Policy responses must match the scale and complexity of the economic environment. As global volatility intensifies, policies should be anchored in long-term economic growth, investment, and productivity, prioritising resilience over short-term fiscal targets. /3

Given January and February’s GDP outturns, alongside signals from the Purchasing Managers’ Index and a patchy recovery across sectors, we project GDP to expand by 0.6 per cent in Q1 2025, with growth primarily driven by the Production and Services sectors. /2

Monthly GDP growth in February performed better than expected, with output expanding by 0.5 per cent, mainly driven by widespread growth across all sectors. This follows an upward revision from stagnant growth in January and recovery from the flatlined growth in 2024. /1