil prices might hit Putin's war chest harder than the sanctions that came before it. Great, as long as you don't consider the price
Trump admin personnel, buckets (alphabetical):
- Foreign-policy hawks
- Golf buddies
- MAGA nutcases (performative)
- MAGA nutcases (real)
- Pro-level sycophants
- Radical right
- Randos from TV
- Richest men in the world
Have I missed anything? Better classification system?
- Foreign-policy hawks
- Golf buddies
- MAGA nutcases (performative)
- MAGA nutcases (real)
- Pro-level sycophants
- Radical right
- Randos from TV
- Richest men in the world
Have I missed anything? Better classification system?
April 4, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Trump admin personnel, buckets (alphabetical):
- Foreign-policy hawks
- Golf buddies
- MAGA nutcases (performative)
- MAGA nutcases (real)
- Pro-level sycophants
- Radical right
- Randos from TV
- Richest men in the world
Have I missed anything? Better classification system?
- Foreign-policy hawks
- Golf buddies
- MAGA nutcases (performative)
- MAGA nutcases (real)
- Pro-level sycophants
- Radical right
- Randos from TV
- Richest men in the world
Have I missed anything? Better classification system?
Another one bites the dust, this time Timothy Haugh, the NSA director and head of US Cyber Command. Eventually, the MAGA faction is going to go after the guys in the top tier: The firings are a bad omen for Waltz, obviously, but also for Rubio. ...
A "bloodbath" in the NSC is under way, according to reporting by Axios. This is significant. The purge might shift the balance inside the Trump administration further towards those who want to cozy up to Putin and confront, rather than support, Ukraine. Bad news for Nato, too.
Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit
A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"
www.axios.com
April 4, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Another one bites the dust, this time Timothy Haugh, the NSA director and head of US Cyber Command. Eventually, the MAGA faction is going to go after the guys in the top tier: The firings are a bad omen for Waltz, obviously, but also for Rubio. ...
Reposted by _ michael
More evidence that the impact of Trump's tariffs on the EU is going to be limited. Note that this is a *long-term* projection, short-term pain is a different matter. It also doesn't factor in policies like the fiscal stimulus in defence and infrastructure.
Davide Oneglia on X: "Some respectable models suggest the long-term hit for EU growth should be contained. See e.g. @ernietedeschi and @The_Budget_Lab 's work here: 2/ https://t.co/NwFWdGR9JO https://t.co/pqROiH1x4d" / X
Some respectable models suggest the long-term hit for EU growth should be contained. See e.g. @ernietedeschi and @The_Budget_Lab 's work here: 2/ https://t.co/NwFWdGR9JO https://t.co/pqROiH1x4d
x.com
April 4, 2025 at 9:09 AM
More evidence that the impact of Trump's tariffs on the EU is going to be limited. Note that this is a *long-term* projection, short-term pain is a different matter. It also doesn't factor in policies like the fiscal stimulus in defence and infrastructure.
Europe seems to be beleaguered from all sides: Trump undermines and threatens to disengage from Nato. The need to support Ukraine is growing. So is the risk of war with Russia. And now the opening shots in a trade war with the US are fired. But some problems offset each other.
April 3, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Europe seems to be beleaguered from all sides: Trump undermines and threatens to disengage from Nato. The need to support Ukraine is growing. So is the risk of war with Russia. And now the opening shots in a trade war with the US are fired. But some problems offset each other.
A "bloodbath" in the NSC is under way, according to reporting by Axios. This is significant. The purge might shift the balance inside the Trump administration further towards those who want to cozy up to Putin and confront, rather than support, Ukraine. Bad news for Nato, too.
Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit
A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"
www.axios.com
April 3, 2025 at 5:51 PM
A "bloodbath" in the NSC is under way, according to reporting by Axios. This is significant. The purge might shift the balance inside the Trump administration further towards those who want to cozy up to Putin and confront, rather than support, Ukraine. Bad news for Nato, too.
So Orban has announced that Hungary will leave the International Criminal Court. Let me take a guess where this is headed:
1. Orban paves the way for offering Budapest as a venue where Trump and Putin can meet. The ICC warrant against Putin is no longer an issue.
1. Orban paves the way for offering Budapest as a venue where Trump and Putin can meet. The ICC warrant against Putin is no longer an issue.
Hungary withdraws from International Criminal Court during Netanyahu visit
The move is announced hours after Israel's PM, who is sought under an ICC arrest warrant, arrives in Budapest for a state visit.
www.bbc.com
April 3, 2025 at 2:39 PM
So Orban has announced that Hungary will leave the International Criminal Court. Let me take a guess where this is headed:
1. Orban paves the way for offering Budapest as a venue where Trump and Putin can meet. The ICC warrant against Putin is no longer an issue.
1. Orban paves the way for offering Budapest as a venue where Trump and Putin can meet. The ICC warrant against Putin is no longer an issue.
For reference: 'A positive outcome of ceasefire talks "won't happen this year, or maybe at the end of the year," said Grigori Karasin, the Russian negotiator at the latest talks in Riyadh.' Source: @yarotrof.bsky.social
Even if that fails, Russia's foot dragging will work as a complement to European reservations. Putin does not want a ceasefire anytime soon and has made that very clear. That should play into Europe's hands for preventing a total sellout. /12
Leonid Ragozin on X: "Some really bellicose Putin tonight. “We will crush them”, meaning the Ukrainian army. Also claims there is no legitimate authority in Ukraine because Zelensky’s term has expired. While Russia is far from crushing the Ukrainian army as things stand now (and he knows it), he is" / X
Some really bellicose Putin tonight. “We will crush them”, meaning the Ukrainian army. Also claims there is no legitimate authority in Ukraine because Zelensky’s term has expired. While Russia is far from crushing the Ukrainian army as things stand now (and he knows it), he is
x.com
March 31, 2025 at 12:16 PM
For reference: 'A positive outcome of ceasefire talks "won't happen this year, or maybe at the end of the year," said Grigori Karasin, the Russian negotiator at the latest talks in Riyadh.' Source: @yarotrof.bsky.social
Important to note that European leverage has a limited shelf life. EU sanctions are up for renewal at the end of July and require unanimous approval. Orban will certainly obstruct, Fico might as well. And who knows what surprises the Romanian election has in store for us.
Europe's relations with the US may be damaged beyond repair, but how to manage the transition has become an acute problem - accelerated by Putin's tactics in the ceasefire negotiations. 1/
March 29, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Important to note that European leverage has a limited shelf life. EU sanctions are up for renewal at the end of July and require unanimous approval. Orban will certainly obstruct, Fico might as well. And who knows what surprises the Romanian election has in store for us.
Europe's relations with the US may be damaged beyond repair, but how to manage the transition has become an acute problem - accelerated by Putin's tactics in the ceasefire negotiations. 1/
March 29, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Europe's relations with the US may be damaged beyond repair, but how to manage the transition has become an acute problem - accelerated by Putin's tactics in the ceasefire negotiations. 1/
The US is no longer a reliable Nato ally. Russian pressure on the Europeans is increasing and will require a change in relations with Ukraine once the fighting stops. There is a low but non-zero probability that Putin might choose to test European defences rather soon. 1/
March 27, 2025 at 7:24 PM
The US is no longer a reliable Nato ally. Russian pressure on the Europeans is increasing and will require a change in relations with Ukraine once the fighting stops. There is a low but non-zero probability that Putin might choose to test European defences rather soon. 1/
For Xi, EU ≠ Europe. Xi is looking for opportunities by engaging individual governments at the expense of the EU. During his last visit to the continent, he bypassed Brussels and chose to meet Macron instead. 1/
Xi Jinping snubs EU-China anniversary summit
Brussels sought visit to mark 50 years of ties, but move adds to scepticism about warm words from Beijing
www.ft.com
March 16, 2025 at 11:42 AM
For Xi, EU ≠ Europe. Xi is looking for opportunities by engaging individual governments at the expense of the EU. During his last visit to the continent, he bypassed Brussels and chose to meet Macron instead. 1/
Again, huge numbers of people are protesting in Belgrade today: loud, peaceful, orderly - so well behaved, in fact, that Vučić can enjoy a day off and return to his desk on Monday as if nothing much has happened. Apart from one incident, his thugs seem to lie low, too. 1/
March 15, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Again, huge numbers of people are protesting in Belgrade today: loud, peaceful, orderly - so well behaved, in fact, that Vučić can enjoy a day off and return to his desk on Monday as if nothing much has happened. Apart from one incident, his thugs seem to lie low, too. 1/
Huge protests in Belgrade tonight - and that is just the warm-up for tomorrow's big event. Supporters of all ages have shown up for the student protest ...
March 14, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Huge protests in Belgrade tonight - and that is just the warm-up for tomorrow's big event. Supporters of all ages have shown up for the student protest ...
I really object to the label 'transactional' for US foreign policy by now. It implies a kind of disinterested neutrality focused on dealmaking, not the forceful arm-twisting we are seeing. 'Extortionary' is more like it.
February 25, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I really object to the label 'transactional' for US foreign policy by now. It implies a kind of disinterested neutrality focused on dealmaking, not the forceful arm-twisting we are seeing. 'Extortionary' is more like it.
An underappreciated result of the German election will soon be felt around Europe. The mainstream parties, whether in government or in opposition, have lost their two-thirds majority. In the new Bundestag, they can muster 414 votes if they close their ranks: 6 votes short.
February 24, 2025 at 2:46 PM
An underappreciated result of the German election will soon be felt around Europe. The mainstream parties, whether in government or in opposition, have lost their two-thirds majority. In the new Bundestag, they can muster 414 votes if they close their ranks: 6 votes short.
Macron's pitch to Trump could combine the vanity approach (thank you for opening an avenue to peace, Mr President, we adore you) with some tough talk: Putin has united Europe more effectively than anyone else by moving against it. There is a lesson to be learned. 🧵
bsky.app/profile/hash...
bsky.app/profile/hash...
"How can you be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?" If that is Macron's pitch to Trump, I think it will fall flat. Trump is currently seeking a deal with China. His idea of looking strong vis-à-vis Xi is probably very different from Macron's.
bsky.app/profile/mijr...
bsky.app/profile/mijr...
Macron said he would tell President Trump when he flies to Washington on Monday “you cannot afford to be weak with President Putin….Weakness is not you. It’s not in your nature. It’s not in your interest. How can you be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?” /2
February 21, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Macron's pitch to Trump could combine the vanity approach (thank you for opening an avenue to peace, Mr President, we adore you) with some tough talk: Putin has united Europe more effectively than anyone else by moving against it. There is a lesson to be learned. 🧵
bsky.app/profile/hash...
bsky.app/profile/hash...
"How can you be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?" If that is Macron's pitch to Trump, I think it will fall flat. Trump is currently seeking a deal with China. His idea of looking strong vis-à-vis Xi is probably very different from Macron's.
bsky.app/profile/mijr...
bsky.app/profile/mijr...
Macron said he would tell President Trump when he flies to Washington on Monday “you cannot afford to be weak with President Putin….Weakness is not you. It’s not in your nature. It’s not in your interest. How can you be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?” /2
February 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM
"How can you be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?" If that is Macron's pitch to Trump, I think it will fall flat. Trump is currently seeking a deal with China. His idea of looking strong vis-à-vis Xi is probably very different from Macron's.
bsky.app/profile/mijr...
bsky.app/profile/mijr...