griteater
@griteater.bsky.social
Charlotte, NC. I’m a winter weather nut living in a warm climate in North Carolina, and neither of those is going to change
Think that was the old calculation
November 19, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Think that was the old calculation
You mean you don't like the coldest wind chill in NFL history and snowjams in Atlanta? 😎
November 19, 2025 at 12:41 AM
You mean you don't like the coldest wind chill in NFL history and snowjams in Atlanta? 😎
I’d say the icon is fine with the single rain drop, but “chance” or “likely” type wording needs to be along with the expected precipitation type and intensity. NWS example here
October 23, 2025 at 10:44 AM
I’d say the icon is fine with the single rain drop, but “chance” or “likely” type wording needs to be along with the expected precipitation type and intensity. NWS example here
Euro AI performed well. Vast majority of its runs kept the storm offshore (including this one, 06z Sep26 run comparison). I like it the best among the deterministic models (watch it a lot in the 0-10 day range for outdoor activities)
September 29, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Euro AI performed well. Vast majority of its runs kept the storm offshore (including this one, 06z Sep26 run comparison). I like it the best among the deterministic models (watch it a lot in the 0-10 day range for outdoor activities)
My daughter had a ruptured appendix over the summer after 2 visits to Urg Care & 2 to the ER. They didn’t take the symptoms serious enough. She’s fine now. I would just say listen to what you are observing (vomiting/fever) & push for blood tests & a CT Scan if you feel like you need deeper answers
September 18, 2025 at 3:34 AM
My daughter had a ruptured appendix over the summer after 2 visits to Urg Care & 2 to the ER. They didn’t take the symptoms serious enough. She’s fine now. I would just say listen to what you are observing (vomiting/fever) & push for blood tests & a CT Scan if you feel like you need deeper answers
Sorry to hear about this. Hadn’t heard of it. Hoping for speedy recovery
September 18, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Sorry to hear about this. Hadn’t heard of it. Hoping for speedy recovery
If you limit ENSO to weak Cool ENSO (cool netural and weak la nina), the +QBO/Cool ENSO/Poleward NPac High connection is a perfect 11/11 correct prediction
September 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
If you limit ENSO to weak Cool ENSO (cool netural and weak la nina), the +QBO/Cool ENSO/Poleward NPac High connection is a perfect 11/11 correct prediction
Quick look on my ssheet says the +QBO/Cool ENSO/Poleward NPac High connection is stronger (15/18 or 83% correct prediction, incl last winter) than the -QBO/Cool ENSO/Equatorward NPac High one (7/12 or 58%correct prediction). So, a bit more opportunity for a curve ball this winter with the -QBO
September 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Quick look on my ssheet says the +QBO/Cool ENSO/Poleward NPac High connection is stronger (15/18 or 83% correct prediction, incl last winter) than the -QBO/Cool ENSO/Equatorward NPac High one (7/12 or 58%correct prediction). So, a bit more opportunity for a curve ball this winter with the -QBO
After a brutal June-July, it has been crazy nice of late (Aug-early Sep).
September 10, 2025 at 4:14 PM
After a brutal June-July, it has been crazy nice of late (Aug-early Sep).
Let me just be one to point out that you had a great over / under target of 1.7
January 9, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Let me just be one to point out that you had a great over / under target of 1.7
Another good example of Strat NAM / Trop AO disconnect is 1979-1980 (late Dec to late Feb)
January 1, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Another good example of Strat NAM / Trop AO disconnect is 1979-1980 (late Dec to late Feb)
Now that you bring up analogs, the similarities with 1980-1981 are striking. Solar Max, +QBO, +PNA in Dec/Jan, a bit disconnected Strat and Trop in Dec/Jan. Strong Strat NAM into mid Jan, then weakening and SSW in early Feb
January 1, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Now that you bring up analogs, the similarities with 1980-1981 are striking. Solar Max, +QBO, +PNA in Dec/Jan, a bit disconnected Strat and Trop in Dec/Jan. Strong Strat NAM into mid Jan, then weakening and SSW in early Feb
Wind it up and Wave 2 it
January 1, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Wind it up and Wave 2 it
Been thinking about this as well. It would be neat to have a numerical NAM index for the stratosphere and compare that with the numerical NAM/AO index in the troposphere, and see which winters, or periods of winter, had the largest differential value
December 30, 2024 at 7:48 PM
Been thinking about this as well. It would be neat to have a numerical NAM index for the stratosphere and compare that with the numerical NAM/AO index in the troposphere, and see which winters, or periods of winter, had the largest differential value
Euro run AO, NAO, EPO
December 24, 2024 at 6:55 AM
Euro run AO, NAO, EPO
Alt view of the boot
December 24, 2024 at 6:54 AM
Alt view of the boot
I like to say that you'll never know how hard it is to forecast until you try to do it yourself and put it out there, haha
December 23, 2024 at 3:50 PM
I like to say that you'll never know how hard it is to forecast until you try to do it yourself and put it out there, haha
It's like that when I watch the Pac jet and W NAmerica patten too. Seems like tiny little changes have such a big impact downstream
December 23, 2024 at 3:46 PM
It's like that when I watch the Pac jet and W NAmerica patten too. Seems like tiny little changes have such a big impact downstream
December 23, 2024 at 3:41 PM
No worries on the response, of course. TYou
December 23, 2024 at 3:14 PM
No worries on the response, of course. TYou