_ michael
@hashchange.bsky.social
"A personal friend?" inquired the Vogon, who had heard the expression somewhere once and decided to try it out.
Welcome to my social-network self.
🔗 www.zeilenwechsel.de
Welcome to my social-network self.
🔗 www.zeilenwechsel.de
Well, Russian intelligence finds people to work with, and so can Vance & friends, I guess
November 30, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Well, Russian intelligence finds people to work with, and so can Vance & friends, I guess
Vance has emerged as a major proponent of a deal at Ukraine's expense, having installed Driscoll in a key role. It would absolutely make sense for him to take advantage of Zelensky's weakness, look for local allies and use them to change Ukraine's stance from within.
November 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Vance has emerged as a major proponent of a deal at Ukraine's expense, having installed Driscoll in a key role. It would absolutely make sense for him to take advantage of Zelensky's weakness, look for local allies and use them to change Ukraine's stance from within.
"Trump has previously said some skilled foreign workers may be necessary to train Americans in state-of-the-art factories." That's the intent. Whether it works is another matter ("doubtful anyone's going to offer 2nm process training courses") 👇
Dan Nystedt on X: "@Hopehope_G_hope The US needs to rebuild its technical/vocational training schools, probably more of what this is about. Doubtful anyone's going to offer 2nm process training courses. There are many chip jobs that don't require an advanced degree, but pay well. If I were young, I'd look into fab" / X
@Hopehope_G_hope The US needs to rebuild its technical/vocational training schools, probably more of what this is about. Doubtful anyone's going to offer 2nm process training courses. There are many chip jobs that don't require an advanced degree, but pay well. If I were young, I'd look into fab
x.com
November 29, 2025 at 10:05 AM
"Trump has previously said some skilled foreign workers may be necessary to train Americans in state-of-the-art factories." That's the intent. Whether it works is another matter ("doubtful anyone's going to offer 2nm process training courses") 👇
Just as Nord Stream 2 would have circumvented Ukraine as a critical part of the East-West pipeline, onshoring semiconductor production removes Taiwan from the national-security calculus of the US. But NS2 has been another country's project = bad, whereas onshoring = let's do it.
November 29, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Just as Nord Stream 2 would have circumvented Ukraine as a critical part of the East-West pipeline, onshoring semiconductor production removes Taiwan from the national-security calculus of the US. But NS2 has been another country's project = bad, whereas onshoring = let's do it.
This is why security guarantees are so important. There is no way Ukraine can pay for a deterrent of sufficient size to keep Russia at bay. There are many issues with the US peace plan, but the cap on Ukraine's forces is not one of them. /10
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
This is why security guarantees are so important. There is no way Ukraine can pay for a deterrent of sufficient size to keep Russia at bay. There are many issues with the US peace plan, but the cap on Ukraine's forces is not one of them. /10
A peace of some sort will end the carnage of the war. But the challenges awaiting Ukraine afterwards are enormous. As if that wasn't enough, Ukraine is expected to maintain an army none of the affluent countries in Western Europe could afford? Not a chance. 9/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
A peace of some sort will end the carnage of the war. But the challenges awaiting Ukraine afterwards are enormous. As if that wasn't enough, Ukraine is expected to maintain an army none of the affluent countries in Western Europe could afford? Not a chance. 9/
The country is awash with weapons. Hundreds of thousands of decommissioned troops must be reintegrated into society, many of whom will suffer from PTSD. Expect a surge in crime and violence. If the settlement with Russia leads to acrimony, some of that violence will be political. 8/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The country is awash with weapons. Hundreds of thousands of decommissioned troops must be reintegrated into society, many of whom will suffer from PTSD. Expect a surge in crime and violence. If the settlement with Russia leads to acrimony, some of that violence will be political. 8/
On top of all that, support from allies will dwindle once the immediate crisis is over and voters no longer tolerate the sacrifices benefitting Ukraine. And we haven't even touched upon the emerging internal divisions and the risk of political instability in a post-war period. 7/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
On top of all that, support from allies will dwindle once the immediate crisis is over and voters no longer tolerate the sacrifices benefitting Ukraine. And we haven't even touched upon the emerging internal divisions and the risk of political instability in a post-war period. 7/
Ukraine faces a massive mine problem, has to accommodate huge numbers of internal refugees, suffers from major corruption issues, must rebuild broken infrastructure and a heavily damaged industrial base, is hampered by low tax morale and settled with crushing debt. 6/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Ukraine faces a massive mine problem, has to accommodate huge numbers of internal refugees, suffers from major corruption issues, must rebuild broken infrastructure and a heavily damaged industrial base, is hampered by low tax morale and settled with crushing debt. 6/
There is a reason Nato member states, apart from the US, don't have armies of that size. They can't afford to. Neither will Ukraine once the war is over. It will have to deal with the consequences of large-scale destruction for years if not decades to come. 5/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
There is a reason Nato member states, apart from the US, don't have armies of that size. They can't afford to. Neither will Ukraine once the war is over. It will have to deal with the consequences of large-scale destruction for years if not decades to come. 5/
Money will be the limiting factor. A standing army of 600.000 would make Ukraine's military the second largest in Europe, apart from Russia's, larger than that of any Nato member except the US, matching the forces of France, the UK, Germany and Canada *combined*. 4/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Money will be the limiting factor. A standing army of 600.000 would make Ukraine's military the second largest in Europe, apart from Russia's, larger than that of any Nato member except the US, matching the forces of France, the UK, Germany and Canada *combined*. 4/
If Ukraine could exchange its current forces for a well-trained, well-equipped, motivated and rested army of 600.000, it should jump at the opportunity. But it can't. The strength of Ukraine's military will indeed be curtailed, though not by the cap envisaged in the plan. 3/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
If Ukraine could exchange its current forces for a well-trained, well-equipped, motivated and rested army of 600.000, it should jump at the opportunity. But it can't. The strength of Ukraine's military will indeed be curtailed, though not by the cap envisaged in the plan. 3/
Currently, Ukraine fields about 850.000 troops. Units suffer from low morale, a large number of desertions (to the tune of approximately 20.000 cases last month), a shortage of equipment, an even more acute shortage of munitions and a woeful level of training. 2/
November 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Currently, Ukraine fields about 850.000 troops. Units suffer from low morale, a large number of desertions (to the tune of approximately 20.000 cases last month), a shortage of equipment, an even more acute shortage of munitions and a woeful level of training. 2/
That has given the group around Vance and Witkoff an opening to push for a settlement which is harsh on Ukraine, in line with their pro-Russian sympathies. But Rubio has played a prominent role during the talks today. The fight is still on. More confusion to follow. /9
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
That has given the group around Vance and Witkoff an opening to push for a settlement which is harsh on Ukraine, in line with their pro-Russian sympathies. But Rubio has played a prominent role during the talks today. The fight is still on. More confusion to follow. /9
Trump's instinct has led him to seize the moment, use Zelensky's weakness (Mindichgate) and repeat what he pulled off with Gaza after Netanyahu committed his major blunder by bombing Qatar. The blueprint exists, and so does the temptation to use it again. 8/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Trump's instinct has led him to seize the moment, use Zelensky's weakness (Mindichgate) and repeat what he pulled off with Gaza after Netanyahu committed his major blunder by bombing Qatar. The blueprint exists, and so does the temptation to use it again. 8/
Europeans have signaled their opposition publicly on Saturday, in unusually clear terms. As the plan ran into opposition, Rubio - who presumably is not a fan of the plan and working to undermine it in its current form - put some distance between the US and the proposal. 7/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Europeans have signaled their opposition publicly on Saturday, in unusually clear terms. As the plan ran into opposition, Rubio - who presumably is not a fan of the plan and working to undermine it in its current form - put some distance between the US and the proposal. 7/
The back-and-forth seems arbitrary, but it is dangerous. It can tip over in either direction at any time and coalesce into a permanent policy position. Ukrainians and Europeans are right to freak out. 6/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
The back-and-forth seems arbitrary, but it is dangerous. It can tip over in either direction at any time and coalesce into a permanent policy position. Ukrainians and Europeans are right to freak out. 6/
Inside the Trump administration, competing factions jostle for the best position. The result is the ambiguity we see here. Owning, disowning, proposing and walking back a plan is just part of the process. 5/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Inside the Trump administration, competing factions jostle for the best position. The result is the ambiguity we see here. Owning, disowning, proposing and walking back a plan is just part of the process. 5/
But the Russian text has not been copied verbatim. It is inconceivable that Russia would accept, let alone propose, a limit on the Ukrainian military to the tune of 600.000 troops. That is a lot. It can deter future Russian incursions if the force is in better shape than now. 4/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
But the Russian text has not been copied verbatim. It is inconceivable that Russia would accept, let alone propose, a limit on the Ukrainian military to the tune of 600.000 troops. That is a lot. It can deter future Russian incursions if the force is in better shape than now. 4/
There are strong indications that the plan is based on a Russian paper - and one which had been around for a while, if Grozev is right. 3/
Christo Grozev on X: "I happened to see an early version of the "peace plan" , about 6 months ago. It was a purely Russian concept and was nearly identical to what we see today (certainly the 50/50 Russian assets + EU investment in Ukraine reconstruction was there). However two items are glaringly" / X
I happened to see an early version of the "peace plan" , about 6 months ago. It was a purely Russian concept and was nearly identical to what we see today (certainly the 50/50 Russian assets + EU investment in Ukraine reconstruction was there). However two items are glaringly
x.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
There are strong indications that the plan is based on a Russian paper - and one which had been around for a while, if Grozev is right. 3/
In the context of the Trump administration, all of the above can be true. The wide range of positions is contradictory only if one assumes an orderly, coordinated process. In reality, trial balloons morph into official positions and back into vague suggestions in a heartbeat. 2/
November 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
In the context of the Trump administration, all of the above can be true. The wide range of positions is contradictory only if one assumes an orderly, coordinated process. In reality, trial balloons morph into official positions and back into vague suggestions in a heartbeat. 2/