Giorgio Cafiero
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
CEO of DC-based Gulf State Analytics • Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University • Adjunct Fellow at American Security Project • SME Gulf States • Public Trust Contractor
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's most recent article in @thenewarab.bsky.social about the Mohammed bin Salman's visit includes my comments.
www.newarab.com/analysis/f-3...
www.newarab.com/analysis/f-3...
F-35s, AI, and defence: MbS and the Saudi comeback in Washington
Trump’s lavish welcome for Mohammed bin Salman marked both his official rehabilitation and a sweeping strategic reset of US-Saudi ties
www.newarab.com
November 20, 2025 at 3:10 PM
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's most recent article in @thenewarab.bsky.social about the Mohammed bin Salman's visit includes my comments.
www.newarab.com/analysis/f-3...
www.newarab.com/analysis/f-3...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Amid escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, GCC states have emerged as pragmatic and influential actors promoting de-escalation, stability, and dialogue. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions - AGSI
Gulf Arab states are using their diplomatic, financial, and religious leverage to try and de-escalate rising Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions.
agsi.org
October 31, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Amid escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, GCC states have emerged as pragmatic and influential actors promoting de-escalation, stability, and dialogue. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Across the Arab world, Israel’s provocations are widely seen as a liability. For Gulf capitals and their allies, long-term stability and regional security outweigh any fleeting gestures or transactional promises from Tel Aviv. By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
Israel and the Gulf: From potential partner to a growing threat
Gulf states are increasingly viewing Israel not as a potential partner, but as a growing threat to regional stability and security
www.newarab.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Across the Arab world, Israel’s provocations are widely seen as a liability. For Gulf capitals and their allies, long-term stability and regional security outweigh any fleeting gestures or transactional promises from Tel Aviv. By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
It is well-worth reading this fresh analysis about the Southern Transitional Council by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @arabcenterdc.org.
Giorgio Cafiero writes about the Southern Transitional Council’s willingness to normalize relations with #Israel if it establishes an independent state in southern #Yemen. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
Israel, the UAE, and Yemen’s South: The Politics of Unlikely Alliances
Having emerged in 2017 from Yemen’s Southern Movement, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is the preeminent political and military force in southern Yemen. Since its founding, Aidarous al-Zubaidi...
arabcenterdc.org
November 14, 2025 at 8:26 PM
It is well-worth reading this fresh analysis about the Southern Transitional Council by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @arabcenterdc.org.
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Giorgio Cafiero writes about the Southern Transitional Council’s willingness to normalize relations with #Israel if it establishes an independent state in southern #Yemen. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
Israel, the UAE, and Yemen’s South: The Politics of Unlikely Alliances
Having emerged in 2017 from Yemen’s Southern Movement, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is the preeminent political and military force in southern Yemen. Since its founding, Aidarous al-Zubaidi...
arabcenterdc.org
November 14, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Giorgio Cafiero writes about the Southern Transitional Council’s willingness to normalize relations with #Israel if it establishes an independent state in southern #Yemen. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
A most useful piece by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social explaining who's who among the armed factions in Gaza.
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...
Gaza’s Armed Fragmentation: Clans, Militias, and Rival Power Centers • Stimson Center
Many of the groups are supported by Israeli authorities who see Palestinian fragmentation as a way to both contain Hamas and to perpetuate Israel’s occupation.
www.stimson.org
October 27, 2025 at 10:15 PM
A most useful piece by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social explaining who's who among the armed factions in Gaza.
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/gul...
Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions - AGSI
Gulf Arab states are using their diplomatic, financial, and religious leverage to try and de-escalate rising Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions.
agsi.org
October 27, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/gul...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Israel's political future in his latest piece for @thenewarab.bsky.social. Giorgio quotes me in his article, among others.
www.newarab.com/analysis/net...
www.newarab.com/analysis/net...
Netanyahu’s last war? The struggle for Israel’s political future
Whether Benjamin Netanyahu clings to power or is cast aside, his legacy is one of permanently shifting Israel’s political landscape to the far right
www.newarab.com
October 16, 2025 at 11:35 PM
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Israel's political future in his latest piece for @thenewarab.bsky.social. Giorgio quotes me in his article, among others.
www.newarab.com/analysis/net...
www.newarab.com/analysis/net...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
While Iran’s efforts to position itself as a credible alternative to Western security guarantees have met with little practical success, this narrative remains a central theme in its diplomatic outreach to neighboring Arab states. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
Iran’s Messaging After Israel’s Qatar Strike - Arab Gulf States Institute
Iran has moved quickly to try to capitalize on cracks in U.S.-Gulf relations after Israel’s unprecedented attack on Hamas officials in Qatar.
agsi.org
October 7, 2025 at 2:04 PM
While Iran’s efforts to position itself as a credible alternative to Western security guarantees have met with little practical success, this narrative remains a central theme in its diplomatic outreach to neighboring Arab states. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @theipaper.com on Tom Barrack's dumb south Lebanon economic zone idea: inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Includes my thoughts 👇🏻
Includes my thoughts 👇🏻
September 13, 2025 at 3:30 PM
@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @theipaper.com on Tom Barrack's dumb south Lebanon economic zone idea: inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Includes my thoughts 👇🏻
Includes my thoughts 👇🏻
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
The European trio operates in a sharply different environment shaped by East-West divisions, which helps explain the E3’s hardening stance toward Iran. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/geo...
Geopolitical Pressures Dismantled Europe’s Iran Engagement - Arab Gulf States Institute
With the E3 triggering the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism and aligning more closely with Washington’s hard-line stance, Europe’s role as an independent diplomatic actor in Tehran is effectively over.
agsi.org
September 9, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The European trio operates in a sharply different environment shaped by East-West divisions, which helps explain the E3’s hardening stance toward Iran. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/geo...
My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social article is about #Russia's perspective on American-Iranian nuclear talks. This piece quotes Ghoncheh Tazmini, Mark Katz, and Samuel Ramani.
amwaj.media/en/article/h...
amwaj.media/en/article/h...
How does the Kremlin view Iran-US diplomacy?
The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which have taken place in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices, are “reassuring” to Russia, which has high stakes in the outcome and seeks to cons...
amwaj.media
May 7, 2025 at 6:06 PM
My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social article is about #Russia's perspective on American-Iranian nuclear talks. This piece quotes Ghoncheh Tazmini, Mark Katz, and Samuel Ramani.
amwaj.media/en/article/h...
amwaj.media/en/article/h...
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about #Trump's upcoming #Gulf visit. This article quotes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Anna Jacobs, and Courtney Freer. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha... #SaudiArabia #Qatar #UAE
What to expect from Trump’s high-stakes Middle East visit
Analysis: Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE reflects their importance to US foreign policy as regional powerhouses with deep pockets.
www.newarab.com
May 2, 2025 at 5:03 AM
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about #Trump's upcoming #Gulf visit. This article quotes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Anna Jacobs, and Courtney Freer. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha... #SaudiArabia #Qatar #UAE
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
“Rather than signalling political endorsement/readiness to leverage influence in 🇺🇸 on Syria’s behalf, 🇦🇪’s engagement stems from more pragmatic concerns, i.e a desire to avoid being excluded in a rapidly evolving regional order shaped by the involvement of 🇹🇷 and 🇸🇦” I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why.
New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?
responsiblestatecraft.org
April 17, 2025 at 11:21 AM
“Rather than signalling political endorsement/readiness to leverage influence in 🇺🇸 on Syria’s behalf, 🇦🇪’s engagement stems from more pragmatic concerns, i.e a desire to avoid being excluded in a rapidly evolving regional order shaped by the involvement of 🇹🇷 and 🇸🇦” I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
"The UAE is being pragmatic about Syria’s new reality. Abu Dhabi assesses that by minimizing friction with Syria’s new government, it can steer Damascus away from conduct that could threaten Emirati interests."
By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.
responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...
By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.
responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...
UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why.
New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?
responsiblestatecraft.org
April 17, 2025 at 11:29 AM
"The UAE is being pragmatic about Syria’s new reality. Abu Dhabi assesses that by minimizing friction with Syria’s new government, it can steer Damascus away from conduct that could threaten Emirati interests."
By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.
responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...
By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.
responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...
I spoke to @jongambrell.bsky.social about #Oman's role as a diplomatic bridge between #Washington and #Tehran.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Mideast mediator Oman at the center of a key first Iran-US meeting over Tehran's nuclear program
Iran and the United States will meet in Oman for the first talks in President Donald Trump’s second term over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program
www.washingtonpost.com
April 12, 2025 at 1:55 PM
I spoke to @jongambrell.bsky.social about #Oman's role as a diplomatic bridge between #Washington and #Tehran.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Read @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's article about the increasing rate of citizenship revocation in Kuwait. He quotes me, @seanyom.bsky.social, Courtney Freer, and Michael Herb.
amwaj.media/en/article/m...
amwaj.media/en/article/m...
Mass citizenship stripping in Kuwait cements authoritarian turn, critics say
Amwaj.media offers news, opinion and analysis on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula - coverage of the region, from the region.
amwaj.media
April 9, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Read @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's article about the increasing rate of citizenship revocation in Kuwait. He quotes me, @seanyom.bsky.social, Courtney Freer, and Michael Herb.
amwaj.media/en/article/m...
amwaj.media/en/article/m...
Here is my latest @wpr.bsky.social piece...
#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...
#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...
Turkey and Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in Syria
After Assad’s fall, Turkey’s and Russia’s positions in Syria have flipped. Their coordination in the country is set to stay the same.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 26, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Here is my latest @wpr.bsky.social piece...
#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...
#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...
My new @thenewarab.bsky.social piece analyzes how the situation in post-Assad Syria is fueling lots of tension between #Turkey and #Israel. This article quotes @ambgordongray.bsky.social, Matthew Bryza, Gokhan Ereli, Mustafa Caner, and Joshua Landis. www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
Israel and Turkey: The showdown that could shape Syria s future
Analysis: Turkey and Israel are the two main players to fill power vacuums in post-Assad Syria, and friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv is intensifying.
www.newarab.com
March 12, 2025 at 5:06 AM
My new @thenewarab.bsky.social piece analyzes how the situation in post-Assad Syria is fueling lots of tension between #Turkey and #Israel. This article quotes @ambgordongray.bsky.social, Matthew Bryza, Gokhan Ereli, Mustafa Caner, and Joshua Landis. www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
After returning from #Baghdad late last month, I produced this analysis for @arab-center-dc.bsky.social.
arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative
arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative
Geopolitical Dynamics Surrounding Iraq’s Ambitious Development Road Project
Leveraging its geography and resources to serve as an economic bridge between Asia and Europe is not a new concept for Iraq. In the 1980s, the country promoted the “Dry Canal” idea of offering a comme...
arabcenterdc.org
March 9, 2025 at 4:23 PM
After returning from #Baghdad late last month, I produced this analysis for @arab-center-dc.bsky.social.
arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative
arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative
After returning from #Iraq and #Lebanon, where I gained some insight into some regional perspectives on post-Assad #Syria, I wrote this @newarab.com.web.brid.gy about the future of Lebanon-Syria relations. www.newarab.com/analysis/cou...
Could Lebanese-Syrian relations move past Assad, Hezbollah era?
Analysis: Amid regional turmoil from Israeli expansionism, will the new governments in Syria and Lebanon manage to overcome historic divisions and start fresh?
www.newarab.com
March 1, 2025 at 6:30 PM
After returning from #Iraq and #Lebanon, where I gained some insight into some regional perspectives on post-Assad #Syria, I wrote this @newarab.com.web.brid.gy about the future of Lebanon-Syria relations. www.newarab.com/analysis/cou...
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about the future of #Syria-#Turkey relations. This piece quotes @aronlund.bsky.social, @carolinerose8.bsky.social, Qutaiba Idlbi, and Mustafa Caner. www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
How Turkey is poised to be a key player in Syria's next chapter
Analysis: From revamping the economy to political, military, and bureaucratic capacity building, Turkey will have a key influence in shaping the new Syria.
www.newarab.com
February 11, 2025 at 7:42 PM
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about the future of #Syria-#Turkey relations. This piece quotes @aronlund.bsky.social, @carolinerose8.bsky.social, Qutaiba Idlbi, and Mustafa Caner. www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Quoted here by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social alongside @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Amb. Patrick Theros on the limits of the U.S.-Saudi 'bromance' -- like his first term, the two do not have the same strategic interests, especially on oil prices.
Oil dollars and weapons sales mean Trump needs Saudi Arabia more than ever
Inside Trump and Saudi Arabia's 'unashamedly transactional' relationship
inews.co.uk
January 28, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Quoted here by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social alongside @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Amb. Patrick Theros on the limits of the U.S.-Saudi 'bromance' -- like his first term, the two do not have the same strategic interests, especially on oil prices.
Reposted by Giorgio Cafiero
Writing for @thenewarab.bsky.social today, @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Middle East policy in the second Trump administration. He quotes me, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @tparsi.bsky.social, @shadihamid.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Ferial Saeed.
www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...
www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...
What to expect from Trump 2.0's Middle East policy
Analysis: Trump's administration is divided between hawkish neocons and 'restrainers', but which group will have the most influence on US Middle East policy?
www.newarab.com
January 28, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Writing for @thenewarab.bsky.social today, @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Middle East policy in the second Trump administration. He quotes me, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @tparsi.bsky.social, @shadihamid.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Ferial Saeed.
www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...
www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social article is about Trump's desire to see #Israel and #SaudiArabia normalize. This piece quotes Aziz Alghashian, Nabeel Khoury, Annelle Sheline, Kenneth Katzman, and Charles Dunne.
www.newarab.com/analysis/tru...
www.newarab.com/analysis/tru...
Trump wants an Israel-Saudi normalisation deal. Will he get one?
Analysis: Trump is eyeing the grand prize of Israel-Saudi normalisation, but after the Gaza war and shifting regional dynamics, the chances are remote.
www.newarab.com
January 22, 2025 at 4:29 AM
My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social article is about Trump's desire to see #Israel and #SaudiArabia normalize. This piece quotes Aziz Alghashian, Nabeel Khoury, Annelle Sheline, Kenneth Katzman, and Charles Dunne.
www.newarab.com/analysis/tru...
www.newarab.com/analysis/tru...