Has anyone done an analysis on how the collapse this gigantic house of cards will play out?

Mother of all crashes(?)

«Aksjemarkedet har begynt å forberede seg på nedturen.»

Bortsett fra pengebingen Norge da, der Stoltenberg er livredd oljefondet skal selge seg ned i de «fantastiske 7». Så redd at vi ikke lenger kan tenke etisk.

Til og med finansakrobat i Pensum Asset Management. Ikke mye økonomi på pensum da han gikk på skolen da.

En-roads is nice to play around with and illustrate. I use it a lot in teaching.

Agree. Turn that GDP growth down, and stop cutting down trees and we end up down around 1.9C, final energy by electricity peaks around 10% higher than today. Check scenario in link
en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.htm...

Even in a modestly decarbonizing scenario (2.7C by 2100), final energy from electricity will start to fall by 2050, but increase by 70-80% from now until 2050. So we should not be too worried either. Unrealistic 15EJ/yr of H2 is baked in there too....
en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.htm...

Or perhaps they have just reached such a high level of wealth that the only threat to their existence is some cataclysmic event (where they’d head for space) or the masses rising against them - for which they now have full control over through the big red LLM-knobs.

I think it’s more to it. These tech companies, each with a customer base being a significant portion of the global population, see no other potential for further growth than being first to this mirage of «AGI»

«if AGI happens there will be no need for ‘prompt-engineers’. And if it doesn’t, the people with only surface level knowledge who cannot perform tasks without the help of AI will be extremely abundant, and thus extremely replaceable.»

«The more people lean on LLMs, the more likely they are limit their knowledge expansion, undergo skill regression, and weaken their logic and reasoning ability.»

«When people use LLMs, they aren’t just being presented with flimsy surface level understandings of topics. They’re often outsourcing many of their means of reinforcing knowledge to the AI too. And in some cases, their logic and reasoning itself.»

Of course you’re right!

But the broligarchy and capital seem to think otherwise

Most BEVs come with heat pumps. Even my 2020 eGolf has a heat pump.

Of course power production will increase with electrification, but arguing for producing heat many hundreds of C above the use temperature is being stupid.

«The brain is naturally very fragile to instant gratification, which is also part of the mechanism behind drug addiction. When feelings of accomplishment are tied to completion of a task, the less time taken to accomplish the task, the more frequent the dopamine hits.»

Ahh, its much worse! It’s adding layers upon layers of prompts, exponentially rising the compute.

…and the first one to get there, to AGI, will corner any market there is.

Someone, or something must stop these techbros and broligarchs!

The diameter of this drain of capital and resources is expanding by the day, but for how long will they keep it plugged?

Until now, I’ve thought big-tech’s «AI» lunacy race was mostly about getting people hooked on free drugs, for then later to harvest the subscriptions once the free samples are off the street. A competing business model, I’ve come to realize, is that they actually think LLM will lead to AGI ….