grisingTRS
@grisingtrs.bsky.social
Sports including stats, and music and movies. Grew up in Michigan and lives in Tucson, Arizona.
What does all this tell us?
If you prioritize WAR as the best player evaluator, then you can have a conversation/debate with someone who prioritizes hits bc WAR and hits are highly correlated.
But WAR prioritizers should never debate with those who prioritize BA bc there's little common ground
If you prioritize WAR as the best player evaluator, then you can have a conversation/debate with someone who prioritizes hits bc WAR and hits are highly correlated.
But WAR prioritizers should never debate with those who prioritize BA bc there's little common ground
November 7, 2025 at 7:38 PM
What does all this tell us?
If you prioritize WAR as the best player evaluator, then you can have a conversation/debate with someone who prioritizes hits bc WAR and hits are highly correlated.
But WAR prioritizers should never debate with those who prioritize BA bc there's little common ground
If you prioritize WAR as the best player evaluator, then you can have a conversation/debate with someone who prioritizes hits bc WAR and hits are highly correlated.
But WAR prioritizers should never debate with those who prioritize BA bc there's little common ground
Here's what I found:
Correlation:
+0.841 Rbat: WAR
+0.698 WAR: H
+0.526 Rbat/PA: BA
+0.500 Rbat: H
+0.463 WAR/PA: BA
+0.332 Rbat: BA
+0.212 WAR: BA
Correlation:
+0.841 Rbat: WAR
+0.698 WAR: H
+0.526 Rbat/PA: BA
+0.500 Rbat: H
+0.463 WAR/PA: BA
+0.332 Rbat: BA
+0.212 WAR: BA
November 7, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Here's what I found:
Correlation:
+0.841 Rbat: WAR
+0.698 WAR: H
+0.526 Rbat/PA: BA
+0.500 Rbat: H
+0.463 WAR/PA: BA
+0.332 Rbat: BA
+0.212 WAR: BA
Correlation:
+0.841 Rbat: WAR
+0.698 WAR: H
+0.526 Rbat/PA: BA
+0.500 Rbat: H
+0.463 WAR/PA: BA
+0.332 Rbat: BA
+0.212 WAR: BA
30 pitchers ranked by RA9 divided by RA9avg.
RA9 is runs against per 9 IP.
RA9avg is expected (average) runs given up by a pitcher in the same situation
Top-10
0.64 Martinez
0.65 Kershaw
0.69 Grove
0.69 Clemens
0.71 W. Johnson
0.72 Scherzer
0.73 Schilling
0.73 R. Johnson
0.75 Seaver
0.75 Alexander
RA9 is runs against per 9 IP.
RA9avg is expected (average) runs given up by a pitcher in the same situation
Top-10
0.64 Martinez
0.65 Kershaw
0.69 Grove
0.69 Clemens
0.71 W. Johnson
0.72 Scherzer
0.73 Schilling
0.73 R. Johnson
0.75 Seaver
0.75 Alexander
June 10, 2025 at 6:28 PM
30 pitchers ranked by RA9 divided by RA9avg.
RA9 is runs against per 9 IP.
RA9avg is expected (average) runs given up by a pitcher in the same situation
Top-10
0.64 Martinez
0.65 Kershaw
0.69 Grove
0.69 Clemens
0.71 W. Johnson
0.72 Scherzer
0.73 Schilling
0.73 R. Johnson
0.75 Seaver
0.75 Alexander
RA9 is runs against per 9 IP.
RA9avg is expected (average) runs given up by a pitcher in the same situation
Top-10
0.64 Martinez
0.65 Kershaw
0.69 Grove
0.69 Clemens
0.71 W. Johnson
0.72 Scherzer
0.73 Schilling
0.73 R. Johnson
0.75 Seaver
0.75 Alexander
30 top pitchers ranked by RA9avg:
Higher RA9avg = pitched in higher-scoring context
Higher RA9avg = pitched in higher-scoring context
June 10, 2025 at 6:28 PM
30 top pitchers ranked by RA9avg:
Higher RA9avg = pitched in higher-scoring context
Higher RA9avg = pitched in higher-scoring context
Interesting comparison: Brad Daugherty and Blake Griffin. (Both great passers for big men.)
June 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Interesting comparison: Brad Daugherty and Blake Griffin. (Both great passers for big men.)
HOF-eligible players with over 50 career WS.
Ranked by career P/G:
Of top-10, the only ones I argue strongly for are Marques and Aldridge.
Daugherty was on his way to HOF, but injuries stopped him at age 28. With his game, he could have played to 40 w/o injuries.
Ranked by career P/G:
Of top-10, the only ones I argue strongly for are Marques and Aldridge.
Daugherty was on his way to HOF, but injuries stopped him at age 28. With his game, he could have played to 40 w/o injuries.
June 3, 2025 at 5:02 PM
HOF-eligible players with over 50 career WS.
Ranked by career P/G:
Of top-10, the only ones I argue strongly for are Marques and Aldridge.
Daugherty was on his way to HOF, but injuries stopped him at age 28. With his game, he could have played to 40 w/o injuries.
Ranked by career P/G:
Of top-10, the only ones I argue strongly for are Marques and Aldridge.
Daugherty was on his way to HOF, but injuries stopped him at age 28. With his game, he could have played to 40 w/o injuries.
List of eligible HOFers above 50 career WS.
Ranked by WS/48:
Whiteside?! (High TS% = OWS, plus high DWS)
Sears?! Very high rTS%.
KJ: Should be in, but injury-shortened career.
Surprised Foust isn't already in.
Nance, Amar'e, Marques, Griffin deserve HOF.
Bunch of underrated guys who may deserve it.
Ranked by WS/48:
Whiteside?! (High TS% = OWS, plus high DWS)
Sears?! Very high rTS%.
KJ: Should be in, but injury-shortened career.
Surprised Foust isn't already in.
Nance, Amar'e, Marques, Griffin deserve HOF.
Bunch of underrated guys who may deserve it.
June 3, 2025 at 5:02 PM
List of eligible HOFers above 50 career WS.
Ranked by WS/48:
Whiteside?! (High TS% = OWS, plus high DWS)
Sears?! Very high rTS%.
KJ: Should be in, but injury-shortened career.
Surprised Foust isn't already in.
Nance, Amar'e, Marques, Griffin deserve HOF.
Bunch of underrated guys who may deserve it.
Ranked by WS/48:
Whiteside?! (High TS% = OWS, plus high DWS)
Sears?! Very high rTS%.
KJ: Should be in, but injury-shortened career.
Surprised Foust isn't already in.
Nance, Amar'e, Marques, Griffin deserve HOF.
Bunch of underrated guys who may deserve it.
On BBRef, I came across a list of eligible HOF candidates ranked by career WS:
Top 28:
Marion has a lot of similarities to Scottie Pippen, and I think he should be in.
Surprised Buck is not already in.
Aldridge will get in: everyone above him in career points is in.
Bunch of these guys deserve HOF
Top 28:
Marion has a lot of similarities to Scottie Pippen, and I think he should be in.
Surprised Buck is not already in.
Aldridge will get in: everyone above him in career points is in.
Bunch of these guys deserve HOF
June 3, 2025 at 5:02 PM
On BBRef, I came across a list of eligible HOF candidates ranked by career WS:
Top 28:
Marion has a lot of similarities to Scottie Pippen, and I think he should be in.
Surprised Buck is not already in.
Aldridge will get in: everyone above him in career points is in.
Bunch of these guys deserve HOF
Top 28:
Marion has a lot of similarities to Scottie Pippen, and I think he should be in.
Surprised Buck is not already in.
Aldridge will get in: everyone above him in career points is in.
Bunch of these guys deserve HOF
2024-25 regular season:
68 wins OKC
50 Pacers
51 Knicks
OKC will have a 17/18 win margin. That's the 6th largest margin in 79 Finals. None of the 5 teams with 17 or higher win margin has lost. Teams with 13+ win margin are 13-1.
Lot's can happen. But history says go with OKC.
68 wins OKC
50 Pacers
51 Knicks
OKC will have a 17/18 win margin. That's the 6th largest margin in 79 Finals. None of the 5 teams with 17 or higher win margin has lost. Teams with 13+ win margin are 13-1.
Lot's can happen. But history says go with OKC.
May 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
2024-25 regular season:
68 wins OKC
50 Pacers
51 Knicks
OKC will have a 17/18 win margin. That's the 6th largest margin in 79 Finals. None of the 5 teams with 17 or higher win margin has lost. Teams with 13+ win margin are 13-1.
Lot's can happen. But history says go with OKC.
68 wins OKC
50 Pacers
51 Knicks
OKC will have a 17/18 win margin. That's the 6th largest margin in 79 Finals. None of the 5 teams with 17 or higher win margin has lost. Teams with 13+ win margin are 13-1.
Lot's can happen. But history says go with OKC.
Teams who have won 6-21 games more than their Finals opponents in the regular season are:
40-6 (87%) in the Finals
Teams with homecourt who have won 0-5 more games in regular season are:
17-15 (53%)
Huge difference!
40-6 (87%) in the Finals
Teams with homecourt who have won 0-5 more games in regular season are:
17-15 (53%)
Huge difference!
May 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Teams who have won 6-21 games more than their Finals opponents in the regular season are:
40-6 (87%) in the Finals
Teams with homecourt who have won 0-5 more games in regular season are:
17-15 (53%)
Huge difference!
40-6 (87%) in the Finals
Teams with homecourt who have won 0-5 more games in regular season are:
17-15 (53%)
Huge difference!
Fans have lots of opinions. Last year before the Finals, my TL was plastered with "Mavs will win!" But Celtics, who had 14 more regular-seasons wins, won it.
History tells us that the team with the better RS record (and/or homecourt advantage) has won 57 of 78 Finals, 73% of the time.
Next ...
History tells us that the team with the better RS record (and/or homecourt advantage) has won 57 of 78 Finals, 73% of the time.
Next ...
May 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Fans have lots of opinions. Last year before the Finals, my TL was plastered with "Mavs will win!" But Celtics, who had 14 more regular-seasons wins, won it.
History tells us that the team with the better RS record (and/or homecourt advantage) has won 57 of 78 Finals, 73% of the time.
Next ...
History tells us that the team with the better RS record (and/or homecourt advantage) has won 57 of 78 Finals, 73% of the time.
Next ...
Gooden with a Seaver career arc would have a GOAT case:
398-107, 2.32 ERA, 96 SHO, 5280 SO
Herb Score (a tragic case) also would be inner-circle:
350-156, 3.10 ERA, 61 SHO, 4931 SO
Higuera, Fidrych, Oswalt, and Prior would also be HOF worthy.
398-107, 2.32 ERA, 96 SHO, 5280 SO
Herb Score (a tragic case) also would be inner-circle:
350-156, 3.10 ERA, 61 SHO, 4931 SO
Higuera, Fidrych, Oswalt, and Prior would also be HOF worthy.
May 27, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Gooden with a Seaver career arc would have a GOAT case:
398-107, 2.32 ERA, 96 SHO, 5280 SO
Herb Score (a tragic case) also would be inner-circle:
350-156, 3.10 ERA, 61 SHO, 4931 SO
Higuera, Fidrych, Oswalt, and Prior would also be HOF worthy.
398-107, 2.32 ERA, 96 SHO, 5280 SO
Herb Score (a tragic case) also would be inner-circle:
350-156, 3.10 ERA, 61 SHO, 4931 SO
Higuera, Fidrych, Oswalt, and Prior would also be HOF worthy.
Looking at the list, there are several sad cases and some HOF pitchers, led by Tom Seaver.
So I thought, what if they all had Tom Seaver career arcs?
The answer:
So I thought, what if they all had Tom Seaver career arcs?
The answer:
May 27, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Looking at the list, there are several sad cases and some HOF pitchers, led by Tom Seaver.
So I thought, what if they all had Tom Seaver career arcs?
The answer:
So I thought, what if they all had Tom Seaver career arcs?
The answer:
There was a post asking if Dwight Gooden had the best first two years ever for a pitcher. The answer is yes based on WAR (since 1950).
Here are 8 of the top 10 in War for first two years since 1950. Some impressive names:
Here are 8 of the top 10 in War for first two years since 1950. Some impressive names:
May 27, 2025 at 7:49 PM
There was a post asking if Dwight Gooden had the best first two years ever for a pitcher. The answer is yes based on WAR (since 1950).
Here are 8 of the top 10 in War for first two years since 1950. Some impressive names:
Here are 8 of the top 10 in War for first two years since 1950. Some impressive names:
Players in NBA career top-25 in both BLK% and DRB%
(I used 3500 MP for the minimum. Pretty low standard, but I wanted to get Wemby on it🤣 ):
(I used 3500 MP for the minimum. Pretty low standard, but I wanted to get Wemby on it🤣 ):
May 12, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Players in NBA career top-25 in both BLK% and DRB%
(I used 3500 MP for the minimum. Pretty low standard, but I wanted to get Wemby on it🤣 ):
(I used 3500 MP for the minimum. Pretty low standard, but I wanted to get Wemby on it🤣 ):
Little-known fact:
During the 1972-73 season when the Celtics went 68-14, Silas had a higher WS/48 than Cowens (MVP, All-NBA, All-Star), Havlicek (All-NBA & All-Star), and Jo Jo White (All Star), plus Nelson, Westphal, and Chaney.
During the 1972-73 season when the Celtics went 68-14, Silas had a higher WS/48 than Cowens (MVP, All-NBA, All-Star), Havlicek (All-NBA & All-Star), and Jo Jo White (All Star), plus Nelson, Westphal, and Chaney.
April 25, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Little-known fact:
During the 1972-73 season when the Celtics went 68-14, Silas had a higher WS/48 than Cowens (MVP, All-NBA, All-Star), Havlicek (All-NBA & All-Star), and Jo Jo White (All Star), plus Nelson, Westphal, and Chaney.
During the 1972-73 season when the Celtics went 68-14, Silas had a higher WS/48 than Cowens (MVP, All-NBA, All-Star), Havlicek (All-NBA & All-Star), and Jo Jo White (All Star), plus Nelson, Westphal, and Chaney.
I turned off this game at halftime. Whoops!
April 25, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I turned off this game at halftime. Whoops!
I don't like it; but she really hates it! 🤣
April 15, 2025 at 6:13 PM
I don't like it; but she really hates it! 🤣
It's weird who gets in HOF and who doesn't.
April 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
It's weird who gets in HOF and who doesn't.
Billy Ray Bates. All-time-great scorer (per minute):
April 1, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Billy Ray Bates. All-time-great scorer (per minute):
Highest BPM for a freshman (since 2003):
March 31, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Highest BPM for a freshman (since 2003):
Flagg is 15th all time in WS/40 for a freshman (since 2003):
March 31, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Flagg is 15th all time in WS/40 for a freshman (since 2003):
Sounds about right.
March 31, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Sounds about right.
I took Bob Gibson's stats for 1961-74 and adjusted them to 40 games started per year.
The result:
11 straight 20-win seasons!
13 straight of 19+ W
26-11 with 15 shutouts in 1968!
Career: 310 W, 4774 IP, 3834 SO, 68 SHO
The result:
11 straight 20-win seasons!
13 straight of 19+ W
26-11 with 15 shutouts in 1968!
Career: 310 W, 4774 IP, 3834 SO, 68 SHO
March 30, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I took Bob Gibson's stats for 1961-74 and adjusted them to 40 games started per year.
The result:
11 straight 20-win seasons!
13 straight of 19+ W
26-11 with 15 shutouts in 1968!
Career: 310 W, 4774 IP, 3834 SO, 68 SHO
The result:
11 straight 20-win seasons!
13 straight of 19+ W
26-11 with 15 shutouts in 1968!
Career: 310 W, 4774 IP, 3834 SO, 68 SHO
The pitchers with the highest wins as a starter per games started are mostly considered inner-circle HOFers.
By contrast, the lowest are mostly borderline HOFers, plus Nolan Ryan, who is overrated.
.406 Tommy John
.411 Nolan Ryan
.416 Jim Kaat
.418 Bert Blyleven
.422 Phil Niekro
.425 Don Sutton
By contrast, the lowest are mostly borderline HOFers, plus Nolan Ryan, who is overrated.
.406 Tommy John
.411 Nolan Ryan
.416 Jim Kaat
.418 Bert Blyleven
.422 Phil Niekro
.425 Don Sutton
March 30, 2025 at 7:30 PM
The pitchers with the highest wins as a starter per games started are mostly considered inner-circle HOFers.
By contrast, the lowest are mostly borderline HOFers, plus Nolan Ryan, who is overrated.
.406 Tommy John
.411 Nolan Ryan
.416 Jim Kaat
.418 Bert Blyleven
.422 Phil Niekro
.425 Don Sutton
By contrast, the lowest are mostly borderline HOFers, plus Nolan Ryan, who is overrated.
.406 Tommy John
.411 Nolan Ryan
.416 Jim Kaat
.418 Bert Blyleven
.422 Phil Niekro
.425 Don Sutton