Thank you 😊

Workshop would likely be early February next year - if we aim to do it in the morning one you could join us online? would be great to hear about your study - follow up by email?

We're planning a workshop on "demographics and AMR" early in 2026 - do get in touch if you'd like to get involved, or to discuss this paper or next steps in this space! It would be great to hear from you.

Huge thanks to the MRC for financial support and to all those involved in reporting to the EARS-NET surveillance system.
Particular thanks to @nrwaterlow.bsky.social for leading this work!
Many thanks also to co-authors @bugwonk.bsky.social @catrinm.bsky.social, Julie R, Benn S, Mike S and Clare C

Key insights:
– Demographic composition matters & can’t be ignored if we want accurate surveillance of #AMR
– Ignoring age/sex stratification risks under- or over-estimating #AMR burden in the future differently for different bug-drugs
– Achieving a plateau in #AMR infections would be a success

This emphasises once again the complexity of #AMR but also the importance and potential of using this variation to guide interventions.

Speaking of interventions - we find that hitting the UN 10% reduction in burden targets will be tough even with sustained reductions in incidence.

We find that bloodstream infection burden is more likely to increase in men.
We find hugely varying future projected burdens of #AMR by setting, antibiotic and bacteria across Europe.

In our study we combine
- bloodstream infection incidence 📈
- population projections 🔺
- resistance prevalence 🧫
by age groups and by sex 👶👩‍🦳 to create modelling projections of the future burden of resistant bloodstream infections across Europe.

I don't want to seem too cynical, but I wrote this 4 years ago: "...it will come as little surprise if a similar report in a year's time will be almost indistinguishable from the current version."

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

From this review by my PhD student Naomi Fuller: doi.org/10.1371/jour...