George Hay
@georgehay.bsky.social
EMEA Editor, Reuters Breakingviews
Reposted by George Hay
For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
September 23, 2025 at 11:13 AM
For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
Reposted by George Hay
So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
The Big View
News Podcast · Updated weekly · Reuters Breakingviews columnists tap their best contacts to explore the biggest issues driving business and markets today. Every Tuesday, Global Editor Peter Thal Larse...
podcasts.apple.com
June 17, 2025 at 7:02 AM
So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Reposted by George Hay
VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules
“These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions”
Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
“These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions”
Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
on.ft.com
April 10, 2025 at 8:17 PM
VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules
“These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions”
Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
“These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions”
Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
Reposted by George Hay
In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal.
“[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
“[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
April 10, 2025 at 8:17 PM
In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal.
“[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
“[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
Reposted by George Hay
💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com
“It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back"
on.ft.com/429u02T
“It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back"
on.ft.com/429u02T
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
on.ft.com
April 10, 2025 at 8:12 PM
💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com
“It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back"
on.ft.com/429u02T
“It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back"
on.ft.com/429u02T
Reposted by George Hay
The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction."
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
Breakingviews - US auto tariffs zoom past economic speed limit
Donald Trump is threatening to drive the U.S. auto industry so hard that the wheels fall off. In a Wednesday press conference, the president announced25% tariffs on cars and parts, endangering a border-hopping global supply chain. The touted tolls could be enough to total carmakers’ collective profit. Autos are strategically valuable, but this goes too far, too fast.
www.reuters.com
March 27, 2025 at 5:54 AM
The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction."
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
Reposted by George Hay
March 25, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Reposted by George Hay
Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s
March 14, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s
Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️
Breakingviews - How the World Bank can defend itself from Trump
Up until two years ago, Ajay Banga had spent most of his career in the private sector – as a banker at Citigroup and latterly as the CEO of Mastercard . Now the World Bank president finds himself having to defend one of the linchpins of the liberal international order against President Donald Trump, who last month ordered a government review that could see the United States quit as the 81-year-old institution’s top shareholder. Yet Banga has arguments and hard facts on his side, which could help him appeal to U.S. self-interest.
www.reuters.com
March 12, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️
Reposted by George Hay
Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning.
Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it!
Michael.savage@theguardian.com
Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it!
Michael.savage@theguardian.com
NEW: There’s a crisis in the TV industry. People with 10, 20 even 30 years experience are now stacking shelves, working in pubs, using up savings - even selling houses.
It’s the talk of the TV world. An industry crisis in plain sight.
Many factors at play - but this is not normal.
Story:
It’s the talk of the TV world. An industry crisis in plain sight.
Many factors at play - but this is not normal.
Story:
Senior TV producers take shelf-stacking jobs as UK industry remains in crisis
Experienced figures doing entry-level roles amid prolonged work drought since Covid and rise of online content
www.theguardian.com
March 8, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning.
Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it!
Michael.savage@theguardian.com
Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it!
Michael.savage@theguardian.com
Reposted by George Hay
There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.
March 4, 2025 at 9:45 PM
There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.
Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack…
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Abrdn finds its missing vowels but not value
New CEO Jason Windsor is renaming the $4.2 bln fund group Aberdeen and pledging to boost profit. Both steps are welcome but come amidst tricky markets and growing competition from index funds. Small w...
www.breakingviews.com
March 4, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack…
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.
February 28, 2025 at 2:50 PM
A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.
Reposted by George Hay
A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
UK could lure US talent with a ‘non-Don’ regime
Britain has upset expats by ditching ‘non-dom’ rules that allowed them to swerve tax on offshore wealth. It could replace them by luring healthcare experts and scientists alienated by President Donald...
www.breakingviews.com
February 22, 2025 at 8:11 AM
A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Reposted by George Hay
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump's penchant for a deal.
www.reuters.com
February 7, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...
Reposted by George Hay
From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...
AI giants’ less-is-more logic bears three caveats
Breakthroughs in building cheaper silicon smarts threaten tech firms enjoying a spending boom. Microsoft’s CEO offered comfort in a 160-year-old observation that efficiency gains stoked coal demand. F...
www.breakingviews.com
February 4, 2025 at 12:29 PM
From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...
Reposted by George Hay
In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff:
1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
Some Friday afternoon thoughts on what rising gilt yields mean for the Chancellor
ifs.org.uk/articles/rac...
ifs.org.uk/articles/rac...
Rachel Reeves’ new year predicament | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Rising interest rates could put the government on track to miss its fiscal rules. What are the Chancellor’s options?
ifs.org.uk
January 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff:
1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
Reposted by George Hay
This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.
January 10, 2025 at 4:51 PM
This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.
Reposted by George Hay
You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.
January 8, 2025 at 9:03 PM
You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.
Reposted by George Hay
Probably the biggest disconnect in markets:
-houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans
-the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage
-you can't get a mortgage without insurance
- insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
-houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans
-the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage
-you can't get a mortgage without insurance
- insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
January 8, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Probably the biggest disconnect in markets:
-houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans
-the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage
-you can't get a mortgage without insurance
- insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
-houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans
-the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage
-you can't get a mortgage without insurance
- insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
Reposted by George Hay
It's well-known that mature tech firms (Stripe, SpaceX etc.) have been delaying going public. But a boom in off-market share sales raises an intriguing new possibility: the perpetually private startup. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
How private share sales could kill the tech IPO
Databricks, Stripe and Elon Musk’s $350 bln SpaceX facilitated large exits by insiders without a float. There’s a growing pool of patient capital targeting mature startups. The bigger the trend gets, ...
www.breakingviews.com
January 8, 2025 at 12:12 PM
It's well-known that mature tech firms (Stripe, SpaceX etc.) have been delaying going public. But a boom in off-market share sales raises an intriguing new possibility: the perpetually private startup. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Reposted by George Hay
Here is 11 hours of almost unbroken tweeting by Elon Musk, starting at midnight GMT/7pm EST on Monday. How is he getting anything else done?
January 7, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Here is 11 hours of almost unbroken tweeting by Elon Musk, starting at midnight GMT/7pm EST on Monday. How is he getting anything else done?
Reposted by George Hay
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt
The US hedge fund manager wants to boot out the board at seven UK investment companies. His fund Saba, which bet against the London Whale, is no stranger to targeting underperforming funds. The growin...
www.breakingviews.com
January 7, 2025 at 1:15 PM
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Reposted by George Hay
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status
The US surgeon general wants health warnings on alcohol bottles. Declining drinking rates have already shrunk the valuations of brewers like Carlsberg to 12 times forward earnings, nearing tobacco lev...
www.breakingviews.com
January 7, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Reposted by George Hay
Are alcohol companies the new tobacco companies? Almost, according to their valuations
January 7, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Are alcohol companies the new tobacco companies? Almost, according to their valuations